NASA says it will not deflect possible killer asteroid Apophis

NASA will not mount a mission to deflect an asteroid with a slender chance of hitting Earth until further radar measurements are taken to determine whether the object is a true threat.

Currently, NASA estimates that asteroid Apophis (previously known as 2004 MN4) has a 1 in 5500 chance of hitting Earth in 2036. That depends on whether the asteroid sneaks through a 600-metre-wide region during its close swing past Earth in 2029.

If it threads through that keyhole, its orbit could be perturbed, possibly putting it on a collision course with Earth in 2036. But until radar observations of the asteroid are taken in 2013, it will remain unclear where Apophis is headed.

The asteroid was discovered in 2004 and is thought to measure between 320 and 400 metres in diameter. An asteroid of that size could wipe out a large city if it were to collide with Earth.

2029 path of Apophis

Article link


What the heck, I hope Congress makes NASA deflect it. Better safe than sorry.

Hey if it turns out to be true It will give us more time to GET OFF THIS PLANET! And save the Human Race from Extinction.
But that is just my idea.

Originally posted by NWguy83
What the heck, I hope Congress makes NASA deflect it. Better safe than sorry.

If it's not going to hit us. Why take a risk of possibly making it worse? What if we were to try blowing it up, and then end up sending a big chunk of it towards us? If it's not going to hit us, might as well leave it alone.

I agree with jra; no sense making a potential non-issue into a catastrophy. However, what would be the turnaround to expect if they find it is about to hit? I mean, how quickly could they get a mission up and running? Does NASA have any kind of "scramble" alert in the works?

lol, apophis is an ironic name, an evil spirit of destruction ...

Are you kidding?

What's a 400 meter asteroid goina do?

Why the US could save 100x more lives by not starting any more bloody wars between now and the time that asteroid *might* hit Earth.

And if it comes close, take into account this will be almost 30 years into the future.

Right now, I think it's safe to say such an asteroid can be effectively shot down with a modified rocket (thats rocket, not a ballistic missile) of some sort, carrying a nuclear warhead.

In 30 years, it will probably be 30 times easier.

Nothing to worry about....

Whilst I agree that taking action at this stage would be unnecessary, I would be extremely surprised if NASA did not end up actually going through with this deflection, if for no other reason than to restore some sense of public confidence in NASA and to demonstrate one of the more immediate practical applications of NASA technology and know-how.

After the Columbia tragedy, public confidence in NASA was at an all-time low. The recent launch of the Discovery buoyed public faith in NASA somewhat, although there seemed to be more publicity over what could have gone wrong than there was pride in the mission itself.

Imagine the positive publicity NASA would generate if they were able to successfully divert a comet from a course that may result in a possible collision with Earth. Even if such a collision were a distant, remote possibility, a successful mission would doubtless result in a swell of public approval for NASA. Given this, I am confident that a deflection mission will go ahead, regardless of the actual threat posed by Apophis.

Originally posted by Harvestfreak
Hey if it turns out to be true It will give us more time to GET OFF THIS PLANET! And save the Human Race from Extinction.
But that is just my idea.

And go where? There are no inhabitable planets anywhere near close enough for an evacuation. At this time, we simply do not possess the technology to effect an evacuation of the inhabitants of this planet, to any extent.

What about the cost of such a deflection?

They have to design something, test the heck out of it, to make sure something like what jra said would not happen, and then launch it.

This would cost a lot, and NASA still has the moon mission.

Plus, what happens if something goes wrong? If it doesn't work?
Then NASA would be well and truely screwed.

It doesnt seem like anything to worry about.... Even if they didnt deflect it, all we would have to do is evacuate were its gonna hit at. 30 years to evacuate a city should be enough time.....lol

They're only goina know if it hits or not 2 years from the actual impact.

Right now, all they can do is guess.

