The possible Iran vs. America scenario

Originally posted by OBE1

Originally posted by Valorian

The world economy comes to a shuddering halt because finally oil has reached a price that cannot be handled. America moves into a sharp recession, followed by China and the rest of the world. The price of gold hits 1 000 US Dollars an ounce, whilst the oil price continues to oscillate around 150 US Dollars until the Iranian issue is settled one way or another. Stock markets together with commodity prices other than oil and gold plunge.

If you give decent odds to this scenario, it’s better to be in gold, bonds and cash and not in the stock market.
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Hey OBE1

Yes I saw that, China is actually buying as much Gold and Silver reserves as it can. they are actually setting up dummy corps that allow anybody to borrow a capital amount to purchase Gold on their behalf, they will wire you the cash within 24 hours to go out and get them Gold....interesting

Hello Valorian

You may have noticed the under $24 US pop in gold yesterday thanks to strong physical demand, and a "religious experience" for the commercial shorts as they were forced to unwind a bit.

I imagine Iran thumbing their nose at another UN deadline didn't hurt any...big surprise huh? I believe your $1000 Gold price is do-able this year. Personally, I'm long Gold & Silver...will continue to buy the dips....just hoping the volatility going forward doesn't have me wishing I'd stuck cholla spines in my eyes instead. lol!

China's signaling diversification of a percentage of it's foreign exchange reserves into non-US assets, including resources for strategic stockpiling ie. crude oil & minerals...a shield against potential supply disruptions..Hmmm! I believe this ultimately means a move towards a more flexible float and a weaker dollar. China has also been whispered to be 'stealth buyers' of Gold for some months now.

The pentagon leaks to the press that they can achieve the desired effect in Iran using conventional 250lb bunker busters (wink), at the same time Gates assures us we're not going in

We're entering a new cold war, nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is inevitable, global terrorism threatens, war and death in the ME rages on...and on top of all this...(the most watched story in America)...Brittany had to go and shave her head!

Maybe this really is TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it lol!).

Peace &
Good Fortune
OBE1

"The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."-- Animal Farm

[edit on 22-2-2007 by Valorian]

Originally posted by ferretman2
The US will only go it alone if the UN pussies out again.

...

Now it is time to see whether the UN is a waste as previously thought.

...
[edit on 21-2-2007 by ferretman2]

Essentially, the UN is formed in order to prevent un-necessary warfare from being waged by the countries within the UN. They are not designed to start wars.

With that being said, with the United States being one of the largest contributors to the UN, essentially it is the United States who have rendered the UN useless by diobeying the very rules that they agreed to when the UN was founded.

You only have the United States government to blame for that one.

The rules are set, the United States has disobeyed them. What would you have them do about it? Wage war with the US?
You should count yourself lucky that the UN is a peace loving group of 'pussies'. Otherwise, the UN would be imposing sanctions on the United States, and preparing to have Canada, Europe, and Britain enforce those sanctions on the US, no doubt Russia would love to help. Do you really think it best if the UN were hard hitting? Then you really would have an all out war with the rest of the world.


Aside from this, the whole "we are righteous" attitude from the United States has to stop. The rest of the world is not a playground for destruction, the only reason the US can throw it's weight around over there is due to the relatively small size of each nation.Should they decide that they have a common enemy (the united states) and dissolve their borders, the US would have quite the opponent to deal with.


The coming war with Iran (and yes, I do believe it will happen), is a huge mistake. I too am starting to believe that the US administration pays no attention what-so-ever to their intelligence agencies. Iran is not Iraq, think of Iraq, make the country ALOT larger, give it one hell of a military, and then add to the fact that the population chose their government. They will be alot more loyal to that government than the Iraqi's ever were to Saddam.

The first battle with the Iranian military will be a devestating one for both sides. Then the US will have to deal with insurgencies within the populace... a much larger populace, spread out over alot larger of an area.

Then take into account that Iran is such close partners with Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon... If the US attacks Iran, the Saudi's and Lebaneese will take it as a sign that eventually, the US will do the same to them. No doubt Saudi Arabia and Lebanon will be entering Iran to help kill as many US Soldiers as possible.

Then take into account just how horribly thin the US military is already spread out over the globe. You would need to withdraw ALOT of troops and equipment from other regions to back a war with Iran (Saudi-Arabia and Lebanon included). Even if you can muster up the numbers, your soldiers are already low on morale from their fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq... which are not going as "swimmingly" as that nut-job Anne Coulter seems to blindly believe.

Those images you see of Iraq are from the Green Zone in Iraq... a rather small plot of land, in which reporters dare not go outside of. Life outside of the Green Zone is suicidal at best, if you call that stable, and free, well, then I want no part of whatever freedom the US thinks I should have.

My point is war with Iran is a mistake. It's going to be VERY ugly, and no doubt public support will waver upon seeing just how many US soldiers are being slaughtered. The war with Iran will happen, and it will be felt very strongly back home.

"Yes I saw that, China is actually buying as much Gold and Silver reserves as it can. they are actually setting up dummy corps that allow anybody to borrow a capital amount to purchase Gold on their behalf, they will wire you the cash within 24 hours to go out and get them Gold....interesting"--Valorian


Hello Valorian

Can I get a phone number ?...lol!

But seriously, if you have a link to a piece someone has done on this topic, I'd really be interested. If not, no sweat...Thanks.


Regarding the 'diversification' that I mentioned in my previous post...China began selling Yuan denominated bonds for the first time towards the end of 06. The revenue from these sales is being used to buy-out their foreign reserve pool of US Dollars...these funds are then being invested in non-US assets. Much of it is currently being spent in other developing areas like Africa, on the improvement of infrastructure such as roads, rail systems, and power stations...in exchange for access to raw materials. A growing middle class in China means more pots, pans, and refrigerators ie...more nickel, tin etc.

The consequences of a reduction in the purchase US treasury paper = a slow down in the US economy. The inverted yield curve that currently exists in the US bond market, has successfully predicted nine out of the last nine economic rollovers or recessions. An escalating price of Gold equates to a vote of no confidence in the US Dollar, and all US Dollar denominated assets including bonds. That China would currently be accumulating Gold comes as no surprise.

China holds the purse strings. How did the US manage to find itself economically dependent, and subservient...to a developing, third world, communist country?

Interesting question.

In regard to our current mess in the ME, including the possible conflict with Iran, I would expect Russia and China to assume a role similar to that of the US during Russia's failed incursion in Afghanistan...military aid from a distance, coupled with economic warfare.

Peace &
Good Fortune
OBE1

Edit: Punctuation










[edit on 23-2-2007 by OBE1]