Recent events have caused many of us to dust off our memories of the Cold War. Back in the day, we lived in fear of long-range bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Diplomats from East and West faced off against each other on the floor of the United Nations on a regular basis. Most of the geographic hotspots that could’ve sparked a war were found in smaller countries that were our allies, or in close relationships with our adversaries.

As the Soviet Union fell in 1989, our leaders declared victory. Politicians on both sides of the aisle requested a down-sizing of the military, and debates raged over how to spend “the peace dividend.” Our nuclear nightmares vanished almost overnight as we settled in for what looked like many decades of relative peace. Journalists and historians look back on those heady days now, and wonder if we didn’t let our guard down.

As an author, historian, and political scientist, I have to say that we did become complacent. We did NOT take the threat of Middle Eastern terrorism seriously when it emerged in 1997, as demonstrated by the first attack on the World Trade Center. In our minds, the ‘threat’ seemed minor when compared to the huge Communist war machine that had been stared down and embarrassed in to defeat by dialogue and economics. We really did think we had put this beast to bed, once and for all.

July 4 of 2006, on the occasion of our national Independence Day, our cozy myopic world view was “corrected” when a series of missile test-flights originating from North Korea gave us a badly needed wakeup call. These tests included the failed launch of a prototype ICBM. Western media sources are loath to admit it, and our leaders don’t want to say the words that’ll make it “real.” It should be clear to anyone with a newspaper that the Cold War is back.

July 6 of 2006 saw the Washington Post report that Taiwan will soon test-fire their own version of a cruise missile. This weapon has the range and accuracy to strike targets up to 350 miles inside of mainland China. Given that North Korea is a known client state under Chinese influence, it seems clear that a new round of proxy fighting is under way.
This may be a new Cold War, or it may be the continuation of what started after 1945. Either way, we are now faced with a new period of extreme volatility that pits old rivals against each other. The events of the past may prove invaluable as we struggle to come up with new solutions for old problems. Global reach is no longer the privilege of a superpower. Nuclear power and atomic weapons are no longer the perks of higher civilization. Today’s proxy threats can do to us as we would do to them.

Cold War in the 21st Century will still be about economic and ideological supremacy. The complications will be political. The solutions will be political. We did this once before, and we outlasted the movements and politicians who threatened us. I don’t ask for the period of 1945-1989 to be remembered with nostalgia. We should never wish for the return of those particular “good old days.” I do ask that we remember and use what we learned from those dark times.

Today’s confrontational politics will turn on the threats and capabilities of modern missile technology. Warheads will once against be used to back up ideology. Embargoes and sanctions of all sorts will be the preferred chips for today’s high-stakes poker game. In the end, national preservation may still come down to economic endurance. If that’s true, we are poised for victory as long as we remain patient. If not, we should still be well positioned, thanks to our accumulated wisdom.

With all of this in mind, I remain hopeful that we can still avoid becoming the very thing we will soon be called upon to fight. If our leaders are tempted by the powers the have now, what will become of us when they are tempted to take on even greater powers during the worst of the coming decade(s).

Now, more than ever before, I see a real need for the kind of citizenship that I've written about. Now, more than ever, we are vulnerable to the kinds of unintended conspiracy that I've written about. We can undertake the challenges of the next cold war, and we can be the standard-bearers for all things good, or, we can become the world's next great nightmare.

I think we are about to see the start of a deliberate economic down-turn. In keeping with the arguments I've already framed, I now think that the people in high places are gearing up for a new round of influence consolidation. Because this is a continuation of the trend I've previously described, I won't bother re-hashing it.

As we approach the 2006 Congressional races, it seems clear that the Republicans are banking on their loss of seats in both the House and the Senate. On their watch, the prime lending rate which has been responsible for the housing boom on their watch has been raised more than a dozen times. The expected result has been a dramatic slow-down in the sales of new and pre-existing homes. While this rise in interest rates has been bad for the average guy, it's been very good for the big money investors who think in millions or billions.

This tactic seems rather obvious. Out-going Republicans are protecting their portfolios. This, by itself would be enough to slow the economy, but it wouldn't be enough to shock it in to the kind of paralysis that would allow today's career politicians to centralize more power. The staggering blow appears to be coming in the form of a minimum wage increase, which the GOP dominated House and Senate will pass before the November elections.

The bill that came out of the House will raise the minimum wage from $5.15 to $7.25 over the space of three years. It's not likely that anyone will question the goodness of this in an election year. My research indicates that such a dramatic rise in the hourly wage would force a dramatic re-alignment of prices in all sectors of the economy that would paralyze consumer spending for atleast two years.

