The possible Iran vs. America scenario

Recently there has been very aggressive political stances being taken against Iran by the US and Britain, I have come across a very possible end gane scenario which is actually starting to take place right now.

This scenario was first implemented or drafted in August 2006 just before all the sh1t began to be collected to throw at the proverbial fan.


quote:
September 1st 2006 is the day the showdown starts. It is the day after the UN deadline passes whereby Iran has to categorically state that it is giving up its nuclear ambitions and will furthermore allow the decision to be independently verified. Iran refuses. After much negotiation and consultation, the UN decides to impose a watered-down set of sanctions on Iran. Iran meanwhile declares that it is accelerating its nuclear programme.

Intelligence sources inform the American and British governments that Iran is much closer to creating the enriched material needed for a nuclear weapon than previously thought. It is decided that military force has to be used to stop the programme, particularly in light of the Heathrow terror plot, the war in Lebanon and the Iranian leader’s repeated statements that Israel has to be destroyed. An attack is launched on Iran’s nuclear facilities wherever they are known to exist. In retaliation, Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and the price of oil rockets to 150 US Dollars a barrel.

The world economy comes to a shuddering halt because finally oil has reached a price that cannot be handled. America moves into a sharp recession, followed by China and the rest of the world. The price of gold hits 1 000 US Dollars an ounce, whilst the oil price continues to oscillate around 150 US Dollars until the Iranian issue is settled one way or another. Stock markets together with commodity prices other than oil and gold plunge.

If you give decent odds to this scenario, it’s better to be in gold, bonds and cash and not in the stock market.
end:

Please remember this is not my quote but bears some fruit in current political environment

it may well be handy to buy put-options then

Why only America vs. Iran. Does no one believe America will involve allies and possibly even NATO?

Originally posted by Prokurator
Why only America vs. Iran. Does no one believe America will involve allies and possibly even NATO?

Well IMHO - NO, America has set its course as wanting to go-alone so I think they will probably end up alone,

Growing sentiment is going to be the final outcome

The US will only go it alone if the UN pussies out again.

The UNSC members stated that harsher sanctions would happen if Iran did not meet the UNSC demands.

Now it is time to see whether the UN is a waste as previously thought.

Plus any attack would consist of large scale bombing not invasion. Military targets would be destroyed and attempts would be made to destroy the hardened underground bunkers.

[edit on 21-2-2007 by ferretman2]

The result of which would be Iranian retaliation, probably against US forces in Iraq and naval forces in the Gulf. Possibly even an attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz. And of course, the US will have to retaliate in turn... leading in the end to an eventual invasion and an occupation that makes Iraq look like a tea party.

There are no clean, easy military options for dealing with Iran. People who think we can keep it to a set of limited airstrikes and stop it at that are kidding themselves. Once the ball starts rolling, no-one knows where it will go.

And as far as the UN "pussying out" - nobody but the deluded fanatics still clinging to power in the US executive branch, and their campfollowers on the internet, thinks a war with Iran is going to be a positive development.

If the US goes to war with Iran, it will almost certainly be doing so alone.


[edit on 2/21/07 by xmotex]

Unless Turkey's cooperation to secure the western end of the Tblisi-Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline can be guaranteed, the assault on Iran won't take place.

Think about it...the vast majority of western-bound oil exports from the Persian-Gulf-bordering states pass through the Straits of Hormuz, the most strategic bottleneck in the whole arena that sees an average 16million b.p.d. shipped from the oilfields. It would only take one 'Sunburn' sunk tanker to severely restrict tanker-traffic in congested shallow-waters (there are 4 lanes of traffic through the straits..two 'lanes' in and two 'lanes' out) and that can't be allowed to happen. Hence the US giving Turkey the green-light to start a military campaign against potential insurgents and digruntled nationalist saboteurs (ie: the PKK).

As soon as the T.-B.-C. pipeline is deemed secure to continue the supply of oil to the US (and to a lesser extent Europe unless we p**s off the Russians that is) then nothing will happen and the sabre rattling from both sides will continue

Keep your eyes peeled for a sudden resumption in meddling (sorry, meant diplomacy) in Turkey/Georgia/Azeri affairs by Condi (et al) because I truely believe that as soon as that avenue of oil-export has been secured, all hell will be let loose in Persia

I've got a crisp $20 bill that i'll bet for an Iranian win, in which case that $20 will be worth about 67cents

[edit on 21-2-2007 by citizen smith]

I'll take that bet Smith!

lol....The Usa will destroy Iran's Army in a matter of hours, and they will not be alone. Israel will probably lead the assault if it comes to War.

We are still very formidible, regardless of being spread thin in the middle East and Afghanjstan. Trust me, Iran will be overwhelmed very quickly.

It's Russia and China that worries me.

