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Originally posted by AlexofSkye
The only context in which it makes sense for the Chinese government to protest Australia's defence arrangements, is that they want to ensure they have a free hand to carry out armed aggression against its neighbours, especially Taiwan.
Putting Taiwan away to one side there is no sane reason why China would start a war in the region.
Originally posted by AlexofSkye
xpert11, just curious why you think it would be sane for them to start a war over Taiwan but insane otherwise.
Originally posted by Phoenix
The only context this makes sense in is the stability required by China to invade Taiwan.
A successful missile defence removes Chinas ability to pre-empt or counterstrike US bases in Japan, Guam and attack US carrier surface battle group(s) without suffering severe consequences.
No Missile Defence,
Lets say the scenario goes something like this; China begins military campaign against Taiwan by using airborne assault, missle bombardment, seaborne assault. Taiwan maintains its defence while Japanese and US air assets out Guam and Japan regain control of the air over Taiwan. Meanwhile a US CBG sails from its position near Japan and arrives near Taiwan after 48 hours.
The Chinese through diplomatic channels send a veiled threat announcing that any more interference with its internal affairs will be met with extreme force. Secretly they had sent the message that they would resort to the stongest weapons in their arsenal to counterattack Japanese and US bases in theatre as well as US west coast bases.
The US President under pressure from an electorate and congress saturated with years of anti-war media coverage following Bush's term in office decides that risk of a wider conflict over Taiwans independence is politically and practically an undoable task since the missile shield defence appropiations were cancelled several years ago leaving the US vulnerable to outright blackmail short of open nuclear war with countries such as China.
The President orders the military to stand down.
I know the above is rather simplistic but I believe something along these lines to be the long term strategy of Chinas military, political and economic actions thought through as an end result.
Re-taking Taiwan would have the effect of serving notice to the rest of Asia and surrounding areas just who is in control and calls the shots, putting a chill on any other countries independent political wishes in the entire region including Australia.
While missile defense systems can hardly be called a mature and reliable defence at this time they do introduce a factor of uncertainty to a belligerant military planners world.
Chinas complaint to the Australians in regard to missile defence/radar on Australian soil says much about their concern with having their strategic deterrent nullified or diminished to such an extent that they lose the ace in hand that prevents the US and others coming to Taiwans aid in a future crisis.
The complaint itself warrants pushing ahead on missile defence in my opinion.
Originally posted by Yazman
Of course, our (the australian) ridiculous government insists on americanising Australia and co-operating with the USA regardless of what happens, when in reality it should be China we co-operate with.