The clock is ticking in Sumatra

The cock in Sumatra is ticking. It is my belief that we are about to witness something historic in this region of the planet. In the past 2 days there have been 8 quakes measuring 6.0 or greater. Four of the 8 quakes have been in Sumatra. Globally there have been 620 quakes over 4.0 in the past 30 days.

Source: www.iris.edu...

If you scroll down that huge list there is something that should be very obvious. Two locations: Northern Sumatera (as they have it listed) and Southern Sumatera. Northern Sumatera has experienced 242 quakes over 4.0 in the past 30 days and Southern Sumatera has experienced 17. So we are talking about 259 quakes over 4.0 in this already pounded region.

There are two things of note in the line from Northern to Southern Sumatra. There is a plate line which may be collapsing. The number and magnitude of quakes in this area since December would indicate this to be possible. A plate collapse could generate a tsunami far greater than the one from December 26, 2004. The other item of interest is what makes a bookend out of Sumatra. You have two very famous volcanos on each end. On the north side you have Toba which was worse than Yellowstone the last time it went off. On the south end you have Krakatoa which exploded in the late 1800's and altered the earth's climate much like Pinatubo did in the early 1990's.

Given that the level of activity in this part of the world following the December 26th has not only NOT decreased but perhaps even increased it raises the very real possibility that a) the plate will collapse or b) that one of the areas volcanos will blow.

How long can this area sustain this kind of activity before something happens? This isn't a case where a large quake hit and you have to deal with the aftershocks for a period of time. This is a case where something broke. You have 1500 feet of land movement in some areas. You have had two historic quakes within miles of each other and barely 3 months apart. It is probably safe to assume that Northern Sumatra has experience 500+ quakes of 4.0 or greater since December 26th. And the strength of the quakes has just stepped up in the past few days. Are the plates doing the work and is one getting ready to collapse or are we about to experience an overdue supervolcanic eruption?

Your thoughts? And sorry if I posted this in the wrong area.

The clock is most definitely ticking in Sumatra and I think Toba might be waking up soon. So many large earthquakes in that area, something is happening under there and one of those will soon trigger the wake up call to Toba.

You've been finding alot of good info and articles on these supervolcanoes Indy, I think you already know the answer as to what will happen.

[edit on 4-11-2005 by worldwatcher]

found tons of info here

earthquake.usgs.gov...

has regional as well as world.

Looks like it is not just limited to the one area alone. The world map shows 172 in one week alone for the world. I am sure that number gets updated very often.

I'veb een thinking the exact same thing. There has been a higher amount os seismic activity than usual in the last 3-4 months around sumatra, mostly concentrated towards the north of the island. I believe the caledra that is Lake Toba may soon erupt, if it does, we're screwed... coz it will be big...

I would like to think its just Krakatoa in the south, which, although is big, is not a super vocalno as such... Unfortunately Krakatoa eruped in 1883 and then in 530AD previous to that, so its not due for another eruption for quite some time (the island that is the volcano had barely emerged from the water)... so if its not going to be Krakatoa, its likely to be Toba... bad news guys...

Yes, I agree that this area is very unstable. Major Ed Dames on Saturday predicted on Art Bell's show that Mt. Tarawera volcano, in New Zealand's North Island, is going to erupt by November or December this year. He did say it was going to take many lives.

I hope he is wrong, but perhaps if he is right, again, this warning might help some people be prepared.

I am not sure about his prediction but he has been right in most of the predictions he has made.

---Edited for errors---

[edit on 11-4-2005 by Muaddib]

Volcano on Indonesia's Sumatra Erupts

A volcano on Indonesia's Sumatra Island erupted Tuesday, spewing out clouds of ash and causing villages on its slopes to flee their homes in panic, government volcanologists said.

Mount Talang's eruption was likely triggered by a series of earthquakes that have rocked Sumatra in recent weeks

Talang began rumbling shortly before dawn Tuesday, and then spewed out ash up to 1,640 feet into the air.

This absolutely appears to be the case, indeed. I found it ironic that a thread was opened regarding Japans 6.1, and the days of quakes continue in Sumatra.

