Originally posted by Frimurar
I take FreiMaurers position on this at least in part. First his point was that the London Bullion is predicting that gold has neared its peak at
least for this year.
Peaking? With Gold currently trading at $645? I believe it's safe to say that Gold isn't even close to peaking for the year. Bear in mind that this
is only March 7.
Actually, FreiMaurers presented a contest of sorts. Analysts participating in an annual PM forecast (winner receives a 1 ounce Gold bar). Submitted
predictions range from $550 to $750 US as an "average" POG for the current year - 2007. The operable word here is "average".
To say that experts are predicting four prices that you give is to ignore that about 20 experts who set the market are saying
First, they don't "set" the market...second, I didn't quote four prices. I offered a four figure target price of $1600 - $1650 as Gold's eventual
blow-off top...not as a yearly average for 2007...and it's important to remember that $1600 - $1650 is the conservative estimate...
...a $700 to
$750 average for this year fits nicely here...and consider that Gold hasn't traded at these levels since 1980.
Did I mention that the 2006 gold bar winner; Ross Norman...also submitted the $750 bid for 2007.
Many analysts have agendas, as do those in England, but the fundamentals don't lie.
Their averaged predictions are usually on the mark and over the last few years have a trend of being accurate.
"Their" averaged predictions...plural? There is only one winner...that means nineteen miss the mark. The wining average has been rising yearly...and
will continue to rise.
I personally don't understand how gold will under perform for the reasons mentioned I see it as not under performing simply it is at its
You say this based on?.
The mining industry can't sustain the costs for much longer, oil is back up to above $60 USD and so on.
Have you ever noticed the symbiotic price relationship that exists between Gold & oil? Oil up...gold up? However, expect it to de-couple as it
approaches the top.
As I've mentioned, the fundamentals are strong, and this includes the current lag on the supply side. Demand is growing...production is down (South
Africa reported their lowest gold production in 82yrs -2006). The majors are scurrying to secure reserves, making mergers and take-overs the name of
the game going forward. This is precisely why the mid-tier, and exploration sectors so heated at present. Current price levels allow producers to mine
their lower grade deposits, saving the 'good stuff' for later. A bonus is the rise in the price of base metals ie...copper, lead, and zinc. The sale
of these 'by-product' metals further offsets production costs.
Even at $600 Gold or less, positively leveraged (unhedged) miners are well positioned to profit...as are their shareholders.
Concerning the gold standard and holding back growth there was suggested an article to read. It'd be nice if the article worked then we all
could read it.
Works for me...www.house.gov...
And lastly what you perceive as risk is not risk at all, even if you bought stock the day after the 1929 market crash you would still be
thousands of times richer today than what you spent on the equities then as long as you bought a company that continued to exist such as GE or various
banks and industrial companies. That type of long term security is far more than acceptable and far more stable than gold it is day traders and
speculators who give stocks an aura of risk.
So the market only carries the "aura' of risk.
Sorry, you're gonna have to try & feed that one to someone else friend. Are you a Broker? lol!
1929?...don't forget to adjust those long term gains for inflation.