The U.S. economy is being set up to take a double shock in the 4th quarter of 2006 that will set the stage or economic stagnation in 2007. I believe this is a deliberate attempt to force a down- turn in the economy by latest second quarter of 2008. The political maneuvers that will result can certainly end up putting more power in to the hands of our career bureaucrats and elected leaders.

Starting in the first quarter of 2008, we should expect to see tax increases, expansion of Federal judiciary power, and slight increases in Executive authority. Overseas threats and international tensions will be cited as the reasons for many of these requests for addition authority. Many of the new laws that will pass during this period shall be framed in the context of national security.

To that extent, all of these events will take place as predicted in my first book. There seems to be no reason to suspect that the trend I've outlined will slow or stop any time soon. It's beginning to look like my predictions are rather modest. that may because I'm not looking at this problem through a partisan lens. This trend is only possible because persons on both sides of the aisle have chosen to participate.

Look for the Christmas buying season of 2006 to be disappointing to merchants. Foreclosure of defaulted home loans will make the news starting in late November. All economic forecasters who matter will begin issuing predictions of gloom and doom. Pay close attention to the promises made by party leaders during the holiday break. When the House and Senate re-convene, you'll begin to see if I'm right or wrong.

Not sure if this applies to this thread but I'm very curious to know from Justin Oldham or another poster if you agree that the military are taking over the police forces of cities. For instance, I know for sure that in San Diego, CA, many of the officers are "ex"-military. Of course this would not be surprising considering that San Diego is a "military town" with bases of Marines and many Navy ships coming and going as well as a Naval base in the middle of the city.

But, I believe it is more than just the convenience of the thing, and that it is much more widespread across America than that, and also that it is intentional, that is with the intention of having military who are still under military command acting as civilian police, since it would then be far more possible to turn the police on the civilians than it would be if the force was made of "native sons" of the area. In other words, I don't believe all the "ex" military are really so "ex".

If you'd care to respond?

Hi Justin,

Finished the book. Interesting read, thanks.

I'm not going to go into why I've had a lot of interaction with members of law enforcement except to say I am not one of them. In my work I've become close enough to many that I've been made privy to some things others may not be aware of.

When Bush Sr. was in office I had a lunch meeting with a friend who was at the time in a state police force. He had just come from a meeting discussing a presidential order that could affect them. He said it gave the office of the President the power to take control of any state police force at any time. I have never read about this elsewhere and have not figured out how to get the details about presidential orders but this man is credible.

Another officer (Sheriff's Dept.) was not in when I called and the dispatcher told me that he was on vacation. When he came back I asked how the vacation was and he said what vacation. I explained and he said that's what the Sheriff told them to tell people. This man refuses to lie and told me the truth. He had been to a school in Florida training in urban combat with the special forces. At the time they were still denying reports this training was going on but after talking to him I assure you it was and probably still is happening.

After this I had another lunch meeting with the first officer I mentioned and when I arrived he looked pale. Not sick pale but scared pale. He told me they had been receiving training from the Fed's in urban combat and they were told that they may someday have to face down people that they know in their own communities during civilian uprisings. He said he had asked them what would happen if he refused to turn his gun against his friends and neighbors and they told him nothing. They told him he would be fired and would never be able to work in law enforcement again. He said Blaine, what do I do I have no other way to support myself and I'm to old to start over. He was so scared he was nearly in tears. He is also a former Marine and has special clearance so he can enter a secret base in his patrol area. He started telling me and his friends about everything he learned as his way of fighting back. I can't post most of it here and I'd take a bullet to protect him. He is a good man and he has chosen to fight this from within by making sure people he trusts know about what he knows. If everyone knew what I learned from him and others there would be rioting in the streets. They would not have been training them if these things were not expected to happen soon.

I'm not going to say any more right now, but everyone would be wise to know a place to escape the cities and be prepared to survive on their own when it starts. These people are not being trained in urban combat for the hell of it.

Originally posted by Blaine91555
Hi Justin,

Finished the book. Interesting read, thanks.

I'm not going to go into why I've had a lot of interaction with members of law enforcement except to say I am not one of them. In my work I've become close enough to many that I've been made privy to some things others may not be aware of.

When Bush Sr. was in office I had a lunch meeting with a friend who was at the time in a state police force. He had just come from a meeting discussing a presidential order that could affect them. He said it gave the office of the President the power to take control of any state police force at any time. I have never read about this elsewhere and have not figured out how to get the details about presidential orders but this man is credible.

