Run-Up to Iran War: Track the Indicators

Okay...I decided not to post this in the news section because, honestly, I'm too lazy at this point to go hunting around the web for the stories we've probably all read which discuss global events so I'll start with some of what I've noticed and hopefully will find time/energy to hunt down some sources. Here goes...

Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Newcomers:
It's clear that the world is in the process of climbing up Iran's backside about their efforts to develop nuclear technology. What is interesting is that no one cares about NK's efforts in this regard anymore. Obviously, the NPT bluster that the nuke powers about the globe pull out of their back pocket to shut down any nations seeking to enter the group without its tacit approval is only used in certain situations to gain political leverage. It is becoming increasingly clear that abiding by, or forcing other nations to abide by, the NPT is not the true goal of all nuclear nations who use the NPT as a cudgel to achieve political means. The US has made it clear that they intend to re-design/re-deploy updated warhead designs and it stands to reason that, supercomputers notwithstandin,g no one's going to bet their tactical future on warheads that have only been tested on silicon. That'll cause the US to disengage from the NPT (which bans the testing of nuclear devices) in order to test their stockpiles. Ultimately, none of the NPT signatories will be interested in being the "good guy" vs. the U.S. "bad guy" so the document will become more worthless than the paper on which it was drafted as each signatory drops from the agreement to re-design and re-deploy their new weapons like dominoes.

Iran and the Bomb:
Though it becomes quite evident that a nation with significant crude reserves has little need for nuclear energy save the tangential output of weapons-grade material from the enrichment process, it is also clear that as long as the Israelis have the Bomb, everyone in the neighborhood is going to want one. Iran's already got the carrot (crude) now they'd like a stick too (the Bomb). It makes sense as one sees the inordinate influence on geo-politics that the nuclear nations bring to the table. Wanting the Bomb and having the Bomb are two completely different things, however, and many analysts believe that Iran is not exactly a hop, skip and jump from becoming nuclear. Some have contended that such a capability is still a decade off for Iran even if the IAEA offered no resistance to such efforts.

The Cartoons:
Some sources have recently contended that the Danish Cartoon protests were manufactured by Saudi Arabia (an "ally" of the US, who apparently took a page from Dubya's book) in an effort to draw muslim attention away from the recent incident in Saudi Arabia during the hajj. In the same place as it has always happened, a stampede occurred and over 300 pilgrims were killed. The muslim world has been long frustrated with Saudi Arabia over its obvious lack of respect and regard for the hajj, evidenced by the nation's massive wealth and the lack of application of that wealth to the development of a safe and maintainable hajj route. So, Saudi Arabia keeps these three-month-old cartoons in their back pocket to use as a distraction when the inevitable loss of life occurrs during the hajj. They work closely with muslim leaders around the globe distributing Danish flags, false fliers demonstrating the cartoons (on the fliers exist a handful of cartoons more offensive than those published which never made it to the pages of Danish papers) and instructions for protesting/demonstrating. So, like dominoes the pilgrims die and shortly thereafter, the protests begin which galvanize the muslims against the Western World instead of allowing them to galvanize against the "enemy from within" which is Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia & the Bush Administration:
Strangely, though the magic 8-ball will tell us that all signs point to Saudi Arabia for setting up this tragic and unnecessary series of protests and attacks, just yesterday, the Bush Administration, via Condi Rice, contended that Iran and Syria were complicit in motivating the protestors to become violent. It makes one wonder whether Saudi Arabia got the ball rolling for the U.S. It has been clear that Europe does not maintain the bloodlust for Middle Eastern oil that the U.S. does and nothing helps to get an ally to see things your way like the creation of a common enemy. So, in order to get your European allies to see Iran and the muslims as the force to be checked in the world and give the green light to an Iranian attack, you scare the heck out of Europe by fomenting protest and revolt amongst the muslim population on that continent.

The Oil Bourse:
As some may be aware, there are major timing issues in play here which were also in play during the run-up to the Iraq invasion. For the most part, global crude is traded in U.S. dollars. Such a situation has a synergistic effect on both the value of crude and the stability of the U.S. dollar. It creates a need for a stable U.S. dollar due to the importance of being able to trade a commodity against a non-moving target. It also stabilizes the dollar because it leverages a relatively fixed asset (exportable crude) against a fluctuating one (a nation's currency). I may be overly simplistic in this explanation, but it's the basic jist of the interrelationship of a commodity and the currency under which that commodity is traded.

