Severe Geomagnetic Storm Research Project:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1150
Issue Time: 2006 Mar 10 2314 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2006 Mar 10 2312 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: Yes

sec.noaa.gov...

Solar wind speed is higher due to a coronal hole - CH125:
speed: 540.6 km/s
density: 4.4 protons/cm3

The solar activity remains very low, with only a few small
sunspots.

On the other hand, there was a sharp rise of the solar wind
speed around 8:00UT today, March 18, together with a Southward rotation
of the interplanetary magnetic field (-10nT). This transition marked the
return of a recurrent coronal hole stream, about one day earlier than in
the previous solar rotation. It triggered active geomagnetic conditions
(Kp=4), as recorded by many ground stations.

Now, the wind speed has started a slow decline, while the Bz field component turned again Northward.
Current measurements indicate that the geomagnetic field returns already to unsettled conditions.
However, new active periods may still occur in the next 24 to 48 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions should then follow.

Source: sidc.be..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium, Royal Observatory of Belgium -

On Wednesday, 2006 March 29, a total eclipse of the Sun will be visible from within a narrow corridor which traverses half the Earth.



The path of the Moon's umbral shadow begins in Brazil and extends across the Atlantic, northern Africa, and central Asia where it ends at sunset in western Mongolia. A partial eclipse will be seen within the much broader path of the Moon's penumbral shadow, which includes the northern two thirds of Africa, Europe, and central Asia.
Source & full information: NASA

As Severe Geomagnetic Storm Project we will follow this event closely because, even though, it is not a solar flare, eclipses have always affected the Earth and humans.
We will have to check the days before, the day of and the days after the event to compare the increase or decrease of earthquakes, solar flares, volcanic eruptions, etc.

Though many of us will not have the chance to see it, we will have a great opportunity to study the events caused by the eclipse.

BTW, if you are lucky and will be able to experience the eclipse, never look directly at the sun with naked eyes or through optical devices!

We will make our best to inform ATS about events taken place close in time with the total eclipse of the sun by checking the news around, studying the data and sharing it with the forum.

We are interested on all kind of natural disasters (quakes, volcanic eruptions, severe weather, ...) taken place from March the 26 to March the 31st. Should you have information to share with us, please, U2U Ptolomeo. Thank you for your collaboration and readings. We really appreciate your support.

A moderate to major geomagnetic storm (Kp=5-6) is in progress since
yesterday March 18, around 20:00UT. It was caused by a new rise of the
solar wind speed to 650km/s, with simultaneous wide Southward excursions of the Bz component of the IMF.

external image

All ground-based magnetographs currently show a decrease of the geomagnetic activity. However, as the solar windspeed stays high, we still expect possible active to minor storm surges in the next 12 to 24h.

Source: Solar Influences Data Analysis Center, Belgium - Royal Observatory

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 236
Issue Time: 2006 Mar 19 0042 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2006 Mar 19 0040 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Solar Wind speed: 609.4 km/s
density: 3.4 protons/cm3



Solar forecast:
•Unsettled to major storm levels on March 19.
•Quiet to minor storm levels on March 20.
•Quiet to unsettled on March 21-22.


Sunspots are coming back!

These prominences may have had a synergistic effect
in producing the current geomag storm level.

Greg Piepol photographed at least five dancing along the limb of the sun on March 16th.
www.sungazer.net...

Current geomagnetic storm + full moon was on the 14th
= above average chance for a major earthquake.

Coincidence? Moscow subway tunnel collapses -CNN

external image

Catania sunspot group 15 (NOAA ARs 10860 and 10862) has grown
up and possesses a complicated magnetic field configuration.
A C-flare from this group is possible.

The Earth is now situated in the fast solar wind flow (with a speed around 700 km/s). The IMF magnitude has decreased in comparison with yesterday's values, so we do not expect a significant increase of the geomagnetic activity.
Occasional periods of K = 4 are possible. The fast flow is produced by the equatorial coronal hole now situated in the Western hemisphere.

Source: Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium

Catania sunspot group 15 (NOAA AR 0862) has grown up further
and developed a beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic
field.

external image

C2.5 and C1.3 flares (peaking at 09:44 UT and 12:04 UT
respectively) occurred today in this group. More C-flares are possible,
and there is a low probability for an M-flare.

The solar wind speed decreased down to around 600 km/s and the magnetic field remains at the average level. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours.

