Severe Geomagnetic Storm Research Project:

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posted on Aug, 20 2006 @ 06:52 AM
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A coronal mass ejection hit Earth at 12:30 EDT on the 18th of August, but it appeared there would be no effect. Now the geomagnetic field is at K-6 storm levels, a rather unusual delay.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 245
Issue Time: 2006 Aug 20 0532 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2006 Aug 20 0530 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: No
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate




posted on Aug, 21 2006 @ 12:29 AM
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Backward Sunspot NASA
"We've been waiting for this," says David Hathaway, a solar physicist at the Marshall Space Flight in Huntsville, Alabama. "A backward sunspot is a sign that the next solar cycle is beginning."

This tiny spot of backwardness matters because of what it might foretell: A really big solar cycle.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


A Backward Sunspot Near The End Of Solar Cycle 23 spacedaily.com

Sun's Next Stormy Cycle Starts space.com



posted on Sep, 29 2006 @ 10:18 AM
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Solar flares will disrupt GPS in 2011
When solar activity peaks in 2011 and 2012, it could cause widespread disruption to aircraft navigation and emergency location systems that rely heavily on satellite navigation data.

Discovering the disruption was surprising. "[Other] people will be surprised at the next solar maximum," Kintner says. Both the number and intensity of radio flares will increase and could drown out GPS signals during this period, he says.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


NASA plans sun-watching sentinels
Satellite constellation would monitor space weather like never before

"NASA needs reliable forecasts of space weather," said David Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. "The problem is, scientists are still learning to make these forecasts. It's often said that space weather forecasting is 50 years behind Earth-weather forecasting. We need to catch up."

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


3 new sunspots have made an appearance this week, 10912, 10913 and 10914.



posted on Nov, 11 2006 @ 04:52 PM
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Solar flares to disrupt GPS for several hours in 2011 or 2012

According to new Cornell University research, solar flares negatively affect GPS devices, based on observations of stellar phenomena in September of last year. In 2011 or 2012, when the sun reaches its next solar maximum, scientists expect it to cause a 90 percent GPS signal drop for several hours. While most of us will walk around, oblivious to these space fireworks, Alessandro Cerruti , a Cornell graduate student who studies solar flare effects, envisions this horrific day as a "nightmare situation," given that all planes will likely have GPS signaling by that time. However, given these harbingers of doom, Dr. Paul Kinter, Cerruti's advisor, has a brilliant solution: "I think the best remedy is to be aware of the problem and operate GPS systems with the knowledge that they may fail during a solar flare."

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


The solar minimum is still predicted for March or April of 2007, only four to five months away. Meanwhile, sunspot 10923 has a huge penumbra and is moving into geoeffective position. M-class flares are possible.

[edit on 11-11-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Dec, 7 2006 @ 12:19 PM
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Incoming: Double X-class solar flares.
An X9-flare on Dec. 5th and an X6-flare on Dec. 6th.



2006/12/05 10:35:00 X9.0
2006/12/06 18:47:00 X6.5

Sunspot 930 is a complex magnetic region capable of producing more major flares. The X9.0 is currently producing geomagnetic storms levels along with a rising proton flux. The X6.5 will compound geomagnetic storm levels and should impact Earth by the 8th with severe storm intervals thru the 9th.




Solar flares may damage comsat links UPI

MOSCOW, Dec. 7 (UPI) -- Russian scientists warned Wednesday that U.S. and other satellites could be damaged by a new wave of intense solar flares.

Russia's geophysical forecast center said in a statement reported by the RIA Novosti news agency that it predicted "powerful solar flares, vast explosions in the sun's atmosphere around sunspots, to occur in the near future."

"An X9 solar flare was registered last Tuesday. Over 30 years of regular X-ray observations of the sun, only about 25 powerful flares have been registered, and they had never previously been observed in the solar minimum [the lowest point of the sun's 11-year activity cycle]. This is surprising, because normally such flares occur at the peak of the sun's activity," the center said according to the RIA Novosti report.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


RADIATION STORM: spaceweather.com

A radiation storm is underway. Based on the energy and number of solar protons streaming past Earth, NOAA ranks the storm as category S3: satellites may experience unexpected reboots and astronauts should practice "radiation avoidance."