Well Israel should lead the assault IMO, they are the ones who feel threatened by Iran's potential nuclear weapons production.

There just best be some damn good proof this time.

If nothing can move via the Straits of Hormuz, then what price is oil/petrol worth? Iran may lose a large part of its FORMALIZED military infrastructure, but in the last few years Iran has learnt that to fight an overwhelmingly superior opponent, it's militarymust be based on large scale 'Guerilla' force tactics with state of the art weaponry, and if that means forcing the price of oil to skyrocket on the international market by means of sinking a couple of tankers, thereby forcing up the cost of living here in the westerm world, then you can bet it will happen.
Think outside of the box, conflicts are waged on many more stages than just the military battlefield....if the price of oil goes up $10 then so does the cost of shipping goods from all points on the globe to your local supermarket.

Originally posted by citizen smith
If nothing can move via the Straits of Hormuz, then what price is oil/petrol worth? Iran may lose a large part of its FORMALIZED military infrastructure, but in the last few years Iran has learnt that to fight an overwhelmingly superior opponent, it's militarymust be based on large scale 'Guerilla' force tactics with state of the art weaponry, and if that means forcing the price of oil to skyrocket on the international market by means of sinking a couple of tankers, thereby forcing up the cost of living here in the westerm world, then you can bet it will happen.
Think outside of the box, conflicts are waged on many more stages than just the military battlefield....if the price of oil goes up $10 then so does the cost of shipping goods from all points on the globe to your local supermarket.

Citizen Smith,

I agree that a war with Iran will ultimately raise global crude prices out the roof. I also feel that there are three objectives that Israel and the us will try to accomplish.

The first objective will be to neutralize the Iranian Nuclear plant, much like what Israel did to Iraq's nuclear plant in Osiraq in 1981. I don't think this will be as difficult as most people believe.

Second, The US will want a regime change in Iran. This objective IMO will be difficult to achieve but will not take as long as people believe as well.

The third and most costly objective is that both the US and Israel will want to totally destroy Hezbollah once and for all. I don't think this is an achievable objective. However, hey will try nonetheless. THis objective will ultimately be the straw that breaks the camels back because, and I agree with you, this war will unite every terrorist group in the world against the west. I feel at this time that the war will be spread to just about every city in the free world. It's not a pretty picture to me, and I hope it doesn't happen. However, I am afraid that the writing is on the wall.

Thus, as you say Citizen Smith the world's economy will probably be destroyed. I only hope the Chinese don't destroy our economy any worse or we will be in trouble.
and if we do go to war with Iran. I see Russia using this time of opportunity to criple us even further.

: Originally posted by bugzy
The first objective will be to neutralize the Iranian Nuclear plant, much like what Israel did to Iraq's nuclear plant in Osiraq in 1981. I don't think this will be as difficult as most people believe.

This 'objective' will only be achieved under direct orders from the US, as any attack on the Iranian nuclear program will be deemed to be sanctioned by the US unless proven otherwise...as for the difficulty, the lessons from the Osiraq Incident have been well learnt and Iran has dispersed it's nuclear program to a variety of hardened underground sites...far more difficult to neutralise than a reactor-complex sitting out in the open

: Second, The US will want a regime change in Iran. This objective IMO will be difficult to achieve but will not take as long as people believe as well.

I believe that this avenue of attack is already underway with the US UN security council team already making noises to impose the harshest sanctions on the Iranian economy, and thereby cause civil unrest when luxury goods can no longer be obtained. Not much use when their largest oil-trading partner happens to be the Chinese who hold the largest leverage over the US economy in terms of currency. A war-footing on an inflationary stagnating economy isn't a smart idea when your biggest economic bank-roller happens to like trading with your 'enemy' for the resources you so desire

: The third and most costly objective is that both the US and Israel will want to totally destroy Hezbollah once and for all. I don't think this is an achievable objective

The destruction of Hezbollah will never happen, just as the destruction of A.Q. will never happen, for one simple reason, if you kill the boogeyman, who are you going to be afraid of? who will you need to fight to keep the war and the false economy rolling?

Originally posted by BugZy
The Usa will destroy Iran's Army in a matter of hours

Is that why Iran has FIVE times more Mortar and Anti Tank missile systems than the USA? I do not know how much of America's military can logistically be sent, but there is more than enough european-built Iranian systems to wipe any invasion ground force out.

link

[edit on 21/2/07 by SteveR]

Originally posted by SteveR

Is that why Iran has FIVE times more Mortar and Anti Tank missile systems than the USA?

Wanna know the BEST anti tank weapon system? An M1A2 TANK (well, next to a helo.) According to your source, the US has almost 30,000 armor units. Iran has 2300. I think that trumps your FIVE times.

