The CBS series Jericho and survival..., page 1/

Small town survival is a subject unto itself. When you look at it in terms of logistics and geography, this is no small problem for any community to face in the aftermath of a major disaster. Large-scale nuclear attack would bring with it a whole set of problems thatwould be too big for most small populations to easily deal with.

Scarcity of resource is a big deal. When the hammer comes down, you've got hat you've got, and that's all. This civilized state of affairs won't last for more than 24 hours before looting and robbery become common. Mothers will gladly steal to get food for their babies, and fatherws will kill to get food and meds for their wives and children.

The sudden and immediate breakdown of commerce will catch more than 90% of the population by surprise. Stop and think about how much ready cash YOU have laying around, and then consider what that amount might buy in a crisis situation where "inflation" has suddenly kicked in. Whatever you might be able to afford...may be out of reach due to riots at supermarkets or streets jammed with dead cars and angry drivers.

Populations in distress tend to become mobile. Anyone who can drive will leave the major population centers as quickly as they can. Everybody else who fears remaining in an urban war zone will walk. The average person covers 5-7 miles per day on a paved road. Even if they are forced overland or along dirt roads, these displaced persons will have an incentive (weather) to be swift. Factor in the herd mentality of some individuals who feel safer when imitating others...and you've got lots of people on the move who are in no mood to be civil.

Small towns, like the made-up locale of Jericho, have a low population density. Trouble is, they are sprawled out over a large area. It wouldn't be out of line to suggest that that these 300-500 people live on 300-500 squiare miles of land. That'd be one person (regardless of age or gender) for every square mile...if they decided to patrol all of it.

As generous as they might like to be, these small towns don't have the cpacity to support very many more people. By the end of their first winter, most little communities will be depleted from desease and starvation. Those who can will...move on. Hundreds of Jerichos would simply cease to be after the first winter. If the influx of refugees numbers greater than the residents of a town...they might be out of business faster than anyone thought possible.

The truth i that small communities will hve to act with their own best interests in mind. That may very well mean pulling their small population in to a restricted perimeter. To fend off the waves of refugees that might assail them, it would not be unreasonable for such folks to turn their down-town or mainstreet areas in to a fort. This would allow them to defend rationed food and fuel stocks that would otherwise be gobbled up peole passing through who were too cranky to be reasoned with.

As we see in the fictional Jericho, they've only got one gas station. Even if a resourceful and creative township could get the fuel out of th tanks, it won't last long. Most rural gas stations don't stock more than 5,000-10,000 gallons of refined gasoline at any given time. They might have upwards of 20,000 gallons of home heating oil, but that won't last long either. Not when you consider that that 100 homes will slurp up an average of 300 gallons each in one normal winter. Realizing that some of that oil will be used for non-heating purposes, you can see how supplies would shrink...unless they were tightly rationed.

Assuming that a small town did want to agressively patrol its environs--even if we assume that gas for trucks and hay for horses is not a factor--manpower becomes an unbeateable issue. No struggling town could spare the able-bodied men and women it would take to keep their streets safe. Food and ammunition costs alone would be prohibitive.

It may not be out of line to suggest that 10% of the able-bodied persons in Jericho are part of the militia. As good as that may sound, it's worth noting that he who patrols does not work in the fields. When faced with refugees who will themselves be armed, militias will always fight out-manned and out-gunned. Kill ratios of 10:1 may still not be enough to scare off the wandering masses who yearn to be fed and kept warm.

In those cases where a community shrinks its perimeter and fortifies its defenses, there could be hope. Wandering moms and dads and mercenaries alike will think twice before tangling with a town that looks back at them from behind walls, barricades, or stacks of crushed cars. Surrounding farm land will still be at the mercy of looters, but carefully gathered stockpiles will remain in the hands of the people who may have earned them.

The mercenary theat is just as real as any posed by a refugee column. Members of a rod and gun club could band togther to form a raiding party. Survivalist enclaves might carry out pre-planned "shopping expeditions." SWAT teams, National Guard units, and even forward-thinking neighborhood watch committees would all be thinking about who they can get stuff from...and how they might do it.

All of this makes the situation we see in Jericho that much more un-likely. If nothing else, the program should be watched so that you will know what NOT to do in a similar circumstance. If you stop to think about it, any simple precautions you yourself could take would give you such a leg up on those fictional survivors that it's almost silly.

In any crisis, the things you have provide more than options. They provide mental stability. A pocket knife, a pack of gum, or even a book of matches may not seem like much to you now...but...under the wrong conditions, you'd gladly take them from somebody else who had them. Even if you do choose to share, you'll still need to actually have some to pass around. Unless you take active steps to preserve and maintain what you've got...you won't be able to help yourself, or anyone else.

Neither will the folks in Jericho.