SCI/TECH: Bird Flu Alert: Europe on the brink?

In Turkey, the number of identified H5N1 human infections ballooned over the weekend to more than 50 cases, renewing concerns that the virus is about to spread widely into Europe. In the span of just a week, three Turkish children have reportedly died from the virus. The majority of the remaining suspected infections also involve children.



This is starting to look like a real inevitability...

The article also includes the following:

When Muhammet Ali Kocyigit, 14, became Turkey’s first avian flu victim last week, a government spokesman criticised doctors for mentioning the disease because they were “damaging Turkey’s reputation”.

Typical.

Meanwhile, the evidence is becoming more clear...

O Brave New Word......

Related News Links:
www.breitbart.com

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
Turkey


[edit on 8-1-2006 by loam]

Mod Edit: Changed All CAPS

[edit on 1/8/06 by FredT]

[edit on 1-8-2006 by Valhall]

Good find.

This does seem to be a warning sign. Interesting that it's the kids that sickened and died - suggests that older people have been exposed before and maybe do have some kind of immunity.

The fact that there are 50 new cases in the span of a week is VERY frightening....

With every new outbreak the odds of mutation will continue to increase. A couple of items pertinent to this that should not go unmentioned.

First, the three children who died were using the chickens heads as a hacky sack for days. Also, their families did not seek medical treatment for them until they were already very ill.

Secondly, inspite of culling efforts now underway in Turkey - authorities are reporting that many farmers are hiding their poultry.

Agriculture officials wearing face masks and protective white suits carried the sacks away to be culled and dumped in the municipal rubbish tip outside the town, where they are buried in a deep pit and covered with lime.

Culling
One official said 3,500 poultry had been culled in the district so far and this figure was expected to reach 5,000 by the time the operation was completed on Saturday.

However, officials said some families were trying to conceal some of their poultry. source: cnn

And lastly, it appears that the bird flu has reached all the way to Ankara now.

msnbc Turkey announced on Sunday that three people had tested positive for bird flu in the Turkish capital, Ankara, marking a further westward advance of the infection toward the frontiers of Europe.

Something wicked this way comes...


B.

This is quite a flare up. If it continues to spiral up to a few hundred then we're in real trouble.

Kind of ironic that a bird flu epidemic is beginning in "Turkey"

Originally posted by Nerdling
Kind of ironic that a bird flu epidemic is beginning in "Turkey"

lol

Who said God doesn't have a sense of humour

I'm watching the news too - the amount of people that are involved in this outbreak appears significant.

I can't remember where it was - either on the BBC website but on the factors worrying those in the know is that the outbreak is in about ten family clusters and the ones in ankara are at a distance to the main area ... I bet there is intense work going on within the labarotories right now to find the geentic structure of the thing...

Originally posted by infinite

Originally posted by Nerdling
Kind of ironic that a bird flu epidemic is beginning in "Turkey"

lol

Who said God doesn't have a sense of humour

I presume that means everyone should move to either:

Safe, Missouri

or

Safe, North Carolina?

Mapquest



[edit on 8-1-2006 by loam]

Isn't Hell in Michigan?

And it sometimes freezes over.

Originally posted by soficrow
Good find.

This does seem to be a warning sign. Interesting that it's the kids that sickened and died - suggests that older people have been exposed before and maybe do have some kind of immunity.

I think you bring up an interesting point, sofi. It's something that should be followed, if possible.

According to the times article,

A further 18 patients with symptoms of the disease, most of them children, are being treated in hospitals in the eastern cities of Yozgat, Erzurum and Diyarbakir.

and

Yesterday six more children who have tested positive for avian flu remained in a critical condition in the Turkish city of Van

.

There's no mention of the ages of the other 24 who are suspected cases.

Anyway,
I'm not sure of the size of these locations where the infections are occuring, but when you mix children, influenza and school, the results are... well....

My daughter is always bringing something home. It's a breeding ground. If these infections are isolated to smaller villages enrollment rates are lower than in bigger cities, so that could help delay any human to human infection.

Having a quick glace at population stats for Van and Beyazpazari, they are larger cities (20,000 to 65,000)

I've ben reading about this (being the paranoid, over-reactive type that I am) and it seems that these people are in close contact with birds. From what I've read (which is only what "they" tell us), nothing has changed in regard to transmission. This being the case, I am still not in the least bit worried. Yet. But stay tuned as I am always on the lookout for the next big scare bandwagon to join. I've almost used up all my Y2K supplies that I hoarded and need another reason to go on a Sam's Shopping Spree!

Would I be reprimanded if I tagged this thread with "puns, sam's" ?

Gotta love Sam's. Industrial sized toilet paper for regular prices.

Anyway, on a serious note, this is very frightening. Good find, Loam. I don't think its time to worry yet, but we should be prepared, IMHO.

