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Iran to buy SU-30MK

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posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 02:34 AM
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www.nxtbook.com...


haven`t seen it mentioned but it appears that Iran is on the verge of a *large* fighter order to update there fleet.

Interesting news somewhat!




posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 04:20 AM
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A very good find!
250 Su-30s would put a twist in everyone's shorts..
Israel,Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, US, Turkey..

It would most definitely make the Iranians a very prominent power with deep striking capabilities!

A definite balance-shifter this deal would be!



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 04:39 AM
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Its one thing to own these planes, its another to be able to fly or use them properly.



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 06:52 AM
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Originally posted by Chorlton
Its one thing to own these planes, its another to be able to fly or use them properly.



And why wouldn't they be able to do either of those things?



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 06:56 AM
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An order for ~250 Flankers is indeed exessive, I wonder if the Russians have offered some type of deal which reduces the price per airframe. Indeed it would change the balance of power in the ME but how long would such a deal take to compleate? More than a decade I think, Israel will be getting the F-35 and who knows what else if this deal goes through...



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 06:59 AM
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Originally posted by RichardPrice
And why wouldn't they be able to do either of those things?


I tend to think they would. Given a little initial Russian training concerning the Flankers they would likely be very good (relatively) at conducting their ops. Iranian pilots are not inept and they have proved that point in recent history.



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 07:23 AM
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Dont get me wrong, I think that war is terrible, but:

If Iran orders these aircraft, a future conflict between the US and Iran would be infinately more interesting. This is the first time I can safely say that the IrAF has a chance, due to the number of air bases Iran has acess to. They can probably get a lot of them in the air at once. The US is going to have a run for its money. The only thing that tips the scales in my mind is the 5th generation fighters on the US's side. EDIT: Oh, and the US navy.

The US CANNOT CANNOT CANNOT let the insurgents know that the F-22 is there...it will become the biggest target yet. A couple of mortars in the wrong spot...a lot of money down the drain. They have to come quietly, at night...and be in hangars all day.



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 09:50 AM
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Perhaps the Iranians are going to barter the last of their Tomcats as part of the deal?


Seriously this could be such a balance shifter that the US may be forced to sell Israel the F-22 as a guaranteed counter to this. Given that she herself will be stretched with only a couple of hundred Raptors this becomes a way of having a kind of de facto forward basing in the region. Other local air forces may not be happy with F-35 as a counter to this large purchase, and some like the UAE are shrewd purchasers. They may press for something better.

What is more interesting is the impact this would have on USN carrier group opps in the region. Given that the Navy's current fleet now lacks, and for the forseable future will, a decent air superiority aircraft, they will have to sit well outside the radius of the Flankers and their ordanance, or beef up considerably the carrier groups anti air warfare capabillity. This is tricky territory as the operating radius of the F-35C and FA-18E holds no real advantage over the big Sukhoi, especially if the Iranians purchase any of the Russian anti ship missile family. In particular any of the high speed versions, and I will guarantee that they will as an anti ship capabillity will be a central pillar of the whole "raison d'etre" for buying the SU-30 and choking the straits of Hormuz. Thereby further forcing the USN carrier groups to remain outside at a descent standoff distance or face the unpalatable choice of running the gauntlet. Additionally if fitted with any of the later Russian AESA's the Super Hornet in particular is going to be vulnerable. And well, we dont have to talk about the kinematic differences between the FA-18E/F-35 and the Flanker family.

In a nutshell, this could lead to the US loosening the reins on the export of the F-22 to at least Israel, and allowing a more capable, or even full capabillity F-35 to select Middle East countries. In addition it may just be a catalyst, along with a future carrier capable PLA-N, to force the issue of why the USN no longer has the clear advantage of a superior fleet interceptor aircraft. Will this see the revival of the NATF? Probably not, but it may well see another aircraft developed, particularly if the F-35 doesn't live up to expectations and/or is cut in favour of more Super Hornets. Perhaps something like the Japanese crash stealth program idea that has just been raised again could be a pointer of things to come. One thing for sure is that this is going to be a very interesting situation to watch in the next few years.

LEE.



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 02:03 PM
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And I suspect that is exactly what the Russians want.
I had the same thoughts in the thread which speculated the sale of MiG-31FE a/c to Syria.

It puts pressure on the US to release the F-22 in the ME and thats what the Russians are getting at IMHO

The Su-30MK however has no TVC or canards.
Also I believe it lacks the N011M Bars PESA, which will be the real balance shifter IMO.

Having said that, 250 Su-30 would make Iran the most powerful AF in the ME.
and even beyond(Pakistan,Turkey,Central Asia).