Source: Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium, Royal Observatory of Belgium

Solar activity picks up after a hiatus with 3 C-class flares today.

2006/03/21 09:15:00 09:56:00 09:44:00 C2.5
2006/03/21 12:01:00 12:07:00 12:04:00 C1.3
2006/03/21 16:28:00 16:40:00 16:33:00 C2.4

A growing trend of just an anomaly?

If your in the area, it would be a great opportunity to learn about space weather.
Fees are $250 for the entire conference or $100/day.


We should be seeing more news and articles published after the conference in regards to space weather and its effects on Earth.

Anomaly or Trend?
A total of 6 C class events were recorded yesterday on the 21st, and the effects from coronal hole 217 could reach Earth on March 24th causing unsettled conditions on March 25th. The C-Class flares didn't appear to be geoeffective, since no earth directed CMEs were observed.

www.lmsal.com...

They're Back!



Sunspot 10865 has developed further with opposing polarity meaning M-class flares are possible.

Satellite Failures could be related to recent solar activity:

April 4, 2006
Real Satellite Concerns For Radio

A satellite that carries a large number of radio programs, including heavy usage by ABC, Clear Channel, Jones and Westwood One, is experiencing power circuit failures, according to a report from Radio magazine. The report says that SES Americom has notified the users of the AMC-8 satellite that failures of three power circuits have pressed the company to begin work to relocate the services currently distributed by the satellite.

March 30, 2006
New Zealand; Sky Digital TV Blackout as satellite fails

Sky spokeman Tony O'Brien says the signal was lost while the satellite was being re-positioned, but that communications with the ground station are restored and Optus will re-point the satellite, a maneovre which should be complete about about midnight. Updates will be published on the Sky website.

March, 29, 2006
Broadcasts in Far East cut after Russian telecom satellite fails

MOSCOW, March 29 (RIA Novosti) - Broadcasts in Russia's Far East were interrupted after a communications satellite failed in the early hours of Wednesday, the space agency said.

"Contact [with the Express AM11] was lost at 3.40 a.m. Moscow time [11.40 p.m. GMT] and has yet not been restored," the agency's information center said.

Another Express spacecraft, Express A2, is currently broadcasting Russian television Channel One, RTR, and Kultura in the region.

Satellite operator Kosmicheskaya Svyaz refused to comment.

The timing of these three separate satellite failures seems to be too coincidental, since they are just days apart, speculation is that impact of some sort could have taken out the Russian satellite, the others give no reason. But could it be that solar activity and geomagnetic fields contributed to their failure?

On Wednesday, 2006 March 29, a total eclipse of the Sun was visible from within a narrow corridor traversing half the Earth. The path of the Moon's umbral shadow started in Brazil and extended across the Atlantic, northern Africa, and central Asia where it ended at sunset in western Mongolia. A partial eclipse was visible within the much broader path of the Moon's penumbral shadow, which included the northern two thirds of Africa, Europe, and central Asia.


Source of the image: NASA

The duration of the eclipse was about 3 minutes, 45 seconds at Manavgat on Turkey´s Mediterranean coast, and 3 minutes, 30 seconds at Ordu on the Black Sea coast.

There is no evidence that eclipses have any physical effect on humans. However, eclipses have always been capable of producing some effects.
Every civilization in Human´s history has interpreted solar eclipses in different ways, most of them considered solar eclipses events of ill and were feared, because for most of human history, people did not understand what an eclipse was.
Scientifics are able to explain the phenomenon but superstitions still continue.

Besides superstitions many believe that solar eclipses can produce some effects on Earth, animals and/or humans. But, what is real about it?

We are aware of the Moon´s effect on Earth, animals and humans, but what about the Sun? And what happens when a solar eclipse takes place?

The Severe Geomagnetic Storm Research Project´s Team has selected the relevant information in relation with events taken place from March 26 to March 31 in order to verify if the solar eclipse caused an increase in the activity of volcanoes, quakes, etc.

The previous days:

Solar activity.
Solar activity was dominated by Catania sunspot group 15 (NOAA AR 0862), which developed a beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. It produced several C-flares, the strongest one being the C2.5 flare on March 21. The group started to decay on March 22.
The solar situation thus became quiet (with occasional weak B-flares) and remained so until the end of the week.
Another sunspot group (NOAA AR 0863, Catania number 17) remained small and did not produce any significant activity. CME activity also was very low during the week.

