economic future LOSE-LOSE

ok let me put it this way

there will be a recession at minimum but for the middle class it may seem like a depression

the economy is in between a rock and a hard place

numerous articles spell this out

we are either headed for deflation or hyperinflation. and when the added money spewed into the economy reaches the point where you get a disproportinate increase in cost of goods when compared with the prices of houses and stocks then the fed will act. and based on barnacke's MO he will chose hyperinflation. and yes we will take the global economy down into a recession but the elite will remain powerful and the middle class will take a beating that will be rememberd for a looonngggg time.

there are talks of 3 regional currency's the euro , a pan-asain currency, and also something like the Amero. i'll take my chances with metals

WAKE UP THE RIDE IS coming to an end between 4 and 18 months
it depends on wether we can sustain a little more of a inflation cycle and find just a little more space between that rock and hard place but wether it's this fall or next year the realists know, the elite want you in the dark so they can take more advantage of your sudden hardships

this is not a conspiracy per se, this is the reality of politics and democracy's attitude on fiscal policy. i.e well if we keep postponing the slowing of the economy we won't be the one's in office when there was a little recession so we will get re-elected and pass the buck to the future, well this has been done so long, and the "buck" get bigger and badder each time and now we are backed into a corner.

intrest rates will be lowered the dollar will weaken and prices oh they be goin up up and away. buy gold buy silver buy platinum buy ammo buy food buy water get a visa and move for a few years

here we go blah blah blah blah.

economy going down again, recession, blah.

LEts see. China growth 11%.
US? 3%?
Australia 3.75%

Australia is 82 cents to the american dollar (which is good for the ausssie dollar. very good indeed.
but estimates it will be back down to like 70 cents or worse in a year or two.

There is a big economic boom around the world. And it's still going.
Employement levels are? well i believe the US is pretty low like 5% or something.
Australia sitting on 4.5% i think...
Jobs growth is high.

But as you say "Wham bam were are n for a resseccion/depression"

Gimme a break... doomsday sayer.

Originally posted by DaRAGE
here we go blah blah blah blah.

economy going down again, recession, blah.

LEts see...

iawtc. just another chicken little that this forum is depressingly full of. he doesn't even make a half-decent excuse for non-citation of his sources (one can't cite what doesn't exist).



[Mod Edit: Entire quote of preceeding quote removed. Insult removed - T&C's section 2 - Jak]

[edit on 13/5/07 by JAK]

I tend to agree, the impending economic disaster you speak of is just fear mongering. Market forces are strong, however they may be vulnerable pending a major incident. I think some of this stuff could happen in the event of a major natural disaster, huge trade issues with china, or a terrorist strike.

Originally posted by uberarcanist


iawtc. just another chicken little that this forum is depressingly full of. he doesn't even make a half-decent excuse for non-citation of his sources (one can't cite what doesn't exist).

Excuse me Mr but i'd like to see some evidence that the Economic Future is a LOSE LOSE then.

How about back it up by some facts?
Evidence?

Instead of hornswoggleing me when i do it right back.

3.75% is expected economic growth of Australia for the next year (fact published in last weeks newspapers all accross Australia as presented by Peter Costello after doing the federal budget.

4.5% unemployed in australia... down .5 percent
Link

well thats just a few facts anyways....

just typing american unemployemnt rate in google comes up with
United States — Unemployment Rate: 4.8% (2006 Est.)
According to www.cia.gov...

when back in 2003 it was 5.9% as google tells...
The unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent, the lowest level since March. ... "Millions of American workers still do not have jobs, and our nation has lost ...
money.cnn.com/2003/12/05/news/economy/jobs/index.htm - 44k

Bush adviser sees 3.3-3.4 pct GDP growth in 2006 - Jan. 18, 2006. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The economy ... A project of the Center for American Progress ...
budgetblog.americanprogress.org/2006/01/18/hubbard-33-34-percent-gdp-growth-in-2006/ - 13k - Cached - Similar pages

Latin American and Caribbean Economic Growth Will Exceed 5% in 2006Continued regional GDP growth for 2007 rests on a sound domestic ... Latin American and Caribbean Countries Consolidate Improvements in Fiscal Accounts ...
www.eclac.org/.../prensa/noticias/comunicados/0/27580/P27580.xml&xsl=/prensa/tpl-


DO i need to say anymore?

growth growth growth

SHOW ME FACTS THAT THE WORLD IS GOING INTO RECESSION?? DEPRESSION? IN 4 -18 MONTHS TIME??