The rush of protons may be a sign of an approaching CME (coronal mass ejection). Protons are accelerated in shock waves at the leading-edge of CMEs, so when the proton count rises, we can guess that a CME is near. Northern sky watchers should remain alert for auroras, which could flare up if and when the cloud arrives.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3 NOAA SEC
Serial Number: 21
Issue Time: 2006 Dec 07 1600 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2006 Dec 07 1540 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


[edit on 7-12-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Dec, 13 2006 @ 05:30 AM
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X-Class 3.4 Incoming

On the 13th at 0222 UTC, Sunspot 10930 unleashed a major geoeffective X3.4/4B proton flare with Strong type II/IV radio bursts. This CME will arrive sometime after 0600 UTC on December 14th and will cause severe geomagnetic storm conditions for 24-36 hours after impact. In the past few days, there has been 3 X, 4 M, and 27 C-class flares in a solar minimum, which is highly unusual.

Current Space Weather Indices
Geomagnetic Storms: G1
Solar Radiation Storms: S2
Radio Blackouts: R3

2006/12/13 02:40:00 X-3.4 solar flare
Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory

Astronauts take shelter from violent solar storm Florida Today

Solar Radiation Storm Smacks Satellites Space.com


Approximate Flare Start : 13-12-2006 0222 UT
Approximate Flare Maximum: 13-12-2006 0238 UT at Flux X 3.4
Approximate Flare End : 13-12-2006 0442 UT
LOCATION OF HF FADEOUT: Western Australia/Eastern Australia/Northern Australia/New Zealand/SE Asia/China/Indian Ocean/Micronesia/Polynesia/
source


Typhoon Utor is approaching Hainan Island, China and is forecasted to disperse before landfall. Since this X-flare was facing SE Asia at the time of eruption, it will be interesting to see if gravity waves, proton fluence and magnetic anomalies from the CME will have a dramatic effect the tropical storm's intensity and track.


Key Space Weather Secret Revealed space.com

The new study shows that the Northern Lights, also called aurora, and other space weather near Earth are driven by the rate at which the Earth’s and Sun’s magnetic fields connect, or merge, and not just by the solar wind’s electric field.

The merging occurs way out in space, at a spot between the Earth and Sun, roughly 40,000 miles above our planet’s surface. Researchers have now developed a formula that describes the merging rate of the magnetic field lines and accurately predicts 10 different types of near-Earth space weather activity, such as the aurora and magnetic disturbances.

“Having this formula is a big step forward for understanding how the Sun and Earth interact,” said study leader Patrick Newell of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL).

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


New solar data site: Solarcycle24




[edit on 13-12-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Dec, 13 2006 @ 07:12 PM
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New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth space.com

"We're looking for very strong, severe geomagnetic storming" to begin probably around mid-day Thursday, Joe Kunches, Lead Forecaster at the NOAA Space Environment Center, told SPACE.com this afternoon.

Kunches and his team are advising satellite operators and power grid managers to keep an eye on their systems. In the past, CMEs have knocked out satellites and tripped terrestrial power grids. Engineers have learned to limit switching at electricity transfer stations, and satellite operators sometimes reduce operations or make back-up plans in case a craft is damaged.

Another aspect of a CME involves protons that get pushed along by the shock wave. Sometimes these protons break through Earth's protective magnetic field and flood the outer reaches of the atmosphere—where the space station orbits—with radiation. The science of it all is a gray area, Kunches said. But the best guess now is that there will only be a slight increase in proton activity. That's good news for the astronauts.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #06- 4
2006 December 13 at 8:02 a.m. MST (2006 December 13 1502 UTC)

**** ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT FLARE ****

NOAA sunspot Region 930 produced a category R3 (Strong) radio blackout with an associated S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm at 0240 UTC, 13 December (9:40 P.M. EST, 12 December). The SOHO/LASCO instrument also observed a powerful and fast Earth directed coronal mass ejection with this activity. As a result of this activity, a significant geomagnetic storm is expected to impact the Earth approximately 1800 UTC, 14 December (1:00 P.M. EST). NOAA sunspot Region 930 yielded a strong R3 radio blackout and a strong S3 solar radiation storm on 05 December. This region has been unproductive over the past five days. The active region is now a large sunspot cluster which is still rotating across the visible disk. Because of the current position of Region 930, further activity has greater potential to promptly impact Earth.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Suspect this geomagnetic storm will be causing some electrical havoc.

[edit on 13-12-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Dec, 14 2006 @ 07:03 AM
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X3.4 from region 10930.

Typhoon Utor was at a Cat 2 intensity when the X3.4 ejected.
24 hours later typhoon Utor is all but completely gone.

The forecast was:
130230Z MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
140230Z MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

The reality at:
140230Z MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT



UPDATE, solar shock wave hits:





CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
CME shockwave started: 14 Dec 2006 1356 UTC




[edit on 14-12-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Dec, 14 2006 @ 05:25 PM
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X-Class Flare: 2006/12/14 22:14:00 X1.5

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2006 Dec 14 2209 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1277 km/s

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2006 Dec 14 2220 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2006 Dec 14 2255 UTC

Geomagnetic Storms: G3
Solar Radiation Storms: S2
Radio Blackouts: R3

sec.noaa.gov...