250 is just a very very large number!



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 02:59 PM
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even if they get a number of MiG-29SK as well - its airframes in the air and say the get the KS-172 as well - then its anyones game.



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 03:50 PM
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Does Iran have any AEW systems? Or do they rely soley on GCI?


Information is control after all... while the Su-30 is good, its only as good as the information it has.



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 04:10 PM
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Originally posted by Daedalus3

The Su-30MK however has no TVC or canards.
Also I believe it lacks the N011M Bars PESA, which will be the real balance shifter IMO.


The Su-30MK does have canards (as the base MK export variant is actually now based off the M2), and the PESA radar comes as an option.

Chances are, if Iran do order 250 of this type, they will be able to specify whatever options they choose anyway - the MKI for example is a variant specific to India, while the MKM is specific to Malaysia, MKK for China, MKA for Algeria and they all differ in spec (not to say that those variants will remain exclusive to those countries, but they are at the moment).

The Su-30MK export variant is very much a pick and mix aircraft, with the purchasers customising the airframe to the role they will fill.



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 04:37 PM
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Originally posted by WestPoint23

I tend to think they would. Given a little initial Russian training concerning the Flankers they would likely be very good (relatively) at conducting their ops. Iranian pilots are not inept and they have proved that point in recent history.


Thats precisely my own view, so that question perplexes me even more.



posted on Jul, 26 2007 @ 10:50 PM
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Originally posted by thebozeian
....this could be such a balance shifter that the US may be forced to sell Israel the F-22 as a guaranteed counter to this.
......choking the straits of Hormuz.


IMHO, this acquisition is undoubtedly very threatening to the west and is most definitely going to force the export of the Raptor at the very least.

More important than the implications for US Navy ops in the area, is the ramifications of the possibility of blockading the flow of oil through the straits of Hormuz.

The US administration may well fear that possibility above all others. For instance, if the straits of Hormuz were blockaded for say, three months, what would be the effect on the US public, and their response.......? IMO this is a development that could ultimately lead to the nuclear option, as the straits of Hormuz constitute a trigger point for the west that could lead anywhere.

It is clear to me that the US has never had any intention of negotiating with Iran. The US has never even spoken to Iran (except via the UN) concerning their nuclear program. Even the recent bilateral 'talks' have only been about Iraq and the most recent round ended before it had begun when the US opened the 'discussion' with a barrage of accusations and the Iranians walked out. Unilateral demands do NOT equal diplomacy.

Perhaps it's time for the US to actually talk AND NEGOTIATE with Iran, rather than just accusing them and provoking them.

The Winged Wombat



posted on Jul, 27 2007 @ 12:13 AM
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Originally posted by RichardPrice

The Su-30MK does have canards (as the base MK export variant is actually now based off the M2), and the PESA radar comes as an option.



I don't think so. The MK export version does NOT come with canards.
KnaaPo says so themselves:
Su-30MK
Su-30MK2
Infact the only canard fitted versions are the MKI and the MKM.

The N011M PESA does come as an option but its more of a political option that Russia reserves the right to export.
Again the only versions with the N011M are the MKI and the MKM.
Infact the MKM is more or less a copy of the MKI, except for athe lack of some homegrown(Here Indian) electronic systems

The Iranianson the other hand, would not be getting any 3rd party systems(built by companies in Israel,France,India) making their MKs wholely Russian(a def disadvantage).



Chances are, if Iran do order 250 of this type, they will be able to specify whatever options they choose anyway - the MKI for example is a variant specific to India, while the MKM is specific to Malaysia, MKK for China, MKA for Algeria and they all differ in spec (not to say that those variants will remain exclusive to those countries, but they are at the moment).


Again ordering 250 of the MKI caliber would be quite expensive as compared to any of the lesser versions. I don't know what Iran's military budget is but this will cause a major dent if not more.

What's more 250 MKs of the MKI caliber would pose a credible threat to the Russian mainland as well, with these a/c anyways having a internal fuel combat reach almost right upto the Kremlin!
It would be wise for Russia to not sell them the best MK suite for obvious reasons.
Due to this factor,and others, IMO Iran will not get the full weapons suite that he MK can carry.

Nevertheless, 250 MKs are still a balance shifter even if they're all base versions. The real force multiplier lies in the PESA and the weapons package
though.
Lets wait and see.

Somebody asked if the Iranian a/c are GCI based or AEW. As of now they're most definitely GCI based.
However if they get anything of the likes of the N011M PESA then the MK airframes themselves become AEW platforms!


If this goes through(MKI or not), I believe this is the most destabilising sale Russia will have made till date. Even more destabilising than the Cuban missile crisis.