Now, Iraq and Saddam were in a similar position as Iran. The only stick they had to wield in geo-politics was their oil (and carrots make poor sticks). No nukes or WMD yet as we've discovered. (Again, this is why Iran wants the Bomb. It's a much more effective stick than oil as the planet is slowly becoming wise to the pitfalls of our over utilization of fossil fuels.) So Iraq pulled out the only stick they had. Saddam threatened to move trading of Iraqi oil from the dollar to the euro. Obviously, such a move would have a dual effect...it would strengthen the euro by tying it to a solid commodity and would weaken the dollar by stripping it of its link to Iraqi crude. Go figure, but our invasion was timed to keep such a move from dollar to euro oil trading from occuring in Iraq. Subsequently, the move never materialized.

Take a look at the timing of the Iran Oil Bourse, a new marketplace set to open on March 20th which will tie the Iranian oil reserves to the euro for the purposes of trading. Sound familiar? It is doubtful that the U.S. will allow that to happen.

False flag:
Now here comes the more wild element of my theory. Gauging from the world's current opinion of Iran and its threat to global security, there's just no chance in hell that we're going to get European sign off on an attack or invasion of Iran before March 20th. Unfortunately, the U.S. is not going to let the Oil Bourse fly so they must have an actionable offence to attribute to Iran to accelerate that timetable. That's where the false flag occurs.

Tieing it all together:
Okay, so now we've got the Saudis putting the muslim world up to protesting a series of cartoons in order to scare the crap out of the Western world. Then we've got the Bush Administration telling folks that it's not the Saudis but the Iranians and the Syrians in order to shift European public opinion toward fear of Iran and Syria. Though Europe is concerned about Iran's recent efforts toward development of the Bomb, the consensus is that they are years away. Here comes the false-flag. Now, you can't pull off a false flag in Europe alone because it has become clear that Europe still has the lingering taste of two world wars in their mouth and are not anxious to start a fight with anyone at this point. They just wouldn't react as quickly as the U.S. would. In addition, the Oil Bourse is better for Europe than the U.S. so their motivation to stop it is nothing compared to that of the U.S. You might pull of a small scale attack to help align the U.S. and Europe's perspectives, but it's likely an unnecessary risk. Ultimately, the U.S. really needs the world to fear Iran, but quick so you can still expect a false flag. The catch is that it almost HAS TO BE nuclear. If you launch a U.S. based false flag against the U.S. in the name of Iran and you really want the world to see Iran as an immediate threat, you've got to get the world thinking that Iran is much farther along on their nuclear efforts and poses a threat to the entire planet.

Where does that leave us?
In my opinion, it leaves us on the edge of our seats anticipating a nuclear false-flag within the borders of the U.S. Though we already have military assets in Iraq and could move them to Iran more quickly than a fresh deployment directly from the U.S. it still takes a bit of planning to move troops from one hostile territory to another. As a result, I would expect this attack to occur no later than March 1 to allow for some minor planning on our side prior to attack. In fact, I still believe that an invasion of Iran is not a likely goal. I imagine that the U.S., possibly along with Israel will stage a series of bombing runs w/in that country intended to cripple Iran's infrastructure and put a hold on the Oil Bourse. You see, you can't switch the currency through which you trade a commodity if you stop trading the commodity because your supply chain is in shambles. Should Iran push forward to launch the Oil Bourse despite an attack...false-flag #2 will occur against U.S. troops in Iraq which will immediately galvanize world-wide support for a nuclear response which will guarantee that Iran will be too busy counting their dead and hunting for fresh air and water to be able to worry about which currency is tied to their now non-existent exports.

Oh, golly do I hope that I'm wrong, but my magic 8-ball is reeling at the series of coincidences, bluster, and rhetoric which are flying around in prelude the the ominous rollout of the Iranian Oil Bourse. We didn't let Saddam get away with it (even though a recent article has Israeli sources indicating that they were probably better off with Saddam wielding a ruthless dictatorship in Iraq than they are now with virtual chaos in that nation), why are we going to let Iran pull the rug out from under us? We're a nation of cogs in a capitalist machine and believe it or not rebuilding=spending=jobs=healthy economy. Sacrificing tens of thousands of people will only serve to bolster the U.S.'s position politically and economically and as reprehensible as it may be, from the point of view of an administration that's getting it from all sides, it seems like good business.