I remember reading most outbreaks have been on Migratory bird flight paths, im looking for a world map with bird paths on it to looky, anyone have one ?


nm found one, check and see if your your about to become the next cougher
www.fao.org/.../ diseases-cards/migrationmap.html



Notice how Australia is virtually the only country/continent that the Bio Hazard Birds fly around?
..... but dont risk it, Avoid KFC buy Mcdonalds (but not the Chickmcnuggets, and if you see a bird, do not approach it, even a sparrow, get a shotgun and make feathers fly !!



[edit on 073131p://27017 by NumberCruncher]

Originally posted by Thomas Crowne
I've ben reading about this (being the paranoid, over-reactive type that I am) and it seems that these people are in close contact with birds. From what I've read (which is only what "they" tell us), nothing has changed in regard to transmission. This being the case, I am still not in the least bit worried. Yet. But stay tuned as I am always on the lookout for the next big scare bandwagon to join. I've almost used up all my Y2K supplies that I hoarded and need another reason to go on a Sam's Shopping Spree!

TC, my sister has a Ph.D. in exotic avian immunology and is a professor of animal science in California, and my father is a former professor of poultry science. This is something near and dear to my family, and it has me worried. I hope that their exposure to other strains of avian flu will afford them some protection, but I doubt it will, and they doubt it as well.

You are correct, though, according to them, that the majority of these occurrences happen to people who are in prolonged, close contact with their birds.

In fact, most are just VERY poor farmers who LITERALLY sleep with their birds because they can't afford proper shelter for their animals separate from their own dwellings. Or, they are idiot children who play hacky-sack with chicken heads. It is sad on the one hand, because to cull their "flocks" might mean ruin for a poor family. Of course, to not cull their flocks might mean ruin for 50 million people.

All we can really do is pray that the morons who are living with potentially infected chickens don’t cause a pandemic before a vaccine for this strain is created.

Sucks, don’t it?

Originally posted by Hamburglar
You are correct, though, according to them, that the majority of these occurrences happen to people who are in prolonged, close contact with their birds.

...It is sad on the one hand, because to cull their "flocks" might mean ruin for a poor family. Of course, to not cull their flocks might mean ruin for 50 million people.

All we can really do is pray that the morons who are living with potentially infected chickens don’t cause a pandemic before a vaccine for this strain is created.

Sucks, don’t it?

Yep. Sucks too that our leaders didn't choose to kick in and support international prevention programs.

BUT - it IS a good thing that the US finally decided to start testing for H5N1- non-lethal H5N1 already was reported in Michigan and California, last year as I recall...

U.S. Farmers to Begin Testing Chickens for Flu

Originally posted by NumberCruncher
Notice how Australia is virtually the only country/continent that the Bio Hazard Birds fly around?
..... but dont risk it,

Actually, if you look at the map, it is showing outbreaks also I belief (look at the red spots) and there seem to be plenty well inside the lines of the migratory path.

I think a map of where the birds are now (that have already passed outbreak areas) might offer a bit more information on when and where to worry. However, I don't feel any safer not being on a line of the path itself. It obviously spreads beyond the migratory path.

Edit: Also - that map is from August 2005. Anyone have a source for a more recent one?

[edit on 1/9/2006 by Relentless]

Seems the link i provided for map is broken, this one works
www.fao.org...

I live in Europe - in Slovenia, which is not so Far away from Turkey, you just have to Cross few Borders to get there, and I am sure that Migratory Birds do not really care for Borders.

Anyway, when I was reading about this in the morning Newspaper, it was said, that the Family of these 3 Dead Children, who died of the Bird Flu Virus, had NO IDEA THERE WAS A BIRD FLUE EPIDEMIC GOING ON!

They were not Warned by the Goverment, and they were not warned by the Local Authorities. And you probably know, that some People do not have Acess to the Internet, or to the other Media.

Well I just thought that was Important in this Story.

Hmmm that is a very important point, mega millions of the worlds poorest would have no access to media, i sure hope someone is going to spread the word before its to late ...

Originally posted by NumberCruncher
Hmmm that is a very important point, mega millions of the worlds poorest would have no access to media, i sure hope someone is going to spread the word before its to late ...

And these Poorest are Mostly Infected with this Virus.

Could it be, that they never got the Word about this Flu going on?

Or maybe they did, but Ignored it.

There was one more thing, that my Friend told me some time ago, when this Euro-Bird-Flue-Paranoia started; he said:

"Did you Notice, that the Bird Flu was found in Countries that are ENTERING European Union, almost ZERO cases found in the Permanent Members of this Union? For example, Croatia had Bird Flu found in Birds - but Slovenia, the First Country North of it, a member of EU, did not.
A Coincidence?"