posted on Jan, 14 2006 @ 12:45 AM
That scoresandodds.com gambling computer has been so damn accurate, I'm going with what it says. It says:
1. Carolina will beat the Bears by NINE, the most amazing pick I've seen by far, so I'll simply pick Carolina to win.
2. Denver will win by FIVE (the spread is three), so I'll go against my heart and pick Denver to win.
3. Seattle will win by FOUR (the spread is 9.5), so I'll pick Seattle to win a much closer, more exciting game than people expect; and
4. Pitt and Indi is rated a "Pick Em" (!), which is of course ludicrous, but I'm certain that's a product of the relaxed way Indi played
the last two games, and the scores of their last three games. Do I think the Colts will be mindf'ed and blow their season because of young Dungy's
Now, the death of one's own child is, according to every psychologist I've asked about it, by far the worst thing a person can endure.
The second-worst depends on the person: death of your mom, your dad, your spouse, a sibling, etc. But the death of one's biological child is the #1
worst, by far. And you don't need to ask a shrink; ask parents and they'll all agree. Ask someone who's actually been through it, and 25 minutes
later, after he/she stops crying, he/she will either agree vehemently or comment on your insensitivity.
So, it's unreasonable to expect TONY DUNGY to be his normal self. HOWEVER, I am fairly certain one of the other coaches has been doing most of the
coaching--or at least, most of the drill-sergeant type of coaching. If not, the G.M. should be called on the mat.
And the players--who are surely sad for Coach Dungy, but who did NOT lose their biological offspring--have certainly been getting coached, worked out,
screamed at, etc., just as hard as ever. They are pros, they get paid a ton, and while they feel for Dungy, it's not like each of them lost they're a
brother, mom or wife, much less a child.
I just don't see them giving any less than 100% for this game, nor do I see them being unfocused. In fact, the whoever's done the hard-nosed part of
the coaching all week will probably have them on a crusade to "win for Coach and his son."
The only real disaster would be if they left Dungy, an easy-going and soft-spoken man by nature, to do all of his coaching tasks in his current state
of overwhelming grief. Even Ditka or Rockne or Woody Hayes would be distracted and overwhelmed by grief under these circumstances, and there n.f.w.
Dungy isn't. The owner and G.M. surely have to realize this, and must have someone else riding the players @sses and chewing on them when they need
If not, the G.M. and the owner deserve to lose.
And remember, though we all naturally focus on that team's Foutsian/Coryellesque offense, THIS year's Colts team has a pretty damn good defense. For
Pitt to win, they must slow down the Indi offensive display AND move their none-too-impressive offense thru Indi's defense several times.
I may be wrong. After all, I'm the one who asked earlier this season how the experts had said the Colts defense could be lit up. But I just can't
see Pitt beating this team, except with a lot of help from turnover points and/or special team points. I learned, at a very high cost, not to lay big
points in the NFL unless you're against a team that has pretty much quit (e.g., Arizona every year, by mid-October).
But if I were not retired from the insanely stressful activity of football betting, and if I HAD to bet this game, I would lay all those points. I
would also lay the points with Denver, probably for serious money if I got the game at 3. But I would take the points with Washington, and I'd take
them big if it got to 10. I also would take them in a big way--clenching my jaw the whole time--with Carolina, in a game where I believe the wrong
team is favored.
But that's just me. It's easy to pop off when I've decided to stay in retirement--even though all my major picks have turned out to be winners so far
THIS year. (Would that it had always been such.) Y'all can laugh at me tomorrow night, when I give you more picks to laugh at for Sunday.