Geomagnetic activity .

Geomagnetic activity. In the beginning of the week the Earth was situated in the fast solar wind flow produced by the equatorial coronal hole. NOAA SEC, IZMIRAN and Dourbes reported K index equal to 5 on March 20.
Occasional intervals of K = 4 were observed on March 20 - 22.
Then the solar wind speed has decreased and, starting from March 24, the Earth was inside the slow solar wind flow. The geomagnetic situation was quiet since the morning of March 22.

Health.

A new H5N1 bird flu mutation with a 91% fatality rate in humans appeared this month: between March 1 and March 24 of 2006, the WHO reported 12 new H5N1 cases with 11 deaths.

2006 March 26

Solar and geomagnetic activity were quiet and were expected to remain so. The Earth was inside the slow solar wind flow with average magnetic field.

Earthquakes.

Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is. Alaska: 2.7, 4.6,
4.8 South Sandwich Islands Region
Southern Alaska 2.9, 3.1
4.9 Papua, Indonesia
5.3 Tarapaca, Chile
3.9 Northern Alaska
5.3 Kyushu, Japan
5.3 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
5.0. Samoa Islands Region
Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska 3.9, 4.9,
4.6 Ganshu, China
2.7 Central Alaska
4.5 Banda Sea
Izu Islands, Japan Region 4.6, 4.5
Luzon, Philippines 4.7, 4.8
2.9 Kodiak Island Region, Alaska
4.9 Kermadec Islands Region
4.6 Southern Iran
Offshore Northern California 2.6, 2.9, 4.6
4.7 Near the Coast of Central Peru
4.7 South of Panama
4.2 Virgin Islands
3.8 Off the Coast of Southeastern Alaska

2006 March 27

Earthquakes

2.6 Baja California, Mexico
5.6 Mindoro, Philippines
5.2 Fiji Region
Southern Alaska 2.6, 2.9
2.6 Island of Hawaii, Hawaii
Puerto Rico Region 3.4, 2.9
2.9 Southern Alaska
4.0 Near the Coast of Central Peru
4.6 Nias Region, Indonesia
2.6 Alaska Peninsula
Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is. Alaska 2.7, 4.3
4.8 South Sandwich Islands Region
3.5 Virgin Islands
4.9 Papua, Indonesia
2.9 Puerto Rico Region
5.3 Tarapaca, Chile
3.9 Northern Alaska
5.5 Kyushu, Japan
3.7 Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska
5.5 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
5.0 Samoa Islands Region

2006 March 28

Earthquakes

4.8 Guatemala
Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is. Alaska 2.7, 3.1
4.5 Laptev Sea
2.6 Baja California, Mexico
Fox Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska 3.4, 4.1
5.0 Unimak Island Region, Alaska
4.3 Southern Alaska
Puerto Rico Region 3.4, 3.4
5.9 Izu Islands, Japan Region
3.8 Kodiak Island Region, Alaska
2.7 Virgin Islands
5.0 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia
2.6 Island of Hawaii, Hawaii
5.4 South Sandwich Islands Region
3.3 Northern Alaska
3.7 North Atlantic Ocean

Weather

Category 5 Cyclone Glenda strikes Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Glenda, born on the 27th tapped into the full energy over the Indian Ocean off the northwestern Australia where Government forecasters rated it as a category-5 storm.


2006 March 29

Geomagnetic Conditions.

The solar wind speed dropped to around 360 km/s, while the IMF intensity was modest with a weak Bz component fluctuating close to zero.

Solar activity remained at low level though the active region rotating over the E limb could increase the background soft X-ray and 10.7 cm radio fluxes.

An All-Quiet Alert was extended for a further 48 hrs.

Earthquakes

3.3 Island of Hawaii, Hawaii
3.8 Central Alaska
Northern Alaska 3.7, 3.7, 3.5
Southern Alaska 2.9, 2.7
Southern California 2.5,4.1
2.9 Central California
Andreanof Islands, Aleutian IS., Alaska 2.9 , 5.2, 2.6
4.7 Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan
Tonga Region 5.1, 5.3
2.5 Utah
4.6 Northern Yukon Territory, Canada
5.3 Izu Islands, Japan Region

2006 March 30

Geomagnetic Conditions.

The solar wind speed was steady at about 340 km/s while the IMF was weak with a small Bz component fluctuating near zero.