Proton flux is currently on the rise again, so this will be another geoeffective CME causing severe geomagnetic storm levels on the 16th.



posted on Feb, 9 2007 @ 05:48 PM
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Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle Physorg
Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle NASA

Since we've all been on a solar sabatical due to geomagnetic inactivity, I was catching up on some offstream reading and found a couple of sites that you all might enjoy in regards to the next solar cycle.

Apocalypse 2012: A Scientific Investigation Into Civilization's End


1. Ancient Mayan prophecies based on two millennia of meticulous astronomical observations indicate that 12/21/12 will mark the birth of a new age, accompanied, as all births are, by blood and agony as well as hope and promise.
2. Since the 1940’s, and particularly, since 2003, the Sun has behaved more tumultuously than any time since the rapid global warming that accompanied the melting of the last Ice Age. Solar physicists concur that solar activity will next peak, at record-setting levels, in 2012.
3. Storms on the Sun are related to storms on the Earth. The great wave of 2005 hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma coincided with one of the stormiest weeks in the recorded history of the Sun.
4. The Earth’s magnetic field, our primary defense against harmful solar radiation, has begun to dwindle, with cracks comparable in scale to the ozone hole opening up randomly. A pole shift, in which such protection falls nearly to zero as the North and South magnetic poles reverse position, may well be under way.
5. Russian geophysicists believe that the Solar System has entered an interstellar energy cloud. This cloud is energizing and destabilizing the Sun and all the planets’ atmospheres. Their predictions for catastrophe resulting from the Earth’s encounter with this energy cloud range from 2010 to 2020.
6. Berkeley physicists, who discovered that the dinosaurs and 70% of all other species on Earth were extinguished by an impact 65 million years ago, maintain, with 99% certainty, that we are now overdue for another such mega-catastrophe.
7. The Yellowstone supervolcano, which erupts catastrophically every 600,000 to 700,000 years, is preparing to blow. The most recent eruption of comparable magnitude, at Lake Toba, Indonesia, 74,000 years ago, led to the death of more than 90% of the world’s population at the time.
8. Eastern philosophies such the I Ching, Chinese book of changes, and also Hindu theology, have been plausibly interpreted as supporting the 2012 end date, as have a range of indigenous belief systems.
9. At least one scholarly interpretation of the Bible predicts that the Earth will be annihilated in 2012. The burgeoning Armageddonist movement of Muslims, Christians and Jews actively seeks to precipitate the final End-Times battle.
10. Have a nice day.



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Current Solar Activity

Looks like we have pretty much reached the bottom of this solar cycle, and the smoothed sunspot number is predicted to be 10.9 for March 2007, with an 11 for the month and April. See SEC report

Coming up for Valentine's Day: Unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are possible on February 14-15 due to the coronal hole #257 being in a geoeffective position.



posted on Feb, 18 2007 @ 07:54 AM
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The Themis (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) mission has successfully launched and will be a boon for geomagnetic data and study.




Taking multitasking to new heights, NASA launched the five THEMIS satellites aboard a single Delta II rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida at 6:01 p.m. EST. Racing into space on the flaming power of three rocket stages and nine solid rocket motors, the THEMIS satellites will soon disperse around Earth to monitor auroras like the Northern Lights.

NASA is undertaking the mission to investigate what causes auroras in the Earth's atmosphere to change in appearance and dissipate. Discovering why the light of auroras can fluctuate and fade will provide scientists with important details on how the planet's protective magnetosphere works and on the sun-Earth connection.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Themis Wikipedia



posted on Mar, 23 2007 @ 04:22 AM
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Hinode sees the dynamic and violent sun as sharply as never before

Hinode, the newest solar observatory on the space scene, has obtained never-before-seen images showing that the sun's magnetic field is much more turbulent and dynamic than previously known.

Hinode, Japanese for 'sunrise', was launched on 23 September 2006 to study the sun's magnetic field and how its explosive energy propagates through the different layers of the solar atmosphere.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


SOLAR CINEMA: Astronomers are calling Japan's Hinode spacecraft a "Hubble for the sun." Watch this movie and you'll see why


Click on the image to view a 2.8 MB movie.


On Dec. 13, 2006, Hinode caught sunspot 930 in the act of exploding. The eruption produced an X3-class solar flare, a billion-ton coronal mass ejection, and spectacular auroras on Earth. Now, with a high-resolution movie to study, astronomers can see what caused the explosion: Two sunspots of opposite magnetic polarity bumped together. Boom!