250 Su-30s! You can easily level a nation(ironically of the size of Iran) with firepower like that. And that too at a ~1500km throwing range!
The best part is its all conventional. No nuclear compromieses here.


This is a very very serious piece of info if true.



posted on Jul, 27 2007 @ 12:32 AM
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So Bush and Putin recently meet and Russia is going to sell a bunch of top of the line fighters to Iran?? There is going to be problems down the road with Russia if it continues to do things like this. For a nation that is a somewhat friend they sure are doing some rotten things as a friend.



posted on Jul, 27 2007 @ 07:38 AM
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Originally posted by Daedalus3
The Iranianson the other hand, would not be getting any 3rd party systems(built by companies in Israel,France,India) making their MKs wholely Russian(a def disadvantage).



Well, that could be seen as gaining leverage with the Iranian government.

So, some French, Indian etc stuff might go on it.



posted on Jul, 27 2007 @ 07:39 AM
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Originally posted by pavil
So Bush and Putin recently meet and Russia is going to sell a bunch of top of the line fighters to Iran?? There is going to be problems down the road with Russia if it continues to do things like this. For a nation that is a somewhat friend they sure are doing some rotten things as a friend.



The Russian's could say the exact same thing... indeed, probably with greater justification, about the ABM silos to be placed in Poland.



What goes around comes around, I think Dubya Bush & co are starting to feel the back end of alot of their policies.



posted on Jul, 27 2007 @ 10:24 AM
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Don't get your panties in a bunch. First of all, this deal hasn't gone through and if it does, we all know that Iran just says threats and ajmedinajed or however you spell his name has stated BS for a long time saying how he can wipe Israel off the map. I believe that Iran is still no match for Israel in a war and even if it was, Israel has got the U.S. behind its back. Tehran can say whatever it wants about how it can beat Israel and stuff, but when push comes to shove, it is no match for the U.S. This won't force exporting the F-22, F-35's can deal with Flankers. Of course Israel is going to say it needs them, they probably want Iran to get better aircraft to have an excuse to buy the Raptor. I just hope our leaders won't fall for that trick, as half the order will probably be paid for by OUR taxpaying money.



posted on Jul, 27 2007 @ 02:30 PM
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Originally posted by pavil
So Bush and Putin recently meet and Russia is going to sell a bunch of top of the line fighters to Iran?? There is going to be problems down the road with Russia if it continues to do things like this. For a nation that is a somewhat friend they sure are doing some rotten things as a friend.


Just to take a look at this comment, let's pull back and see a couple parts of the bigger picture.

1) Iran is not an enemy of Russia, or of the United States as of yet. Iran wants to buy planes from someone. Russia wants to sell planes to someone. United States probably does not want to sell planes to Iran. Logically, if you want large numbers with a lower budget, Russian a/c are a better bet than most others. Iran should therefore buy planes from Russia. Russia wants a quick economy boost. 250 Su-30 MKs will give you a 7.5 to maybe 10 million US dollar kick in the pants. That's a pretty hefty sum, and will probably dispel any tension between the two countries. Besides, so long as the United States doesn't attack, the Su's won't be used. But judging by Bush's claims in the last little while it is a good idea for the Iranians to buy defense.

I know that's a really jumbled paragraph, but the idea is to say that there is no reason for Russia not to sell aircraft to Iran.

2) If Iran gets a load of aircraft and takes a general air superiority over the ME region, Israel will get the Raptor, or at least the watered down version. This is so far my belief, and I think it's fairly valid. But what this means is that all the other little countries around there will probably start shaking in the boots and wanting some way to defend themselves. I'm willing to bet that the Russians will swoop down and offer them cheap aircraft to defend their skies. Quick $$$, no? Motivation, maybe?

3) Something like this promotes a war. Of course, one of the first things Iran will likely do if they are attacked is blockade the Strait of Hormuz (this may also result in other ME nations to stop exporting oil to the United States, and the wells in Texas may or may not export less oil due to the need to lube the American war machine). Here we now have a widespread oil shortage. This will at least temporarily put oil at a premium. Russia exports oil, right? $$$.

Altogether, this is one of the most effective ways to get the Russian economy going again. Not only does it have merit as an instant cash injection, but also if war does break out (and of course, having 250 Su-30s is NOT going to prod the US into action. Not at all. Never.) the Russians will be in an even better position for more money. Can't say I blame them for this move, it's pretty smart. It could give them hotels on Park Place and the Boardwalk.

Sorry if my writing's a bit out of style, I'm currently sailing to Stockholm, Sweden, and my brain doesn't work right at low altitudes/high pressures.



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