The Next Five Disasters

LONG article!

www.thewavemag.com...


Read more at the site about -
East Coast - Mega land slide and Tsunami
Pacific North West - Mt. Rainer
USA - Pandemic of Avian Flu
TX - Tornado Cluster
Boulder CO. - Flash Flood

[edit on 10/12/2005 by FlyersFan]

Great link Flyers Fan. :UP:

...Wish you had written more. It's not my exact list, but hey - it's a good list - and a GREAT intro sentence!

I think the New Madrid fault should be considered also. In 1811-12 not many people were affected altho' it shook 16 states in central US. Today millions would likely be killed and injured, not to mention interruption of transportation across the country. Essentially, the US would be cut right down the middle, along the Mississippi River, each side cut off from the other. And that isn't even looking at what the river itself would do. This site shows an old map of the area the River tore up before it settled in the present bed. There are also personal accounts of those who experienced it and many other bits of information.
www.hsv.com...

East Coast tsunami: sounds plausible from the article, although I don't know too much about geology. Not sure what could be done in defense of a tsunami though, other than evacuation plans. I don't know how likely this one is, but it definitely sounds like the worst possibility of the 5 disasters. If this one happened, it could be as bad as Katrina or the Indonesia tidal wave, I think.

Mt. Rainier: this one sounds more plausible to me than the tsunami, although not as disastrous. (still bad, though!) My mom was telling me just this morning that some people think Mt. St. Helens is going to erupt again soon, which wouldn't be good, either. Fortunately, I think that seismologists are fairly good at detecting when volcanos are about to blow, giving enough time to evacuate, assuming an evacuation plan has been formed. (correct me if I'm wrong about this)

Avian Flu: Personally, I think avian flu has been blown way out of proportion, so I'm not worried about this one at all. People have been harping on this one for years, and nothing has happened except for a few isolated deaths, that I am aware of. The article does mention that most experts consider H5N1 a 'when, not if' problem, and I'm certainly no expert. My gut just tells me this isn't a problem, but I've been wrong before.

Tornado: Tornados can be a big problem, especially when you're not used to them. I live in Edmonton, and whenever someone mentions 'the tornado', they are referring to this event. It's the only tornado we've ever had in the city, and one of only a very few that have occurred in the entire province. We were totally unprepared for it, since we'd never had one before. 27 people died and lots of property was wrecked, too.

Colorado flash flood: This one sounds like it could be nasty, and it did happen once in 1894, so there's proof it could be a big problem. But again, I'm not sure what they can do to combat this, other than give evacuation warnings.

I would rank them personally in this order, #1 being the biggest problem, in my opinion.

#1 East coast tsunami (potential for massive numbers of deaths, 10s of thousands)
#2 Mt Rainier and Colorado flash flood (potential for lots of death, but less than #1, maybe hundreds of deaths?)
#3 Tornado (potential for death on a lesser scale than #1 or #2, a few dozen deaths or so)
#4 Avian flu (maybe could be really bad, but like I said, I think it's blown out of proportion.) Thousands of deaths or more if it mutates, but only a very few if it stays the way it is. If I could be convinced mutation was more likely, it would move up to about #2, since it could kill as many as a tsunami, but it is more preventable, since medicine can help.

Good list, FlyersFan, and the article was an interesting read. Thx for posting it! Hopefully people in those areas will see it and take precautions accordingly.

Originally posted by DragonsDemesne

#4 Avian flu (maybe could be really bad, but like I said, I think it's blown out of proportion.) Thousands of deaths or more if it mutates, but only a very few if it stays the way it is. If I could be convinced mutation was more likely, it would move up to about #2, since it could kill as many as a tsunami, but it is more preventable, since medicine can help.

Boy Dragon I hope you are right, but personally I think you're missing the over-all potential for any Pandemic, let alone H5H1(Avian flu strain). It could be 9/11 times 1000...

Sorry, couldn't resit. Check out these links.

en.wikipedia.org...

www.cdc.gov...

abcnews.go.com...

news.bbc.co.uk...

www.globalresearch.ca...
Must read!

Finally, this could all (flu pandemic) happen before Christmas 2005!
My advice is to stay away from "fatty foods" and alcohol, and DO NOT GET RUN DOWN.
DO GET, plenty of rest, eat wisely (fresh vegi's and fruit), start taking multi-vitanims, and drink plenty of fluids.

If the virus mutates and becomes transmutable between humans it will spead world wide very quickly, in a matters days or weeks.

SHORT VERSION: STAY AWAY FROM McDONALDS

If Yellowstone blows, and there are signs that it may in the near future, it could put enough particulate matter in the air to bring on a GLOBAL winter.
This I think is no. uno. New madrid close second. East coast tsunami 3. Pandemic of somekind no. 4. And last but not least, the ever popular WWIII.

Sleep tight, Ladybug!

[edit on 12-10-2005 by whaaa]

Ikema: Thanks for those links, I read all of them. Very interesting stuff. I'm wishing I owned stock in Roche... (inventors of Tamiflu) All those governments stockpiling it, back orders by the millions...

Hopefully if H5N1 does become a problem in the future, we will have enough Tamiflu stockpiled to treat the infected.