Catania 19 was expected to produce B-class events, with small potential for an isolated C-class flare.

There was an All-Quiet Alert in effect.

Earthquakes

4.7 Western Iran
Mona Passage 3.2, 2.8, 3.0
4.7 Tonga
Virgin Islands 3.4, 3.4
3.2 Northern Alaska
3.4 North Atlantic Ocean
2.5 Central California
3.4 Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska
3.4 Virgin Islands
3.5 Gulf of Alaska
2.0 Island of Hawaii, Hawaii

2006 March 31

Geomagnetic and solar conditions.

The All-Quiet Alert ended on March 31.

Solar activity could be due to beta-gamma region 0865 (Catania 19) capable of producing C-flares.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet.

The IMF however was directed southward during the last hours and geomagnetic conditions were expected to remain mostly quiet.

Earthquakes.

6.4 Kermadec Islands Region
4.8 Jilin, China
Western Iran 4.9, 4.7, 5.7
2.5 Baja California, Mexico
3.0 Northern California
5.0 South of the Fiji Islands
Southern Alaska 2.5, 3.0
3.6 Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is., Alaska
3.4 Virgin Islands
4.3 Off the Coast of Costa Rica

The Iran quakes caused 70 deaths and 1.200 injured, though the number of victims has surely increased. Thousands lost their home.

Weather

Tornado Southeast Kansas (Montgomery County)
Several injured


VOLCANOES

Ol Doinyo Lengai, Tanzania – Africa
Erupted around 30 March forcing evacuation.

Ubinas, Peru
Increased fumarolic activity occurred during the end of March.
Augustine, Cook Inlet, Alaska – USA
Low-level eruptive activity continued during 24-31 March.

Bagana, Bouganville Island, Papua New Guinea
During 16 Feb. To 31 March, activity was at moderate levels.

Galeras, Colombia
Increase in the energy of earthquakes at Galeras, which began on 28 March until 29

Kilaueau, Hawai´i USA
During 29 March to 3 April, lava from the volcano flowed off of a lava delta into the ocean.

Langila, New Britain, Papua New Guinea
16 Feb. – 31 March, low-level activity continued at Crater 2.

Santa Ana, El Salvador
24-31 March, activity decreased to low levels

Soufriere Hills, Montserrat, West Indies
24-31 March, lava-dome growth focused towards the E, with lava lobe growing.

Mount St. Helens, USA
Growth of the new lava dome inside the crater continued during 29 March-3 April.

Tungurahua, Ecuador
29 March – 2 April small to moderate explosions.

Anathan, Mariana Islands
March: volcanic activity has increased somewhat. Alert-level Advisory, aviation: Color Code Yellow.

Fuego, Guatemala
22-28 March, explosions with gas plumes and short pyroclastic avalanches.

Pacaya, Guatemala.
22-28 March. Incandescent material ejected and avalanches.

Santa María, Guatemala
22-28 March. Weak-to-moderate explosions and ash plumes.

Starting April 2006.

It was a solar active week. At the beginning of the week, 3 active regions were visible on the disk just east of the central meridian. By the end of the week, they rotated behind the west limb. There was a C4 on April 3 and two M flares on April 6. On April 5, there were several C flares. On April 7, a C9.7 was the largest one.

Though the week started under quiet geomagnetic conditions, a first interval of active to minor storm levels occurred on April 5-6. Near the end of the week, a large transequatorial southern coronal hole caused a geomagnetic storm (Kp reached 4,5,6). The solar wind speed rose up to 700 km/s and the IMF had a long duration of negative Bz.


Thank you for reading the previous information.
We hope that this data has been useful for you to take your own conclussions.
Should you have any comments about it, please do not hesitate to share your ideas with us by U2U a member of the Team.
Thank you for your collaboration.
Ptolomeo.


Sources used:
· Solar Influences Data analysis Center - - RWC Belgium, Royal Observatory of Belgium
· USGS
· Volcano World
· CNN

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2006 Apr 14 1040 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: No
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

SEATTLE, WA, Apr 13, 2006--Average daily sunspot numbers for the week were up more than 12 points to 70.7. What really happened was that for the seven days of March 30 through April 5, the daily sunspot number at the start of the period was 35, and it rose to 88 by the seventh day. April 6 is the first day of the reporting period for this bulletin, and on that day the sunspot number rose to 105. The next day it dropped way down to 65, then 57, then 46 last Sunday, and by Wednesday, April 12 it had risen again to 79.