[Mod Edit: Link Format. Please see this post. Thank you - Jak]

[edit on 13/5/07 by JAK]

let me clarify: this will hit america first and foremost

i don't thnk this news will be taken happilly but for the love of god anyone with a decent education and econmic background can see this is inevitable i guess no one wants the masses to know

amerca's twin deficit and slowing consumer spending will not be able to keep the economy stable much longer

use what ever numbers you like to cover it up, the bottom line is the fed has been thrusting new money into the economy to keep consumers spending going strong. we are borrowing from other countries to keep us afloat, and they have been financing our debt in dollars just because if they don't they know there economies will take a hit as well. so everytime the dollar falls to near the benchmark of 81 people buy it up. ok now problem you say. let the good times roll oh they've rolled they've rolled in between a rock and a hard place.

as ludwig von mises stated and any economist will know

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

some say potatoe some say potatooo

the fed had a report saying "consumer spending soars"

The Federal Reserve's report, released Monday, showed consumer credit increased at a swift annual rate of 6.7 percent in March. That marked a rise from February's 2.8 percent growth rate and was the biggest increase since November


Use of revolving credit, primarily credit cards, rose at a the hot pace of 9.2 percent in March. That was up from a 2.9 percent growth rate in February and was the biggest increase since November.

as Kevin Depew from minyanville.com put it

You have to give the consumer some credit. No, seriously, you have to because that's apparently how they're paying their bills.

So consumers "showed resilience" by borrowing at the fastest pace in four months... while the economy grew at its slowest pace in four years? Huh? We don't think this is resilience at all. It's desperation

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com... as Michael Shedlock states

Perhaps revolving credit is soaring because of high energy prices. Unable or unwilling to extract mortgage equity, but still needing to meet mortgage obligations, rising food prices, and rising gasoline prices, consumers simply said "Charge-It".

awake yet? if not go back to bed because when perception is reality and those have the luxury of putting there head in the sand and peceiving everything is ok, even those will here the alarm (the survival alarm) when the perception is reality abstraction reaches the breaking points , albeit after they've overslept

p.s

“In a bull market and particularly in booms the public at first makes money which it later loses simply by overstaying the bull market…The big money in booms is always made first by the public-on paper. And it remains on paper.” – Edwin Lefèvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. 1923

the financial "strategists" are going to tell you the market is going up because it gives them time to get out unscathed . THE graph they don't want you to see is the DJIA adjusted for inflation, this will show you the DJ runs in cycles and that this one peaked in 2000, and as the housing economy ripples are sent down to the hedge fund community and then down to the brokers like Goldman Sachs and Morgan stanley who are about to cash out

[edit on 13-5-2007 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by cpdaman
The Federal Reserve's report, released Monday, showed consumer credit increased at a swift annual rate of 6.7 percent in March. That marked a rise from February's 2.8 percent growth rate and was the biggest increase since November

Right and Q4 of 2006 is only ½ point lower than Q1 2007; not much to spin here…

Originally posted by cpdaman
Use of revolving credit, primarily credit cards, rose at a the hot pace of 9.2 percent in March. That was up from a 2.9 percent growth rate in February and was the biggest increase since November.

OK…very short term comparisons are almost useless when comparing economic data sets especially when being used to ‘divine a prediction’ of sorts.

The Q1 average will still come in 2 points lower than the 2002 and the 2006 average, in fact if you compare 2007 seasonalized to annual data, all the numbers are coming in lower than 2006….the economy didn’t screech to a halt then…

A significant drop in renters over the past few years (12 points) would of course affect the credit market as well, but the lending is from pooled assets (almost half of all US household debt) which will accrue equity overtime.

Consumer real net worth per capita has been rising and still is rising, not falling. The bottom quartile has been stagnant (pdf.) since the mid 90’s and no change is expected over the horizon…yet household assets have been far outpacing household liabilities for several years (especially for the remaining 75 percent of the nation) and financial assets still remain larger than one third of total household assets despite the market hiccup a few years back.

On that note, there is a tendency to throw in the low 2001-2004 average into net worth figures by nay-sayers; throw-out “the bust” numbers and the growth is as expected; the market took a hit and so did personal assets in the short run, go figure…

Originally posted by cpdaman
as ludwig von mises stated and any economist will know

Not every economist supports his theories…That’s quote is from his theory printed around the turn of the century (1900’s), he was pressing for an "inflation free" gold standard internationally. Not to mention, there are far, far more driving forces behind the US economy and multiple controls and trip-wires in place.

His theories would eventually evolve to include this:

Expansion of free markets, the division of labor, and private capital investment is the only possible path to the prosperity and flourishing of the human race---Von Mises

He was “anti-bank” and considered banks as malevolent lenders and the drivers of inflation; he’s better known for the prediction of the collapse of socialism and his free market stuff…(which has regained popularity with the Liberterians) not credit market/debt analysis…especially in this day and age where now there are hundreds of options "other" than banks for lending...
By the way…how would one acquire this capital investment he mentions? Hmmm….Debt!