And thats STILL if it passes through that "keyhole", which is the part I don't get.
Would someone mind explaning to me what this keyhole is ???

i seriously doubt that the united states and maybe a few other countries do not have the capability to destroy a threat from space. there is so much stuff we do not know about and never will know about. i would not worry about anything. it is also funny the asteroid is named apophis. if it would have been named anubis, it would be the real life episode of stargate.

Well there is a large percent chance that it is going to hit water, correct? So if it does that you have to worry more about tsunami’s hitting all kinds of coast lines as opposed to evacuating only one city.

Originally posted by Manincloak
They're only goina know if it hits or not 2 years from the actual impact.

Right now, all they can do is guess.

And thats STILL if it passes through that "keyhole", which is the part I don't get.
Would someone mind explaning to me what this keyhole is ???

It's a small region of space near where the asteroid is orbiting that has the potential to deflect its orbit slightly to either side. Through gravitational currents, or impact with a smaller asteroid, or another way that I don't know about. They call it a keyhole because it's a very small area that it would have to pass through, and if it doesn't then the orbit won't change, if it does, then the orbit has the POTENTIAL to change.

You realize you did use New Scientist as a source.... Right? I'm sorry, but it's hardly credible. This has been discussed many times over here on ATS, especially after it was discovered.

Asteroid Hit Friday 13th Of Aprill 2029

Asteroid may hit Earth in 2029

Close asteroid will be visible to naked eye

ESA Selects Targets For Asteroid-Deflecting Mission Don Quijote

And that's just a select few...

Originally posted by Manincloak
Right now, I think it's safe to say such an asteroid can be effectively shot down with a modified rocket (thats rocket, not a ballistic missile) of some sort, carrying a nuclear warhead.

In 30 years, it will probably be 30 times easier.

Nothing to worry about....

Not quite. Even with a nuclear warhead, striking an asteroid could very well break it up into smaller pieces, spreading the distruction over a much larger area.

Then again blasting one in front of a large asteroid to "push" it off course has a very low probability of success given the velocities involved. The kenetic energy of a nuke is very low when compaired to that imparted by an asteroid moving at significant speed.

Anyway, it's a moot point as this asteroid has been ruled out. No impact probable.

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

No offence intended but I think that an article written November 2005 trumps that canned NASA article from December 2004. Obviously something has changed in the last year and new information is coming out now.



[edit on 11/2/2005 by defcon5]

Originally posted by cmdrkeenkid
You realize you did use New Scientist as a source.... Right? I'm sorry, but it's hardly credible. This has been discussed many times over here on ATS, especially after it was discovered.

Asteroid Hit Friday 13th Of Aprill 2029

Asteroid may hit Earth in 2029

Close asteroid will be visible to naked eye

ESA Selects Targets For Asteroid-Deflecting Mission Don Quijote

And that's just a select few...

Uh what planet are you from? New Scientist is a good source. And this article is about NASA deciding (for now) not to do anything about it. Did you even bother to read it...

Originally posted by cmdrkeenkid
You realize you did use New Scientist as a source.... Right? I'm sorry, but it's hardly credible.

I've seen a comment simular to this before on ATS and I'm just wondering what the issue is with www.newscientist.com...

I read their articles from time to time and find the site fairly good.
Do they have some sort of agenda that I'm not seeing, or is their reporting biased in some way??? Are they getting their facts wrong???

1. why should NASA foot the bill to save the world? Shouldn't every nation kick in?

2. If an asteroid is going to hit in 2029, the illuminati and the new world order folks might want to consider switching to the truncated master plan of global domination. they're running out of time or is this also part of their plan?

Originally posted by defcon5
No offence intended but I think that an article written November 2005 trumps that canned NASA article from December 2004. Obviously something has changed in the last year and new information is coming out now.
[edit on 11/2/2005 by defcon5]

Ok here are 4 more articles. The main thing to realize is that even though the asteroid will come close, the odds of it hitting the "keyhole" point and significantly altering it's course are neglegable.

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

impact.arc.nasa.gov...

www.theregister.com...