Charts seem to be indicating we peaked at solar minimum already.



Full moon was on April 13th + K-index of 7 =
above average probability of a major earthquake.



[edit on 14-4-2006 by Regenmacher]

There is very good conditions now to see the northern lights (aurora borealis)

Nordlys - Northern Lights

Northern Lights Activity Right Now

Based on satellite measurements, auroral activity on Earth right now is:

9/10 - Very Strong Conditions

[edit on 2006/4/26 by Hellmutt]

Big quake in East Russia, may bring forth some volcanic eruptions in Kamchatka.

Magnitude 7.6 - KORYAKIA, RUSSIA
2006 April 20 23:25:04 UTC

Large sunspot 10875 rolling into view which is capable of producinfg M-class flares with its beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure.

Sunspot 875 has a twisted, complex magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. spaceweather

Region 10875 developed slowly and remains capable of producing M class flares. There is a magnetic delta structure in the northeastern part of the main penumbra. Flare: long duration C1.3 peaking at 07:26 UTC. This was associated with a CME over the southeast limb. Region 10876 was quiet. Magnetically the region has negative polarity areas in the east and west with a weaker positive polarity area in between. source

X-ray flux (solar activity) is on the rise:



Solar flares equal higher stroke risk or perhaps even seizures?



Looks like there's more to the sun's dance and electrical brain activity than we have yet to discover.

The big flares are back!
Strongest x-ray flares since September 15th, 2005.

2006/04/26 17:02:00 M1.3
2006/04/27 15:52:00 M7.9





The M1.3 and M7.9 solar flares are not expected to cause major geomagnetic activity, but the next 2 days will tell the whole story. Super cyclone Mala in the Bay of Begal increased from Cat 1 to Cat 4 strength yesterday the when the geomagnetic storm arose...coincidence?

Super Cyclone Mala Heads Towards Burma at Cat 4/144mph winds



[edit on 29-4-2006 by Regenmacher]

A high speed stream from coronal hole #225 will be responsible for some geomagnetic storm intervals thru the 21st.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 534
Issue Time: 2006 May 18 1718 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2006 May 18 1717 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Questions of the week: Do solar winds from coronal holes push vortices into the lower atmosphere aiding tropical storm formation? Watch this week to see if any new tropical systems form for clues.

Since there has been a recent flurry of major volcanic activity, will the recent geomagnetic storm trigger bigger or more eruptions?

Recent volcanic activity in the news:
• St. Helen's cooking up a mystery
• Refugees Return to Rumbling Merapi
• Ecuador Volcano Spews Gas Two Miles High
• Another volcano in Kamchatka spouting ash to 6 km above sea level




[edit on 18-5-2006 by Regenmacher]

After a few days of not much earthquake activity:

A prominence erupted from central meridian on Jun 25. The eruption started at 22:21UT. The corresponding CME is not yet seen by LASCO. This CME can introduce active to minor storm conditions in three days. >From tomorrow, a slightly disturbed
geomagnetic field is possible as we enter the fast coronal hole wind
stream. We expect the coronal hole to cause unsettled conditions, active
periods are possible.
Source: SIDC

Then on June 27:

The Corotating Interaction Region preceding the fast coronal
wind stream did arrive this morning, Jun 27. We expect unsettled
conditions, with possible active periods. The CME corresponding to the
prominence eruption of late Jun 25 was captured by CACTus. The CME was
rather slow (200 km/s) and was mainly SW-directed. We don't expect any
disturbance. Sunspot group 59 (NOAA AR 0897) comes more into view. The
group shows mixed magnetic polarity. We estimated a probability of
10-20% for a C-flare.
Source: SIDC

At the same time, today, we experienced an increase in quakes, so far:

5.0 SOUTHERN PERU
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.8 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.4 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.7 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
6.2 FIJI REGION
6.2 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
5.5 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
USGS updates

M2.5 flare: A cornal mass ejection erupted and was in geoffective postion on July 6th. The effects are likely to be felt between the 8th through the 10th. Proton flux rose in correlation also.


larger image here

Data for: M2.5 2006/07/06 08:36:00

Today the 5th tropical system has recently formed in the western Pacific.
Tropical Depression 05W: www.npmoc.navy.mil...