Another officer (Sheriff's Dept.) was not in when I called and the dispatcher told me that he was on vacation. When he came back I asked how the vacation was and he said what vacation. I explained and he said that's what the Sheriff told them to tell people. This man refuses to lie and told me the truth. He had been to a school in Florida training in urban combat with the special forces. At the time they were still denying reports this training was going on but after talking to him I assure you it was and probably still is happening.

After this I had another lunch meeting with the first officer I mentioned and when I arrived he looked pale. Not sick pale but scared pale. He told me they had been receiving training from the Fed's in urban combat and they were told that they may someday have to face down people that they know in their own communities during civilian uprisings. He said he had asked them what would happen if he refused to turn his gun against his friends and neighbors and they told him nothing. They told him he would be fired and would never be able to work in law enforcement again. He said Blaine, what do I do I have no other way to support myself and I'm to old to start over. He was so scared he was nearly in tears. He is also a former Marine and has special clearance so he can enter a secret base in his patrol area. He started telling me and his friends about everything he learned as his way of fighting back. I can't post most of it here and I'd take a bullet to protect him. He is a good man and he has chosen to fight this from within by making sure people he trusts know about what he knows. If everyone knew what I learned from him and others there would be rioting in the streets. They would not have been training them if these things were not expected to happen soon.

I'm not going to say any more right now, but everyone would be wise to know a place to escape the cities and be prepared to survive on their own when it starts. These people are not being trained in urban combat for the hell of it.

Come on! don't leave me hanging! Tell me more! I knew something was going down, all the refurbishing of cold war military bases up here in Canada. All our cops are where body armour and got machine guns for some reason. Suddenly the RCMP have been granted jurisdiction in cities with private police forces. American state troopers & swat up here training our guys. Crap, something big is going down.

Today is September 1st. On this date in 1939, German forces crossed in to Poland and World War Two was begun. Between September 1939 and August 1945, more than thirty-three million people died in various theatres of war. More than one hundred million persons were wounded. Nine percent of the world's population was lost.

On this date, I feel compelled to write about this to underscore my reason for making my...case...I think it's important to talk about the thing's I've grought up for the sake of future generations, any of which may be called on to fight a war that nobody wanted.

I am no pacifist. Far from it. All I ask is that our leaders be stingy with the blood of our citizens as they plan for our future. Members of my family have shed blood at Antietem, Ardennes, Tarawa, and several numbered hills in Vietnam. More recently, some of my kin have walked the streets of Basrah, Baghdad, and some of the nicer buffets in Kuwait and Qatar.

As a historian, I see many paralells between the events of 1936-1938. As a political scientist, I can't help thinking there's a 'real war' in our future, and we'd better get used to the idea. I can think of no better reason to talk about the financial conspiracy theories that I an others like me spend so much of our time with.

The Military Commissions Act has been signed in to law. I’m sure it was done with the best of intentions. Even so, I can’t help thinking that we’ll regret it. This law may stay on the books for a decade or so. In the end, it will be scrapped after we’ve all had a chance to suffer from it’s unintended consequences.

I am an author of political fiction. I make my living by speculating on the good and the bad in our society. Anyone who bothers to Google my name will see that I’ve been a busy prognosticator for quite some time. I’m not a terrorist, and I don’t have a violent bone in my body. I do, however, have an opinion that often differs with that of the people in power. My opinions could easily be classified as sedition under the new law.

How long will I have to wait before the folks in long black trench coats come to get me? The legalized witch-hunts will getting under way pretty soon. I know they’ll have more important persons to persecute for the first few years than lowly opinion-holders such as myself. As time and hectic schedules permit, they’ll get to me when they can. It takes time to build those dossiers, and I’m sure that mine will be substantial.

We understand the need to take extraordinary measures to combat terrorism. We understand the need for vigilance, diligence, patience in these difficult times. I say that our leaders have told us to be afraid when they should be telling us to be brave. I say that our leaders have asked for unsupervised authorities that they know they shouldn’t have. It is my contention that these people are tempted by political gain when they should be motivated by civic duty and social virtue.

When we look back on the legislative history of this period, we’re going to be forced to swallow our pride and admit to our children that we brought this on ourselves. If we are fortunate, we may be granted the opportunity to atone for the sins of warrantless wiretapping, secretive police units, and all-powerful tribunals. If we grow old and die without successfully challenging these extremes, we’ll just have to hope that future generations believe the wild stories we left behind about life before the Patriot Act.