*I do not apologize or mitigate my contentions above with any additions. After all, they are opinions and as such, should not require apology. Wanna hop in and tear my theories to shreds, feel free, that's what the board is for. Wanna hop in and start a personal rumble where you call into question my political ideology, morals, and motivations and you're not going to see me fight back at all because you're just wasting everyone's time. I recommend to those who want to generate a personalized shouting match to turn on their favorite political news show (embodying the opposite side of the aisle's ideology) and yell their little heads off.

[edit on 9-2-2006 by chaosrain]

[edit on 9-2-2006 by chaosrain]

Hey Chaos,

Good thread. Wish I had more time to respond in more depth but I do feel the 'indicators' do point to a war with Iran soon. Futhermore, I think this 'war' is going to lead to something rather dramatic and unexpected.


Nice pic of Iapetus btw..

Spot on really and well laid out and explained.

Snippets of things we all know and strung together perfect.

GOOD POST

war with Iran: Inevitable.
What will come of it:
Possible drafting
possible foreign troops that are not from the usual crowd (USA, europe) moving in to fight like maybe Mexico. Or possibly the nuking of a nation so that they wont have to suffer a crushing defeat and just build more pipelines and pump out oil while people try and rebuild amoungst the radiotive cities.

can i've a turn of your eight-ball..... it appears to be mystic

no-one could have put it better.....

so everyone expect a nuclear attack on some unsuspecting foe.
It will be america's bomb.

The war machine is rolling.....................



i've been hoarding my WATS votes............. you can have one

chaos, that is simply the best and most well thought out post ive ever read in this place....well done....

fark i hope your wrong though!

So "Bush" even gets blamed for Radical Islam actions. (ie. The Cartoons.)

You forgot the part where he plans to Blow a Nuclear Bomb in America. And blames it on Iran.

Sarcasm aside.

Islam Not Bush is the Cause of the Cartoon fiasco. For them, A "attack" on Mohammed. Is more important, Then the Iraqi puppet regime.

Mohammed is as close to "Allah" as you can get. (For them.) And any attack on "Mohammed" is an attack on "Allah". (Think of Virgin Mary Dung, or Cross in Urine. For a similar response.

Originally posted by msnevil
Islam Not Bush is the Cause of the Cartoon fiasco. For them, A "attack" on Mohammed. Is more important, Then the Iraqi puppet regime.

Mohammed is as close to "Allah" as you can get. (For them.) And any attack on "Mohammed" is an attack on "Allah". (Think of Virgin Mary Dung, or Cross in Urine. For a similar response.

I agree. A muslim at my company asked me ten years ago in 1996 what I thought was the greatest threat to world peace. I told him straight out that it was the rise of Islam among the uneducated. It leaves those people open to any blind manipulation to violence. Granted, there is every one's favorite "The Crusades" to show how "Christians" did the same thing 1000 years ago.

I thought back on it and .... no, I definitely did not kill anyone over the cross in the urine photo, or "Last Temptation of Christ", or the series "Book of Daniel", or "This Week in God" on the Daily Show, or jokes about Jesus on South Park, or the joke about the new Mel Gibson Parody "Get Rich off Christ Dyin'" (by the same people who at first said the Passion of the Christ would be a flop), or the depictions in movies of a "Christians" in
movies at evil hypocrits.....the list goes on.

I don't like it, but...I am sure I didn't hurt anyone over them.

Originally posted by msnevil

You forgot the part where he plans to Blow a Nuclear Bomb in America. And blames it on Iran.

Actually, you must not have read the whole post. I honestly fear the possibility of such a false-flag operation for the purpose of galvanizing world opinion against Iran as a nuclear threat who's not afraid to use them (who, by the way, probably doesn't even have nukes now).

Though it's a topic for another post, here's the even bigger picture:

China recently broke from their longstanding tradition of tieing their currency to the dollar.
Iraq tried unsuccessfully to trade their crude in Euros.
Iran is trying to trade their crude in Euros. (and is being encouraged by China and Russia to do so)
Hugo Chavez and Venezuela have also threatened to trade their crude in Euros (and the U.S. has been discussing the need to foment "regime-change" in Venezuela as a result)

The sum total...there is a global effort underway, sponsored by our greatest threats, Russia and China to destabilize the dollar and subsequently bring the world's largest capitalist economy to its knees. Bush and Co are wise to it and are doing everything they can to stop it. Now I am no fan of the current administration, but I do understand (though I don't condone) their efforts to avoid the destabilization that other nations seek to apply to our economy. My great confusion is that in their efforts to curb other nations' efforts to destabilize us, they are doing a better job at home by providing massive tax cuts and inciting unprecedented deficit spending.

I'm all for stopping the enemy at the gates, but you can't focus solely on your gates when the your greatest enemy seems to come from within.