Also this same old argument arises year after year…

The amount of (pessimistic) nonsense that is written about the U.S. economy is truly extraordinary. The usual rap is that the U.S. is borrowing its way into oblivion--and eventually we are going to get our come-uppance when the dollar plunges and no one wants to lend to us anymore…. Business Week 2006

The debt to GDP ratio as been much, much higher than it is now, consumer household debt is not unmanageable or greater than household worth, people also tend to think of the trade deficit like some form of a checkbook debit/credit balance and do not know how it is figured and what the numbers really mean…not to mention people generally look at the size of the numbers and freak and do not compare them to scale…but on scale economic indicators have been much, much worse in the US historically.


mg

real net worth per capital is rising?

care to explain what misleading ratio the author used to calculate "house hold net worth" gee that article is from over *8* months ago before the housing slide, also look at the reader comments at the bottom of the page, very telling. interesting to note the author coined the real net worth per capita to dream something up that supports his belief

but i am not hear to change opinions

we agree to disagree

the more people that are in the dark about this thing the longer to the economy implodes as well as the more insiders that can get out unscathed or cash in

2008 will be a hell of a year or vice versa



[edit on 13-5-2007 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by cpdaman
real net worth per capital is rising?

Yes, the blog you linked utilizes the same source.

In March 2007 the Federal Reserve presented the data:

Household net worth (net of all assets minus all liabilities) increased by nearly 8% (US 4.9 trillion) to a national sum of US$53.8 trillion Q3 2006…. the Q4 2006 numbers…a bit higher at US$55.6 trillion…. which are the latest numbers….

Complete report: here.

The Federal Reserve also commissions studies from universities (such as those by NORC) and complete data sets will be available when published.

Originally posted by cpdaman
care to explain what misleading ratio the author used to calculate "house hold net worth" gee that article is from over *8* months ago before the housing slide, also look at the reader comments at the bottom of the page, very telling.

No, the article serves to reinforce my original point (notice I included the year on the link, I’m sure there are older one’s available but you were using 2006 comparisons)….this is a tired argument that has existed for years if not decades…

Originally posted by cpdaman
the more people that are in the dark about this thing the longer to the economy implodes as well as the more insiders that can get out unscathed or cash in

Please explain this new implosion.

mg

as to the same old negtive nonsense spouted off every year:

those are the economists who had been looking at the long term

they knew the fed would be backing themselves into a corner and that sooner or later there would be no wiggle room, they just werent sure how long till that occurs i.e how many more cycle's of inflation the economy could handle before finding itself in the NO WIGGLE ROOM ZONE

and when there expansion of the monetary supply begins to disproportinately (in a negative way) effect the price of assets (housing, stocks) RELATIVE to the cost of goods will begin to rise and then we will have reached that zone. and then the fed will have to act

they know this, those in financial institutions know this, the general public not so much

this is going to be such a devestating problem to the nation that the already planned solution is the AMERO and the recession/depression will be sudden and bad enough the people will beg for the AMERO. there will possibly be a false flag during this slide and a police state will be in order. 2008 hell of a year.

[edit on 14-5-2007 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by cpdaman
as to the same old negtive nonsense spouted off every year:

those are the economists who had been looking at the long term

Wow…where does one begin?!?...especially given your earlier supporting premised argument using an economist's theory nearing a century old?

Unfortunately, the rest of the unfounded assumptions are pure tripe until proven otherwise. Better luck digging-up a thread (many of which that have claimed this same argument on this site) and locating at least a morsal of founded truth....until then...

Adios


mg

How did you determine this, cpdaman? Do you have any education in economics, or did you just read this off of a couple news articles?

One theory I havent heard mentioned in any of these economics threads is Nikolai Kondratieff's Long Wave theory...what happened in the great depression was a 'true depression' and what we have seen since is upward/downward wave recession adjustments and seems to be a 'natural frequency' when you look at the bigger picture. Sure there's a huge depression looming when the credit markets go bust, but it wont be the end of global trade, just a massive corrective adjustment to bring the market back into true equilibrium.

Save your assets; as Baron Rothschild is reported to have said, "I invest only when I hear the sound of cannon fire and see blood running in the streets. I sell when I hear the sound of the violins.

Originally posted by DaRAGE
here we go blah blah blah blah.

economy going down again, recession, blah.

LEts see. China growth 11%.
US? 3%?
Australia 3.75%

Australia is 82 cents to the american dollar (which is good for the ausssie dollar. very good indeed.
but estimates it will be back down to like 70 cents or worse in a year or two.

There is a big economic boom around the world. And it's still going.
Employement levels are? well i believe the US is pretty low like 5% or something.
Australia sitting on 4.5% i think...
Jobs growth is high.

But as you say "Wham bam were are n for a resseccion/depression"

Gimme a break... doomsday sayer.

good grief, talk about spewing garbage straight from the NWO's rear end.