We should be on guard. We should be aware of what’s going on around us. When our leaders encourage fear and dependence, we should know instinctively that they don’t have our best interests in mind. In the span of just five years, we have turned our backs on two hundred centuries of tradition that made us a super-power. I’m not the only person who sees what’s coming, but I may be one of the last to study the trend and warn against it.

The Military Commissions Act, coupled with key provisions in the revised Patriot Act and recent court decisions that sanction wiretapping without warrants should tell us all we need to know. They’ll be clamping down on web sites like this one long before they take the time to pay me a visit. Unlimited power is just what it sounds like. Please keep that in mind as you turn to the next page.

The outcome of the elections on November 7th of 2006 underscores the point I've been trying to make. The defeat of the Conservative party is significant in ways that are not immediately obvious. It's already been established that both parties desire and seek as much power and authority as they can get. For their own reasons, each entity is driven by what it sees as the 'greater good.'

In the last six years, the party most commonly associated with Conservatism and anti-Federalist philosophies has undergone something of a radical transformation. It may now be fair to say that both mainstream political parties openly prefer big government. This openly displayed behavior demonstrates that neither party fears the registered voter. As previously postulated in earlier posts, I'll stand on my contention that it doesn't matter which party achieves total power. The social and political elites on both sides of the aisle will benefit from it. They may have some preferences as to which established body should rule, but today's career politicians only care to be in the ruling class...regardless of what banner it claims.

As the 110th Congress comes in to session, we should expect bold moves to be made by the dominant party. The current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will cease being military campaigns. They will quickly become political tools for the majority party. Even so, we should not expect to see more than token resistance from the minority party when it comes to the ending of those wars. Over the next two years, we should expect to see the Conservative party cut down in both size and stature. What looks like old-fashioned partisan bickering will, in fact, be just one more step forward for the people in power.

With anti-Federalist forces crushed and in disarray, we should expect to see a deliberate and premeditated acceleration of bureaucracy and overall government power. The extent to which the Republican party is reduced in both Houses of Congress won't matter. We may even see a few party defections. The overall economic crisis that worsens through 2007 will be used to justify socialized medicine and other policies which encourage the Federalist preference for big government. We'll be told that it's all being done for our own good.

Our leaders have seen that they benefit more from fear and chaos than they do from peace and stability . The present failures of economic and national security policy are blamed on partisan politics. The truth may be much simpler. The terrible truth of the thing may be that both parties have too much to gain from what appears to be grid-lock or incompetence. In the arena of national party politics, where the fate of the country hangs in the balance. it may be the case that what the voters see as humiliation is actually...manipulation.

My proposition remains in tact. Over the next eight years, we will see new growth in government. We will finally see what it means for one political party to really have uncontested dominion over our government. This will include a greater political-ization of the armed forces, and a much harsher degree of polarization among the voters. Candidates like Hillary Clinton may rise to power on an intense wave of popularity. That doesn't mean her motives will be pure, populist, or patriotic.

Question: How bad do you see things getting, economy wise?

Originally posted by lardo5150
Question: How bad do you see things getting, economy wise?

Like anyone else who follows this sort of thing, I'm developing my best guest guess as I go along.

2007 will be a year of slow growth. The "Bush economy" has been largely powered by the housing sector, which is even now cooling at a much faster than anticipated rate. A number of companies have already announced workforce reductions for the first quarter. Those numbers tally to atleast 200,000. Consumer confidence will drop by roughly ten percent as far as I can tell. Expect new housing starts to falter badly by the end of the second quarter.

More than a few people on these boards have expected a hike in the minimum wage in 2007. Historyically, the U.S. economy needs two years to equalize AFTER all Federally-mandated hourly wage increases are put in to effect. Talk on the hill right now says they'll phase in the new wage raises over three years. This'll mean that 2007-2010 will see increased consumer prices. In an effort to stem inflation, we should expect to see the Fed raise interest rates in the second and fourth quarters of 2008.

As the economy stalls, mostly due to a lack of cash at the consumer level, private enterprise will downsize. Look for the unemployment rate to top seven percent by mid 2009. As much as this looks like incompetence, I say there's a certain amount of premeditated maneuver to it. Big money remains in tact while little money dries up. The rich remain liquid while the middle class constricts (gets smaller) and the poor get poor-er.

The fact that politicians around the country will be calling for a government solution to these problems should tell you all that you need to know. Expect the Dems to push nationalized health care as just one solution to what they see as a social rather than an economic problem. The Patriot Act and all its legislative minions will remain in force to help the Fed manage a worsening situation as the voters get cranky and the nation's mood goes dark. Those of you who have read my book know what I think happens after that.