In fact, if you perform the sid-by-side comparison on the site you listed, you will see that military vs. military the US would slap Iran silly. Insurgancy, of course, is another matter, however that is not what you were talking about.

I do not know how much of America's military can logistically be sent

All of it. And quickly, too.

but there is more than enough european-built Iranian systems to wipe any invasion ground force out.

thanks, I needed that.


Edit to add: just noticed (again on your source site) that in overall rankings the US is number 1 (because we are consumer whores even with military spending) and Iran is number 16! What a difference!







[edit on 22-2-2007 by cavscout]

Originally posted by BugZy

lol....The Usa will destroy Iran's Army in a matter of hours, and they will not be alone. Israel will probably lead the assault if it comes to War.

This is true. And all those threads and post about U.S. invading Iran is not correct. If the U.S. attack Iran it would be an attack only, not an invasion, it would be air to ground attack. In 2 to 3 weeks all the Iran military will be destroyed and all Iran soldiers will run for cover and hide, all the nuclear facilities will be bombed. The only thing the U.S. need from Iran is that they stop building a W.M.D. Maybe the U.S. will only destroy the radar and defense and let Israel do the bombing of the nuclear facilities. Anyway you look at it, the air rules and the U.S. rules the air, Iran have no chance.

Difference between Iraq and Iran.

Iraq had W.M.D. and used them.

Iran don't have any W.M.D. but is building one.

The U.S. invaded Iraq because the wmd they had where the ones that U.S. sold them.

Iran will be like Iraq in the 80's building a reactor and Israel bombing it. U.S. will bomb Iran and that will be it.

China and Russia will do anything. In fact, Russia would love that the U.S. destroy all of Iran military. Iran will have to buy everything brand new from Russia. And Iran will have to sell a lot a of oil to China to get the money to pay Russia.

Originally posted by cavscout

Originally posted by SteveR
I do not know how much of America's military can logistically be sent

All of it. And quickly, too.

Post source.

Well according to this article the US may have some disastrous problems ahead. I must ad that I know nothing about American hard wear/soft wear so I don't even know if this article is true.

Faulty Chips Could Cripple U.S. Attack On Iran
by William Thomas | Feb 18th 2007 | www.willthomas.net

www.willthomas.net...

Have “designed-to-fail” microchips set up the United States naval, air and ground units in the Persian Gulf for a disastrous defeat in Bush’s looming showdown with Iran? Has a Wal-Mart mentality, and corporate sleight-of-hand fatally undermined the U.S. war machine with microscopic flaws?

Snip

PLAYING POKER WITH CHINA’S CHIPS

It is widely documented that since the secession of America’s semiconductor supremacy to Asia, most computer chips supplied for civilian and military use in the United States by corporate giants like AMD, Microsoft, Intel and Motorola are now imported. As Hank was reminded by his visitors, “It’s all outsourced”—by U.S. manufacturers to suppliers in Japan, Taiwan and China.

~~
A STRATEGIC THREAT

As microcircuitry architecture continues to shrink, becoming “orders of magnitude denser,” this expert warned, “it becomes ever easier to hide lines that serve as Trojan Horse circuit designs, radio-frequency receivers and other ‘backdoors’ to circumvent encryption, muddle signals, induce data failure”— leaving supposedly “hardened” circuits vulnerable to EMP.
~~
“Are Chinese semiconductor firms capable of such chicanery?” Tkacik asked the U.S. government panel. “There are already several hundred semiconductor design labs in China—sponsored and paid-for by foreign firms including America’s top microchip corporations.”
[US China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing March 17/06]

~~
BLOWBACK

Right now, no one serving onboard a U.S. warship, manning a tank, or flying a fighter in the Persian Gulf can know for certain where the microswitches conveying electrical impulses to their communications, surveillance and fire-control systems originate. Or whether they will turn into powder in an EMP.

In order to harden military electronics against an electromagnetic pulse from a nuclear detonation or directed energy weapon, chips and circuit boards assembled to United States military specifications are not encased in a protective shell. Instead, they are etched with thicker wiring that Hank described as “the equivalent of a 30-amp fuse as thick as your thumb.”

This thicker circuitry, “reduces reaction time to an electromagnetic pulse by shutting off the circuit faster.”

Instead of adhering to “milspecs”, my source was informed and has since confirmed that Chinese chips inadvertently used in many U.S. military applications have been booby-trapped with EMP-sensitive circuitry equivalent of a civilian-size “3-amp fuse, the size of a wire in a light bulb.”

~~
IMPOSSIBLE TO FIX

Any detonation of Bush’s beloved “low yield” bunker-buster, an Iranian nuclear power plant, or shipboard reactor “could deactivate the U.S. Navy,” as Hank put it—along with all other command, control, communications and weapons circuits quietly humming in some forgotten but vital piece of equipment aloft, afloat or alongshore in the Persian Gulf.

