Light Curve Analysis gives Evidence that Oumuamua was Disc Shaped not Cigar Shaped

Recently there was a discussion about Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb's assertion that the space object Oumuamua could have been Extraterrestrial in design , artists impressions of a cigar-shaped object were posted and much toilet humour and jocularity ensued but astronomers who have studied the object believe there's a 91 per cent probability that the object was actually Disk shaped ... like this.

Which makes it even harder to explain in nature than the original view that it was cigar-shaped.

We present the first attempt to fit the light curve of the interstellar visitor ‘Oumuamua using a physical model that includes optional torque. We consider both conventional (Lommel–Seeliger triaxial ellipsoid) and alternative (‘black-and-white ball’, ‘solar sail’) brightness models. With all the brightness models, some torque is required to explain the timings of the most conspicuous features – deep minima – of the asteroid’s light curve. Our best-fitting models are a thin disc (aspect ratio 1:6) and a thin cigar (aspect ratio 1:8) that are very close to being axially symmetric. Both models are tumbling and require some torque that has the same amplitude in relation to ‘Oumuamua’s linear non-gravitational acceleration as in Solar system comets whose dynamics is affected by outgassing. Assuming random orientation of the angular momentum vector, we compute probabilities for our best-fitting models.We show that cigar-shaped models suffer from a fine-tuning problem and have only 16 per cent probability to produce light-curve minima as deep as the ones present in ‘Oumuamua’s light curve. Disc-shaped models, on the other hand, are very likely (at 91 per cent) to produce minima of the required depth. From our analysis, the most likely model for ‘Oumuamua is a thin disc (slab) experiencing moderate torque from outgassing.
academic.oup.com...

It also makes it easier to see why astrophysicist Loeb is proposing an Extraterrestrial origin for the object , whether it's a relic from an ancient space battle far far away or a Solar sail sent to check out who's making all that noise the oddities of Oumuamua single it out for special consideration.

The truth is out there , sadly heading away from our Planet.

I believe there is now enough circumstancial and physical evidence to opine on the nature of this object.

I believe this object could very well be an advanced probe. The acceleration as it was leaving the sun's gravity well is another aspect of this that can't be ignored.

It could very well have been a scout and I worry it may have been a herald.

a reply to: projectvxn

What bothers me is given the maturity of our endeavours in space we weren't in a position to send something out to check this curious object out , we may have missed an opportunity to snag ourselves some sweet Alien tech or at least answer the big question.

a reply to: gortex

Agreed. We really need to create a global space agency that can represent the planet and fund it well.

I think it's that important.

a reply to: gortex

I don't generally watch videos. If it's a disc, is it supposed to be rotating around its short axis or around a radial axis?

If the former it could be to provide artificial gravity to those inside.

a reply to: gortex

Calling it disk or cigar shaped is misleading.

All those studies can say is that it is either elongated 1:8 ratio or flattened 1:6 ratio. They can not make any statements about the actual shape just the aspect ratios.

I find a flattened object with a 1:6 ratio much less puzzling than a elongated object with a 1:8 ratio. Neither are impossible to have formed naturally though.

Besides those studies are also assuming uniform surface properties, which does not have to be the case: academic.oup.com...

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: projectvxn

What bothers me is given the maturity of our endeavours in space we weren't in a position to send something out to check this curious object out , we may have missed an opportunity to snag ourselves some sweet Alien tech or at least answer the big question.

I've polished my tinfoil hat today so...

Is it possible that something along those lines did occur and we are yet (if ever) to find out?

Just a passing thought. But I feel we are ill informed about lots of things these days.

a reply to: Tulpa

I think it's highly unlikely although I'm unsure if there were any "defence satellite" launches between it's detection and flyby.

a reply to: gortex

Great post. Reminds me why I joined this site in the first place.

Not surprised it's heading away now.