Chaos,

You got my WATS vote...succinct and to the point and not a trace of sabre-rattling 'bomb 'em BS'....I think you're right on the nail with that analysis

Interesting post

I too always envisaged a 'false flag' op and certainly NBC - possibly nuclear - would be the 'evidence' needed to convince the world Iran must be dealt with.

I suspect it will be in Iraq / on the border and imagine the Kurds would be the 'most expendable' target.

I doubt your timing though - it seems too soon ahead to pre-position the forces needed even for an air war.

Only a few weeks to wait though if you're right

Anyone know where your carriers are?

You have voted chaosrain for the Way Above Top Secret award. You have two more votes this month

Nice post Chaos - I think you're pretty much spot on, unfortunately.

This is going to get ugly. Very soon I fear.

I have a question. Let's say that all these involved countries disengage from the dollar and start trading crude in euros. Like all of them in a domino effect lets say (hypethetical) in a months time, effectively crushing the US's economy.

What would happen to the US?

Originally posted by Cylent773
What would happen to the US?

Lets answer your question with a very applicable past historical event, which was the settling of the Treaty of Versailles and war guilt placed on Germany. With the end of WWI and 'war guilt' placed on Germany, reparations were so vast against Germany that when trying to pay those reparations back caused the German economy to crash, the "domino effect" was that it was not long after that the economies of Europe and then the rest of the world experienced severe depression. Depression did not let up till WWII, a war--the solution to an ailing economy.

As such, your hypothetical scenerio is implausible and quite unlikely to happen. Why? Because the US economy dictates and is so diversified, that if your scenerio happens, once the US economy collapses, it will not be long till the rest of the worlds economy's collapse. China's economy, despite their "untieing" of their currency to the dollar, is critically linked to the US economy and vice versa, and further like examples can be given. Pegging oil solely to the Euro will cause a number of near-instantaneous 'bad' consequences and a massive amount of 'bad' consequences world over in the mid-to-long term.

The world is based on capitalistic globalization, with the US as the lynchpin to the whole program. Theory holds that if the US economy collapses, it will not be long and far behind that the vast majority of the rest of the worlds economies will soon follow to collapse.




seekerof

[edit on 9-2-2006 by Seekerof]

One of the best posts I have ever read. Amazing.

It would appear there is evidence linking the Dannish publication to Daniel Pipes and that lunatic Straussian neocon 'clash of civilisations' ideology -

Under the guise of free speech, a leading Danish newspaper published a dozen provocative anti-Islamic cartoons clearly designed to offend Muslims......

........"Agents of certain persuasion" are behind the egregious affront to Islam in order to provoke Muslims, Professor Mikael Rothstein of the University of Copenhagen told the BBC.
The key "agent" is Flemming Rose, the cultural editor of JP, who commissioned cartoonists to produce the blasphemous images and then published them in Denmark's leading morning paper last September......

.....Rose traveled to Philadelphia in October 2004 to visit Daniel Pipes (look him up, he's a real scary piece of work.), the Neo-Con ideologue who says the only path to Middle East peace will come through a total Israeli military victory.
Rose then penned a positive article about Pipes, who compares "militant Islam" with fascism and communism.

In April 2003, President George W. Bush nominated the rabid anti-Muslim Pipes to the board of the United States Institute of Peace, a congressionally sponsored think tank dedicated to "the peaceful resolution of international conflicts."......

......."If the issue is really one of free speech, would you publish cartoons making fun of the Jewish Holocaust?" I asked Rose and the editors. "If not, do you at least support the right of newspapers and individuals to raise historical questions about the Holocaust?"

Yet after a month of correspondence with Rose and the editors, they have completely avoided answering my questions about the Holocaust and the right of free speech for historical revisionists in Europe.

mathaba.net...


[edit on 10-2-2006 by sminkeypinkey]

Got my WATS vote too.

And the hits just keep on coming...

Syria has switched all of the state's foreign currency transactions to euros from dollars amid a political confrontation with the United States, the head of state-owned Commercial Bank of Syria said on Monday. "It looks like a kind of pre-emptive action aimed at making their foreign assets safer, preventing them from getting frozen in case of any conflict," said a Middle East economist who requested anonymity.

S yria switches to euro amid confrontation with US

Bump. This article is so good it needs to be back on top. Get some more eyes on the information.

I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this, but I just found out that iran, china will sign the final multi-biliion $ oil field deal in MARCH.
www.washingtonpost.com...

RESPECT