To rig the Trojan chips, “pick a frequency that isn’t in nature above 23,000 hertz or below 2 hertz… at power levels only you can produce,” Hank invited. Jackie the sailor would not be able to misdial her sonar and shut down the entire fleet because “the pressure and wattage, as well as the frequency equivalent to an EMP” would be needed to do melt all those microchips. And that “could only come from a nuclear blast,” Hank added.

Or a pulse weapon. Hank was also informed that if attacked, Chinese technicians in Iran could make every vulnerable circuit within range “melt when hit by a microwave” tuned to their vulnerable frequency.

If that happens, this military tech added, “You would immobilize the entirety of any response we would have. No radars. No engines to mobilize troops; to supply electricity. We’d be on foot. That’s it. Oops!”

And no this was not junior Bush's fault

Even more troubling, documents declassified in 2003 show that after the Democratic Party received illegal cash campaign contributions from the Red Army, then-President Bill Clinton signed a November 1996 waiver authorizing the transfer to China of specialized chips needed to wage nuclear war. The high-tech “Chinagate” transfers not only allowed China “to more accurately target American cities with atomic weapons using advanced U.S technology,” as Charles Smith disclosed, but also allowed China to later sell advanced chips back to the U.S. military—rigged with a fatal flaw. [www.newsmax.com Feb 15/07]

Originally posted by Valorian

The world economy comes to a shuddering halt because finally oil has reached a price that cannot be handled. America moves into a sharp recession, followed by China and the rest of the world. The price of gold hits 1 000 US Dollars an ounce, whilst the oil price continues to oscillate around 150 US Dollars until the Iranian issue is settled one way or another. Stock markets together with commodity prices other than oil and gold plunge.

If you give decent odds to this scenario, it’s better to be in gold, bonds and cash and not in the stock market.
end:

Please remember this is not my quote but bears some fruit in current political environment

Hello Valorian

You may have noticed the under $24 US pop in gold yesterday thanks to strong physical demand, and a "religious experience" for the commercial shorts as they were forced to unwind a bit. I imagine Iran thumbing their nose at another UN deadline didn't hurt any...big surprise huh? I believe your $1000 Gold price is do-able this year. Personally, I'm long Gold & Silver...will continue to buy the dips....just hoping the volatility going forward doesn't have me wishing I'd stuck cholla spines in my eyes instead. lol!

China's signaling diversification of a percentage of it's foreign exchange reserves into non-US assets, including resources for strategic stockpiling ie. crude oil & minerals...a shield against potential supply disruptions..Hmmm! I believe this ultimately means a move towards a more flexible float and a weaker dollar. China has also been whispered to be 'stealth buyers' of Gold for some months now.

The pentagon leaks to the press that they can achieve the desired effect in Iran using conventional 250lb bunker busters (wink), at the same time Gates assures us we're not going in

We're entering a new cold war, nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is inevitable, global terrorism threatens, war and death in the ME rages on...and on top of all this...(the most watched story in America)...Brittany had to go and shave her head!

Maybe this really is TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it lol!).

Peace &
Good Fortune
OBE1

"The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."-- Animal Farm

If the US attacks Iran with airstrikes it will be a mistake. Iran has been purchasing ground to air missile systems from russia and other countries for defence purposes. Apart from that do we honestly think they have learned nothing from Iraq, they will attack UK/ US forces in Iraq with the aid of the majority Shias from iraq. Possibly attack US interests within the region and then there is the WMD question. Did Iraq get them into Syria/ Iran, has Iran developed anything and possibly purchased some.

Iran has a large fanatical standing army with modern equipment (ok russian and chinese based with some european tech too) they have a spy satellite and access possibly to russian/ chinese data (they are business partners) Iraq had very little modern technology compared too Iraq which had been under years of restrictions before the attack which saw saddam ousted.

So please do not say it will be a walk in the park, the real enemies of the west are sitting back on their chairs laughing their asses off as we are weakening our defences and spending our reserves at an alarming rate. While they reap the benefits.

Originally posted by BugZy
I'll take that bet Smith!

lol....The Usa will destroy Iran's Army in a matter of hours, and they will not be alone. Israel will probably lead the assault if it comes to War.

We are still very formidible, regardless of being spread thin in the middle East and Afghanjstan. Trust me, Iran will be overwhelmed very quickly.

It's Russia and China that worries me.

...not so hasty my friend, have you forgotten that if USA attacks Iran with a military force then you may find Syria launching a nuke into Israel, then you Iraq, Afganistan, Iran and Syria surrounding the US forces.

Russia and China will NOT do a thing IMO as they have addopted a wait-and-see stance to all this. China will side with Russia and Japan and probably be worrying about N.Korea.