6.0 30.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
4.8 30.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 30.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.2 30.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.3 30.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.9 30.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.5 30.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
6.3 30.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.8 30.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
6.8 30.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.3

This, for example, is yesterday alone. And this has been the average since the last staggering 8.7 Magnitude on March 28. It can how difficult it must be for them.

Originally posted by Muaddib
Yes, I agree that this area is very unstable. Major Ed Dames on Saturday predicted on Art Bell's show that Mt. Tarawera volcano, in New Zealand's North Island, is going to erupt by November or December this year. He did say it was going to take many lives.

---Edited for errors---

[edit on 11-4-2005 by Muaddib]

Ummm Muadib not sure if your aware but New Zealand isnt anywhere near Sumatra... just making sure you hadnt gotten your wires crossed... But there is a supervolcano called mt Taupo in NZ which is apparantly overdue to erupt... but there hasnt been too much seismic activity there recently so i dont think its an immediate cause of concern.

My major concern is still Lake Toba's caldera... as it is in Sumatra and overdue to erupt i would be keeping my eyes and ears open.

I hope this is just a case of this area moving towards a sort of equilibrium after the major quake of December 26th. It is frightening to realize though, the extent this plate or plates shifted that day and it makes one wonder what else could be in store. Could the activity of that day show that an eruption of Toba might not be that far away? Have these plates moved in such a way that more devestaing earth quakes can, and probably will, happen? Lets face it, this area of the world has always been highly active, geologically speaking, and I'm sure this activity will continue. Lets just hope that these changes are mild enough that the peoples of this area can start to cope.

Originally posted by specialasianX

Ummm Muadib not sure if your aware but New Zealand isnt anywhere near Sumatra... just making sure you hadnt gotten your wires crossed... But there is a supervolcano called mt Taupo in NZ which is apparantly overdue to erupt... but there hasnt been too much seismic activity there recently so i dont think its an immediate cause of concern.

My major concern is still Lake Toba's caldera... as it is in Sumatra and overdue to erupt i would be keeping my eyes and ears open.

New Zealands is close to the area of Sumatra.... i think you are the one a bit confused. The SE area of Asia is north from Australia and New Zealand, not that far off. Well, Sumatra is northwest from New Zealand, north from Australia.




[edit on 12-4-2005 by Muaddib]

Just so you know.. I pulled up a map online and checked out NZ. And just so you know it is only 3 inches from Sumatra But seriously its all the way on the other side of AU. Not sure if I'd call it close or not. Its several thousand miles away.

Originally posted by Indy
Just so you know.. I pulled up a map online and checked out NZ. And just so you know it is only 3 inches from Sumatra

But seriously its all the way on the other side of AU. Not sure if I'd call it close or not. Its several thousand miles away.

Well, yes, you are right, there is a difference of several thousand miles between the opposite ends of Australia/New Zealand, and Sumatra, but they both share the same tectonic plate. And...according to some new studies, it seems this plate is breaking up....and that is not good news.

Study: Break-up of the Indo-Australian tectonic plate
Thursday 27 January 2005


Australian and American researchers investigating forces exerted on the Indo-Australian tectonic plate have discovered that the considerable stresses being exerted on the plate could be leading to its breaking up.

ARC Professorial Fellow, Mike Sandiford, from the University of Melbourne’s School of Earth Sciences was recently awarded ARC funding for research aimed at understanding the forces that drive the motion of the Earth’s tectonic plates and the distribution of stresses in the Earth’s crust that give rise to great earthquakes such as the magnitude 9 Boxing Day Sumatran quake.

Professor Sandiford says the research shows that as much as 10 per cent of the huge amounts of energy being created at plate connection points at Sumatra and Java are being transferred back into our plate and causing major stresses.

“This is enough stress to contribute to mild earthquake activity in the central regions of the plate, such as in the Australian continent or central Indian Ocean, and provides us with clues as to why our plate has been slowly breaking up,” he says.