I did find it quite interesting that the BBC article says world experts think that if avian flu became pandemic, it could kill 2million to 50 million (reasonable, compared with past epidemics like spanish flu), while the ABCtimes article says it "could kill a billion people worldwide".

The BBC article also mentions that 115 people have died in SE Asia to H5N1 since 2003. Certainly, this is bad, but small compared to many other illnesses.

whaaa: I was so surprised by your Yellowstone claim that I decided to try to find some links. These BBC articles seem to be the main links; most other sites I found refer back to them.

news.bbc.co.uk...
news.bbc.co.uk...

I'm not that convinced that we're in that much danger from tornados here in Dallas. Maybe it's just because I'm a Texan and we have these things all the time. We did have a Category 5 south of Dallas about 10 years ago and there is the occasional wind shear damage or tornado hit to a small section of houses. But I'm not convinced about a real cluster of storms taking out Dallas.

One thing the reviewer missed is that Dallas isn't just "Dallas." It's a huge metroplex comprised of at least 20 smaller cities plus the cities of Dallas and Ft. Worth. The landscape is complex and the islands of heat are not regular. On a flat "parking-lot" type place (I know y'all think we're flatland, but we're not) then yes, I could sort of see that.

But I think the physics is wrong for that ... at this time. I would be curious to see how they ran the data, though.

Originally posted by DragonsDemesne
Avian Flu: Personally, I think avian flu has been blown way out of proportion, so I'm not worried about this one at all. People have been harping on this one for years, and nothing has happened except for a few isolated deaths, that I am aware of. The article does mention that most experts consider H5N1 a 'when, not if' problem, and I'm certainly no expert. My gut just tells me this isn't a problem, but I've been wrong before.

Wishfull thinking can get people killed. When dealing with a rapidly evolving virus you can never be too carefull. Best defense is excellent hygene. BTW This could infect rought half a billion people and kill conservatively 10-20 % of them. But if it does become more infectious it could get less virulent pushing it down towards H1N1's kill rate of 3-5 % (it infected roughly half the worlds population)

Some historical perspective.

en.wikipedia.org...

EDIT: Changed "(it infected roughly half a billion people as well)" to"(it infected roughly half the worlds population)"

[edit on 12-10-2005 by sardion2000]

Every year about this time we start hearing about the "flu". Is it possible this bird flu is being over-hyped by a government that doesn't want to be seen asleep at the wheel?
Last year I decided not to take the flu shot even tho' I am an "at risk" (older and take steroids) person. I was fine. I considered my lifestyle, I rarely go anywhere, when I grocery shop I go in the middle of the night when it is less crowded and in winter when I do have to go after prescriptions, I can cover my face with a scarf or muffler as it is cold and keep my distance from coughs.
I don't plan to take a flu shot this year either. Now that the push is on to make medicines and vaccines out of human stem cells, I don't want anything to do with them, no matter what the risk is.
What is worrying me more is that the fed is trying to make a case for using the military to maintain order during an epidemic. Who decides when it is an epidemic? What kind of order will they maintain? We have seen how miserably the fed handles emergencies, why would the military do any better? Katrina was an exercise in "No! You can't....!"

It's hardly crying wolf when we already have experience with a deadly pandemic that killed half a million American's in 1918 As per usually this will hit the poor and underdeveloped counties the hardest, allthough with ubiquitious air travel if you are not on your feet 24/7 during flu season then you are inviting disaster. BTW Overreliance on Tamiflu could create a "superflu" so to speak. Over-reliance of Anti-Biotics has prompted Super-Bacterial infections to become more common in Hospitols. (where they are usually contracted and incubated due to our lack of ability to properly deal with the buggers)

When I went to the hospitol for a serious injury I suffered while biking it was while the whole Sars thing was going down in Toronto. They treated me like a plauge carrier while the did tests on me before I even entered the hospitol, all with full scrubs on and face gear and eye protection it was as if I was in another universe. If you practice proper hygene you should not be too worried.

The 7th leading cause of death is from Infuenza ... another at risk population is those in convalescence homes and retirement homes. Toronto just had a spate of Legionarries disease that killed quite a few people in a Retirement home.

www.wrongdiagnosis.com...
Deaths from Flu: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)
Cause of death rank: 7th leading cause of death in 1999 and 2000 is "pneumonia/influenza" (CDC)
Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second.
Deaths information for Flu: An estimated 100,000 hospitalizations and about 20,000 deaths occur each year from the flu or its complications.1 ... average of 20,000 to 40,000 deaths per year.2 ... in the United States more than 100,000 people are hospitalized and more than 20,000 people die from the flu and its complications every year.3 ... In an average year, flu leads to about 20,000 deaths nationwide and many more hospitalizations.4
Average life years lost from Flu: 9.5 years for pneumonia/influenza (SEER)5; 10.9 for pneumonia/influenza in North Carolina6; 4.3 average YPLL/person for pneumonia and influenza in Michigan7

Now what's worrying is just how much more virulent could it get? They have already confirmed some disturbing genetic similarities with H1N1(Spanish Flu) they recreated recently. That in iteslf should be a yellow flag at the very least.

