Came across this lengthy article with a video based on a report issued by the National Academy of Sciences.
Space storm alert: 90 seconds
from catastrophe New Scientist - 23 March 2009
IT IS midnight on 22 September 2012 and the skies above Manhattan are filled with a flickering curtain of colourful light. Few New Yorkers have
seen the aurora this far south but their fascination is short-lived. Within a few seconds, electric bulbs dim and flicker, then become unusually
bright for a fleeting moment. Then all the lights in the state go out. Within 90 seconds, the entire eastern half of the US is without power.
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NASA did a 180º forecast and now we shall have a below average cycle.
New Solar Cycle Prediction NASA
 May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar
Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
Please visit the link provided for the complete story.
With all that in mind, I still have the feeling were are but chimps throwing darts in regards to long range solar weather forecasting.
[edit on 30-5-2009 by Regenmacher]
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Are Sunspots Disappearing? NASA
September 3, 2009: The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Weeks and sometimes whole months go by without even
a single tiny sunspot. The quiet has dragged out for more than two years, prompting some observers to wonder, are sunspots disappearing?
"Sunspot magnetic fields are dropping by about 50 gauss per year," says Penn. "If we extrapolate this trend into the future, sunspots could
completely vanish around the year 2015." Please visit the link provided for the complete story.
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Long range forecasting based on a solar anomaly and mixed in with arctic temps at 2000 year highs is like rolling dice, and your guess is as good as
mine Sofi. I have noticed the seasons seem to be arriving later and later in the last few years and was surprised to see tornadic activity in the
Northern US in late summer this year. Abnormal weather patterns begat abnormal weather is about all I can say with confidence.
Some speculate a mini-ice age is coming, although I would say we need a large volcanic Toba
type eruption to make that viable.
Another Little Ice Age? Solar activity
and climate change ArsTechnica
Over the weekend, a paper published in the American Geophysical Union's journal Eos attracted a lot of attention, as it suggested that the
levels of magnetic activity associated with recent sunspots indicated that the sun might be returning to a state of low activity, similar to that of
the Maunder Minimum, which occurred in the late 17th century. That change in solar activity was notable for setting off what's called the Little Ice
Age, which plunged Europe into a deep chill. Left undiscussed is what that might mean in a world where greenhouse gas changes are threatening a period
of extended high temperatures. Please visit the link provided for the complete story.
We are trying to get a grip on forecasting it though.
How Sunlight Controls Climate Scientific American
New computer models begin to suggest how changes in the sun's strength might change weather patterns
Small changes in the sun's brightness can have big impacts on our planet's weather and climate. And now scientists have detailed how that
process might work, according to a new study published August 28 in Science (pdf
file).
For decades some scientists have noted that certain climate phenomena—warmer seas, increased tropical rainfall, fewer clouds in the subtropics,
stronger trade winds—seem to be connected to the sun's roughly 11-year cycle, which causes ebbs and flows in sunspots that result in variations in
solar output. Please visit the link provided for the complete story.
[edit on 9-9-2009 by Regenmacher]
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Not much to report other than Sun seems slightly more active in October than it has been for months, so this could be a considered a sign the doldrums
are finally ending.
Sluggish flow inside the sun may cause late sunspot cycle SPIE
Sonograms of the solar interior reveal a flow that is taking longer than usual to move from the poles to the equator and may be related to the
current long minimum of solar activity.
We do not know why the torsional oscillation is slowly migrating. We also monitor the north-south meridional flow and the differential rotation, but
neither is significantly different between the two cycles. The meridional flow is thought to play an important role in determining the timing and
amplitude of the solar-activity cycle,15 but at a depth far below what we can presently sample reliably.
Thus, several mysteries remain in our quest to unravel the cause of the solar cycle. Because of our analysis technique, the flows in Figure 1 are
precisely symmetric across the equator, but the sun shows significant differences between the northern and southern hemispheres that may play a role
in the cycle behavior. These differences can be studied using other helioseismological methods, such as ring diagrams16 and time distance.17 In
addition, we are developing methods to search for the deep meridional flow that should exist about 200,000km below the surface. These techniques will
enable us to learn more about the roots of the sunspot cycle.
Examiner
It seems that 2009 is sure to pass 1954 and 1933 to move into 4th place for sunspot-free days since 1900. Both of these years had about 240
sunspot-free days. Last year achieved 2nd place with 266 blank days,; as of Nov 2, 2009 we stand at 235 days. Given the number of days left in 2009,
there’s still about an even money chance for 2009 to at least tie 2008.
[edit on 4-11-2009 by Regenmacher]
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