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


The sun is currently spotless and the solar flux is low (72). Coronal hole CH261 may cause some minor geomagnetic storm levels from march 24-27, otherwise it will be rather calm during this solar minimum.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Mar 2007



posted on Mar, 25 2007 @ 12:21 PM
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According to the Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium Royal Observatory of Belgium on March 24, 2007 the solar wind had strengthened and the geomagnetic activity was expected to be high.

It all started on March 21, 2007 when

an active region had already begun to come into view on the edge of the Sun in the ultraviolet images from SOHO



Flaring activity is expected to remain low. The solar wind is
strengthening since yesterday morning due to the influence of a coronal
hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has turned
southward and is currently at -15nT. As a consequence geomagnetic
activcity is expected to be high with isolated minor storm episodes.
This message was sent out earlier than ussual due to an upgrade of the
network at SIDC later today.


And although the total magnetic field strenght has decreased today, we had a minor storm yesterday and we expect unsettled conditions with sporadic active conditions.

All this has been mentioned in order to point out the strong earthquakes we had today, Vanuatu & Japan.

7.2 Vanuatu

6.7 Near the West Coast of Honshu, Japan

Linked or not to the solar activity, it is in fact interesting to see that most part of the quakes we had during the last year were close to a solar increase of activity, wind speed and/or geomagnetic storm.



posted on Apr, 2 2007 @ 12:28 PM
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According to the Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium - Royal Observatory of Belgium] we were


under a fast solar wind flow from a low-latitude coronal hole. Furthermore, we expect active geomagnetic conditions.


Related or not with the strong earthquakes and the tsunamis of the SOLOMON ISLANDS, I thought it was important to mention.

Solomon Islands, magnitude 8.0

Tsunami thread




[edit on 2-4-2007 by Ptolomeo]

[edit on 2-4-2007 by Ptolomeo]



posted on Apr, 2 2007 @ 12:34 PM
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I have tried to add an external image, but as I have been unable, I try with this post.

This is how the sun was on April, the 1st. Please, click on:



[edit on 2-4-2007 by Ptolomeo]



posted on Apr, 3 2007 @ 12:24 PM
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Following several days of strong earthquakes in different places, tsunamis, heavy rains, volcano eruptions, etc., I have been able to find the following information:



MAGNETIC STORM: For the past several days, a solar wind stream has been buffeting Earth's magnetic field, causing it to shake. The shaking was so severe in Scandinavia last night, compass needles shifted "more than two degrees," reports Jan Lameer."There must have been a lot of electricity flowing through the upper atmosphere!"




Solar activity is quiet and is expected to remain so. The
Earth is currently inside the fast solar wind stream. The interplanetary
magnetic field, however, has decreased down to average values (around 5
nT), so we do not expect a significant geomagnetic disturbance.


Sources:
Spaceweather
sidc.be..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> Royal Observatory Belgium

This means that there was a solar and geomagnetic influence...



posted on Apr, 3 2007 @ 02:41 PM
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The activity is high now. According to POES, the current activity level is 8. It has been at level 10 for a while. I'm not sure if it's falling, but it's still high.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

[edit on 2007/4/3 by Hellmutt]



posted on Apr, 28 2007 @ 12:58 PM
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According to the Royal Observatory of Belgium :



Solar activity should be moderate during the next 48 hours, with C-class flare activity expected, and a small chance of M-class flare.

The source of this activity is NOAA AR 0953 which produced 3
B-class flares, greater than B5 on April 27.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be active during the next 48 hours,
with possibilities of isolated minor storm conditions. The Earth entered
sooner than expected a fast solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Kp
indices show that active conditions were observed around 16UT on April
27 and minor storm conditions at 0UT, on April 28. Note that only an
isolated active condition period (K=4) was observed at Dourbes.


Will monitor all the other events in order to see an increase of activity possibly caused by this event. Even though, we should not forget that NOAA AR 0953 emerged a few days ago and that earthquakes, volcanoes and storms have been more active...

Will keep an eye on it.



posted on Apr, 29 2007 @ 12:34 PM
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Natural events:
Earthquake
6.2 Andreanof Islands - Alaska
USGS


Solar events:

Mild geomagnetic storm & Active Sunspot NOAA AR 953
Source: Spaceweather

Auroras & High solar Wind Stream (about 620 km./s).
Source: Royal Observatory Belgium.



posted on Apr, 30 2007 @ 05:14 PM
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Another important natural event today:

Mt. Etna´s eruption

According to Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanología Mount Etna has erupted again on April 29, 2007 Report - pdf (in Italian)

After an increase of seismic activity, a strong eruption started at the South-East Crater with emission of lava and ash plumes - because of the weak wind - ash plumes rose to high altitudes...





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