Probably reported home "No sign of intelligent life".

a reply to: gortex
I agree, it's unlikely.
I was just wondering.
If there was any possibility at all of getting a closer look at the thing and someone was capable of doing it....
Maybe next time?

If you want to stretch what many believe to be reality, then certain people in the world know exactly what Oumuamua is.
That is because E.T. may have been concerned about what it was as well, investigated it, and then told us. Hey, we might have even asked.

As far fetched as it all sounds, when you consider the thousands of unexplainable phenomena that have happened to people and certainly observed by many millions... I think the conjecture has a reasonable possibility of being true.

Even still.... would "they" ever tell the rest of us?

if it was an Alien ship . wouldn't a good place too look be where it came from?

a reply to: gortex


the 'independent' object entered our System from the direction of Lyra constellation and is leaving our System in the direction of Pegasus constellation

the 'cigar' shape or a 'discus' shape that was displayed is only the result of the angle of the anomaly and our position here on planet Earth while viewing on land based telescopes (i bet the SPY satellites out in space, took a handful of still photos of the 'visitor' and those will never be published to the public)

originally posted by: St Udio
a reply to: gortex


the 'independent' object entered our System from the direction of Lyra constellation and is leaving our System in the direction of Pegasus constellation

the 'cigar' shape or a 'discus' shape that was displayed is only the result of the angle of the anomaly and our position here on planet Earth while viewing on land based telescopes (i bet the SPY satellites out in space, took a handful of still photos of the 'visitor' and those will never be published to the public)

That's a really good point. Many of those "spy" satellites have cams aimed outward and away from earth.

originally posted by: St Udio
a reply to: gortex


the 'independent' object entered our System from the direction of Lyra constellation and is leaving our System in the direction of Pegasus constellation

the 'cigar' shape or a 'discus' shape that was displayed is only the result of the angle of the anomaly and our position here on planet Earth while viewing on land based telescopes (i bet the SPY satellites out in space, took a handful of still photos of the 'visitor' and those will never be published to the public)

This is just one of so many things.

WIth the respect for our public that has been demonstrably shown to us in the last 5 years... Let alone in the last 50 years, We are being treated like bugs on a corpse.

I would consider Mainstream Science to be on the top of that food chain, however we do not know how high it goes.

What we do know is that we are human and need to know the reality of our existence.

It is going to require a drastic change, and I am sure it is going to happen very soon.

Just as a point of interest, the object Ultima Thule // Arrokoth had its shape initially completely wrong as well. It's by no means impossible that the same thing happened here.

en.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: St Udio

Isn't Vega in Lyra?

a reply to: gortex

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar!!

- or -

Goezer, the Traveler!

He will come in one of his pre-chosen forms! During the rectification of the Vuldrini, the Traveler came in the form of a large and moving Torg! Then during the third reconciliation of the last of the McKetrik Supplicants, they chose a new form for him: that of a giant Slor!

Many Shuuvs and Zuhls knew what it meant to be burned in the depths of the Slor that day, I can tell you!

-Vinz Clothar (with the corrective help of IMDb)

But with the burden of six sigma proof it is not unthinkable that an original paper *might* have been wrong. But the other observers after that then said the original interpretation was correct??

I think that I will stay with the Herd on this one!

* chews his cud *

a reply to: NoCorruptionAllowed

Someone took a look. No one is not saying anything except academics.

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: projectvxn

What bothers me is given the maturity of our endeavours in space we weren't in a position to send something out to check this curious object out , we may have missed an opportunity to snag ourselves some sweet Alien tech or at least answer the big question.

And how do you know that we didn't "snag" it? It may very well be sitting in a hangar in Area 51 right now. They may be slowly releasing information about it as a way of gradually readying us for the truth.
And if it is an alien probe it most likely was sent to this solar system because the aliens have already detected our technological signature.

It may have been a sort of alien calling card...but one that we have to be technologically advanced enough to retrieve in order to obtain it...perhaps as a way of gauging whether we're ready for first contact.