“The Indian Ocean quakes are, in effect, leading to the active rupture of the Indo-Australian plate into separate Indian and Australian plates. This new research provides us with important information about the stresses that are driving this drawn out tectonic plate divorce.”

Excerpted from.
uninews.unimelb.edu.au...

---edited for errors---


[edit on 12-4-2005 by Muaddib]

[edit on 12-4-2005 by Muaddib]

Yeah Muadib i can see how it can confuse coz we are on the same plate... but i was born in Malaysia, east of sumatra... i now live in Sydney, west of New zealand... Between Malaysia and Sydney is an 8 hour flight... long distance... Sumatra is NW of Aust and waaaayyyy NW of NZ.

But yeh i also have heard the plate that i live on is breaking apart, which, even though Australia isnt on the fault lines, is scary coz there may be a new fault line created anywhere in the plate where the rift occurs. This Particular fault hasnt been so active since pre 1883 when Krakatoa last had a major explosion... but this activity seems to be more northward... hopefully its not Toba, but a smaller one... also i can see Hellmutt has kindly notified us of an eruption on sumatra recently, could be the beginning

Does anyone have access to seismograph readings from around Toba? I can't find one close enough. Closest one I could find was showing the quake yesterday from Northern Sumatra. It also contained what looked to be harmonic tremors. But I have no idea where it might be picking them up from. Who can help on this?

The only seismic reading site that i know of and that you probably have is found in this link.

BTW....look at what all the readings show at this moment.

aslwww.cr.usgs.gov...

quote]Originally posted by Hellmutt

Volcano on Indonesia's Sumatra Erupts

A volcano on Indonesia's Sumatra Island erupted Tuesday, spewing out clouds of ash and causing villages on its slopes to flee their homes in panic, government volcanologists said.

Mount Talang's eruption was likely triggered by a series of earthquakes that have rocked Sumatra in recent weeks

Talang began rumbling shortly before dawn Tuesday, and then spewed out ash up to 1,640 feet into the air.

Did anyone else watch the Discovery Yellowstone Movie? What if Mt. Talang is just the start in series of chain reactions, Indonesia has lots of other smaller volcanoes. But then again maybe Talang is a savior and is taking some of the pressure off of Toba? What do you think? More to come? or will quiet down a bit now?

btw if anyone has pics of the erupting Talang, I would like to see them.

After watching the movie on the super volcano in our own soil, I tell you I always knew that the area of the national park was thermal but I never before really sat down and figure out what was the big deal.

The movie opened my eyes.

Our earth is a living word and ever changing, taking away the "doomsday" prophecies, we actually had not witnessed yet our earth doing its "natural thing" in our human earth life in a few centuries.

We are definitely due for some earth changes and we can now see it first hand with all the movements in Sumatra.

Interesting data Muaddib, but is anything that the scientist has found about all the movement?

The people in those islands should be move to safer grounds.

I have the feeling that either is new land emerging or a new volcano is about to surface.

Anybody has any latest news on scientific research from the area? I bet all eyes in the scientific comunity are focus in that region.

I know everybody is getting worried, but as skychief has touched upon this is more of the case of the plates requilibrating themselves after the major earthquake on the 26th.

One major point which I think needs to be noted is that Plates don't "collapse".

The Australian plate is subducting at a rate of 6.7cm per year, and this is very fast in geological terms, and this very high rate is the reason why we are seeing so many earthquakes in this region. It is not a sign that something "big" is going to happen, to the contary, having lots of these smaller quakes is better then having none at all as it reduces stress on the other faults in the region.

Originally posted by Rock Hunter
One major point which I think needs to be noted is that Plates don't "collapse".

It is not a sign that something "big" is going to happen, to the contary, having lots of these smaller quakes is better then having none at all as it reduces stress on the other faults in the region.

I can follow your thinking, but unfortunately I think you`re wrong about this. This time having lots of quakes is not good and does not reduce stress. This is a collapse and we might have just seen the start of this...
ATS: An Earth Plate Is Breaking in Two

I certainly wouldn't be surprised if this does evolve into a geologic cataclysm the likes of which we've never seen in historical times.