[edit on 12-10-2005 by sardion2000]

[edit on 12-10-2005 by sardion2000]

Thats a Good list... here is my top 5.

1. YellowStone Super Volcano -
We are 40,000 overdue for this volcano to blow, and when it does it will cover most of America in Ash, Block out the Sun for months to YEARS, cause a nuclear winter, and... destroy crops for Years... Food Shortages World Wide would kill more people than the blast itself.

2. Bird Flu
The last Flu epidemic killed around 100,000,000 people ... and this was BEFORE air Travel. There have been reports that Tamiflu doesn't work. The Government is ready to Quarentine any city into a state of Lock-Down when this flu breaks out.

3. World War III. -
C'mon you know its coming, and its going to be Nuclear and Scalar War.

4. Tsunami on the East Coast of America.
Scientists know that it will happen one day...but it could be 1000's of years from now. The Volcano on the African Island will one day explode pushing the side of the island into the ocean causing a 100 foot Tsunami to strike the Entire East Coast of America. America would go bankrupt from the Property Damage this would cause.

5. New Madrid Fault Zone
From Lousisiana to St.Louis, when this Earth Quake happens it is expected that 500,000 people will be left homeless from this disaster.

Originally posted by soficrow
...Wish you had written more.

I was going to, but anything I could have said would
have just been watering down the main facts - the five
points they made. So I figured they were the big info
and nothing I could say would be of any significance.

But hey ... thanks for wanting me to say something!
Lots of times I get told just the opposite around here!

Originally posted by Where2Hide2006
4. Tsunami on the East Coast of America.
5. New Madrid Fault Zone

Since others here are posting their top 5, I'll add mine.
I have them in order of how likely I think they are to happen.

1 - Tsunami on the East Coast - for all the reasons Where2Hide said.
2 - New Madrid Fault Zone
3 - The Earthquake on the EAST coast - the fault runs all the way from
Maine, through NYC, down to the coast of S. Carolina (where there
is a lost unexploded nuke buried in the sand off shore somewhere!!)
4 - Mt. Rainer
5 - Yellowstone



[edit on 10/13/2005 by FlyersFan]

I decided to put them in a different order. This time #1. Will be the event that I think will happen 1st, and #5 will be the one that I think will happen last. Sorry no dates or years, I am not a prophet.

1. Bird Flu
2. World War III
3. New Madrid Fault Zone
4. YellowStone Super Volcano
5. Tsunami on the East Coast of America


I think the New Madrid Earthquake will cause the Yellowstone Eruption shortly after...maybe 4 months at the most.

I'm feeling much too lazy to turn this into an ATSNN article, but here is a story I saw about H5N1 making its way to Europe.

today.reuters.com...

I'll go with the following:

1. Earthquake in Afghanistan/India/Pakistan/Iraq area within 6 months
2. Spring: heavy rains and snowmelt cause floods in Northeast US
3. U.S. hurricane (at least three biggies next year)
4. Two large arthquakes along the Indian continental plate (Pakistan through Iraq and Turkey area. Large and active plate.)
5. Return of the Killer Heat Wave in Europe next summer.

No, I don't have a thing against Europe. I'm just going on previous patterns of problems.

I think the US will have the usual crop of tornadoes, but the changing weather patterns are going to shift areas of drought and rainfall worldwide. I think the warming oceans mean more large Cat 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes.


And yes, I think the Bird Flu is going to be a bust, thankfully. Like SARS and so forth.

[edit on 14-10-2005 by Byrd]

I have to agree with Byrd, the "bird" flu looks to be a dud. There's a big difference between us and the people who are being infected with it now. For one thing, we don't have chickens and ducks wandering in and out of the house. These folks have lived with animals for generations, it would be likely they'd pick up and develop susceptibilities to animal diseases. For us to become susceptible to those diseases I think will take a bit longer. Our immunities will have to become compromised and that takes time. We've been taking vaccinations for flu for years now and still haven't seen a pandemic.
I live with a cat and two dogs. They don't give me their infections and I haven't noticed that I give them infections. If my family had lived among dogs and cats for generations, sharing infections might become likely but it isn't happening yet. My dog caught some kind of something from a raccoon he killed, his muzzle swelled up with red painful bumps. I had to give him steroids to get it cleared up. I didn't catch anything from him and neither did the other dog or the cat. These "scientists" are jumping the gun but of course such exposure gets name recognition, doesn't it? If so-and-so opines that bird flu will make the human to human jump and it does, then so-and-so is an "expert" isn't he? If not, he's forgotten until the next dire worry comes to his mind. So is the bird flu a real worry, or creative job security?

[edit on 14-10-2005 by Alikospah]

The biggest upcoming disaster will be the 2008 'hillary for President' campaign.

Originally posted by Byrd
3. U.S. hurricane (at least three biggies next year)

We got/are getting three biggies THIS year ...

Katrinia, Rita, and now Wilma. Pressure this morning is
884 - the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic
making this the strongest hurricane ever recorded in
the atlantic.

My prediction - after it crosses Florida it will come up the
East coast and slam through New England - repeating what
that hurricane in the 1920's did.