Allow me to translate this putridness into the truth....

countries define "growth" as GDP. This means CORPORATIONS are doing better. However this does NOT translate into good news for workers or the economy in general.

The unemployment numbers really make me laugh. Those are measured by the number of folks currently collecting unemployment benefits. What it DOESNT count are the folks who run out of unemployment benefits and still are jobless. There are millions of americans who simply fall off the books and arent counted anymore

The true unemployment rate is much much higher. According to many different sources Ive read, its more like 15-20% of americans are unemployed. And example can be seen in Detroit, a city devastated by the auto industries move to mexico. The govt tells us Detroit has 12% uneployment but in reality its closer to 60%. Ask any real estate agent if they believe the govt numbers when they cant sell a house because nobody has income

Now lets factor in another number those bogus "facts" you report left out. We have something called UNDERemployment nowadays. This refers to the folks who lost their $75,000 a yr jobs and now work for $12,000. There are millions of americans who fall under this new category. People like my friend, a lawyer who now works at KMart because his job went overseas. Again reports say about 20% of americans fall into this category.

So in reality only 60% of americans have a job that pays a living wage. The rest are immensely struggling to make ends meet

Lets look at the loss of overtime pay. How about the fact that americans are more productive than ever but theyre pay remains the same (while corporate executives pay rises to ridiculous levels). Look at the disappearing pension plans and how about them coming after our social security (and they'll get it eventually).

Finally, inflation....nuff said. The hidden tax we all suffer under. Our dollar in 1913 today is worth 4 cents. Thats one heck of a tax on us.

So in conclusion, yes the economy is doing fine if your name ends in Rockefeller or your a member of Skull an Bones society elite. But if your middle class or lower, well you get to work harder for less pay, less benefits with no end in site

Originally posted by admriker444
The true unemployment rate is much much higher. According to many different sources Ive read, its more like 15-20% of americans are unemployed.

You're right about the sad state of our economy. It's running on fumes now. When the bills from the war come due, you will see the bottom drop out.

A better indicator of unemployment might be the "labor participation rate," defined as the proportion of adult males who are employed in a full-time job(37 hours a week or more). The last time I checked it was down to around 50%.

it will be very intresting when china's investment fund managing 300 billion of dollars gets launched later this year, they're purpose was to find a way to find avenues that will give them a better return on investment, this fund is thought of as having a higher risk profile and is rumoured to invenst in energy as well as "emerging markets"

the chinese want a return on there investment and basically if u read how dependant we have become on foreigners especially the japanese and chinese you will see how china's huge investment fund's diversifying will show a lack of confidence in the dollar's future. and this will mean less money coming into the economy less money loaned back to us.

this may be related to a lack of

their belief that the U.S. government can continue to sustain low inflation without having to resort to growth-crushing interest-rate hikes as a means of ensuring continued high capital inflows.

www.foreignaffairs.org...

also what are the signs that the real inflation rate may be increasing i.e when the increase in money supply no longer contributes to a rising price of assets such as houses and stocks

well when china's invenstement fund launches and if consumer spending hit's the brakes, this may be the domino that gets the economic "correction" started

and then the stock market takes a dive. but not before billions of dollars have been shifed from one class to another through massive equity bubbles -but alas that's always the plan

when consumer spending slows and foreign investment slows then all the cheap credit that finances the stock market will evaporate and well it will be a sad day unless of course you are looking forward to this like

the carlye groups managing director William conway junior and the rest of the elite's who warns

“This cheap debt has been available for almost all maturities, most industries, infrastructure, real estate and at all levels of the capital structure.” (But) “this liquidity environment cannot go on forever. The longer it lasts, the worse it will be when it ends…….Of course when ends, the buying opportunity will be once in a lifetime."

the foreign affair article relates the dollar to an "absurdity"

As for the United States, it needs to perpetuate the sound money policies of former Federal Reserve Chairs Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan and return to long-term fiscal discipline. This is the only sure way to keep the United States' foreign tailors, with their massive and growing holdings of dollar debt, feeling wealthy and secure. It is the market that made the dollar into global money -- and what the market giveth, the market can taketh away. If the tailors balk and the dollar fails, the market may privatize money on its own.

www.foreignaffairs.org...

well it seems that people's burying there heads in the sand actually does delay an actual economic recession but it doesnot erase it. and that thinking positively helps keep the economy strong but as our country is more suseptible to foreign investment holding changes it may soon be out of our hands


i would hope the chineese investment fund continues to invest in a similiar rate with the american dollar, but i would be surprised (pleasantly)

buy gold, buy guns, or move this will get ugly and probably sooner than later.
the storm winds will blow so hard that all the sand surrounding your head will be displaced

[edit on 19-5-2007 by cpdaman]