Covid-19 facts and data vs misconceptions.

Test positivity percentages are rising regardless of test volume

The claim is often made that case positivity is rising solely due to increased testing. This is demonstrably untrue. Total percentage of positivity is measured, not merely the raw number, against the total number of tests. If positive test results were solely correlated to testing increases, we would not see positivity fractions falling even as tests rise.

See New York, one of the hardest hit states:


Source: coronavirus.1point3acres.com...

As you can see, cases and hospitalizations both fell despite dramatically increased testing over time.

See Florida, a state currently in the midst of a new surge:

(Same source.)

Test positivity rate declined for months despite increased testing, and in fact did not increase back to the percentage it had hit in April until mid June, despite dramatic increases in testing.

We see the same thing nationally. Test positivity:

Source

Until the latest surge, positive results fell despite continuous increases over time in test volume.

Asymptomatic transmission.

Asymptomatic transmission within communities, initially believed to be rare, is now thought to be a primary driver of covid-19 propagation, comprising perhaps more than 40% of all transmission.
Sources: www.medicalnewstoday.com... , www.sciencedaily.com... , www.acpjournals.org...

This asymptomatic transmission means the risk of resurgence following epidemiological curve "crushing," may be as high as 97% within 30 days of lifting social controls (reopening.)
Source: www.nature.com...

Covid-19 has already killed far more people than a typical flu season.

H1N1 killed an estimated 12,469 Americans.
Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

Last year's flu season may have killed as many as 62,000.
Source: www.cdc.gov...

Covid-19 associated deaths in the U.S. alone currently stand at approximately 140,000 since the first known death in early February... a period of just over five months. Covid-19 has killed more than twice as many Americans in five months than the flu did all last year.

This is in addition to deaths attributable to other causes. We know this because

Covid-19 associated deaths are being undercounted, not inflated.

According to the best data we have (no data is perfect,) deaths from all causes - even disregarding covid-19 - increased dramatically in 2020 concurrent with the first surge of cases. (We do not yet know whether a similar increase will follow the second surge currently underway.)


Source: www.cdc.gov...

The chart displays three sets of data. 1) Predicted deaths in the absence of covid-19 (the green/yellow bars.) 2) Predicted deaths factoring in covid-19 associated deaths (the blue bars.) 3) Actual observed death totals (the red crosses.)

No matter how one seeks to account for it, the deaths represented an increase of 31% - 41% in excess deaths during the height of that initial surge. The deaths occurred, regardless of cause, and this is not in dispute. So either one accepts that covid-19 caused this spike in deaths, or one must posit some other novel cause of death increase, serendipitously coinciding with the pandemic surge.
(Continued...)

People are not generally being falsely counted as covid-19 deaths

An oft repeated assertion is that deaths being attributed to covid-19 are actually deaths secondary to other causes, or are being fabricated without evidence. In addition to the above chart effectively refuting that claim (as it counts deaths due to all causes, not just covid-19, and clearly demonstrates a spike coincident with the virus cases surging,) we can also simply look at what the criteria are for "suspected" (non-confirmed) covid-19 deaths.

As empirical observations of confirmed covid-19 patients evolve and improve, so too does the refinement, specificity, and sensitivity of our clinical "suspicion" criteria for the presence of covid-19. There is an increasingly specific set of etiological factors considered, including:

Characteristic (multifocal, bilateral, lower lobe and peripheral distribution, unusually round/nodular in shape, all of which helps to differentiate it from other lung pathologies) ground glass opacities on chest imaging. Sources: pubs.rsna.org... , www.medpagetoday.com...

Elevated D-dimer and fibrinogen (covid-19-associated coagulopathy.) Sources: www.hematology.org... www.hematology.org... , www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov... ,
jintensivecare.biomedcentral.com...

Asymptomatic hypoxia.
Source: www.medicalnewstoday.com...

Lymphopenia and other diagnostic abnormalities.
Source: www.nature.com...

This improved understanding of the disease processes affecting covid-19 patients not only helps with differential diagnosis on a clinical basis, but has also improved outcomes and lowered mortality over time.

So although it is ultimately up to coroners, medical examiners, and physicians to determine whether covid-19 associated disease processes were the cause of death, and while yes - once in a while, as with all other causes of death, misattributions do happen - they certainly aren't the norm during the pandemic. If anything, they are taking a conservative approach and ruling out some deaths likely to be covid-19 related: www.scientificamerican.com...

It also needs to be understood that any sort of conspiracy to mischaracterize data in that way would have to happen at that level. That's what it would take for that conspiracy theory to be true. You can't just fake the data at the state or national level and then rely on the media to propagate misinformation. The data isn't collected that way. You'd have to also fake it at the county and hospital facility level since that data is also available to us for comparison. (That's also why any simple attempt to do the opposite - conceal/falsely reduce national numbers - won't inhibit state or county data unless there's cooperation at those levels as well.)

To believe these deaths aren't real and significant is to believe that medical examiners, coroners, doctors, individual hospitals, and armies of diagnostic techs are all conspiring to mislead you, or just that incompetent. And that simply isn't true.

Young people can and do still get sick enough to require hospitalization.

20 to 30% of covid-19 hospitalizations are now accounted for by people between the ages of 18 and 49.
Source: gis.cdc.gov...

Additional pertinent detail found from that source: young adult and pediatric covid-19 patients (9% of hospitalized adults below the age of 49, up to 48% of pediatric patients hospitalized) also have no known underlying conditions at all at the time of hospitalization.
(Continued...)

School aged children are far less likely to become seriously ill than adults... but not necessarily less likely to transmit the virus if they're over the age of 10.

It is an oversimplification to say, "School age children do not get sick with covid-19 and do not transmit it." The reality, as always, is much more nuanced, and those nuances have consequences.

It is more factually accurate to say school age children below the age of 10 are dramatically less likely to become ill or transmit the disease based on what we can see, whereas children 10 to 19 are, while still unlikely to become seriously ill, roughly equivalent to adults in terms of transmission potential on the basis of asymptomatic seroconversion and the presence of viral load.

Sources: www.statnews.com...

and

See from 15:27 time stamp on:
www.youtube.com...

The fact is that we simply do not know if children transmit the disease as frequently as adults, but we do know that all of the factors for transmission (other than severe symptoms, usually) exist in them if they're carrying it above age 10. They have positive viral loads, they transmit those loads by talking, yelling, singing, physical contact, etc. just like adults. So there's no compelling reason to believe they do not spread the virus. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Thus epidemiologists suspect they likely do transmit, over the age of 10. This remains inconclusive and unconfirmed, however, due largely to the fact that we simply haven't tested it yet because of school closures. That is the current state of the data.

Masks work.

Source: files.fast.ai...

Not only to reduce spread, but masks also appear to increase the proportion of milder or asymptomatic illness, due to reduction of initial infective dose of the virus.

See the entire section from 30 minutes on:
www.youtube.com...

Note particularly the outbreaks discussed as the video goes on, wherein high mask adoption resulted in comparatively fewer cases who were seroconverted actually becoming acutely ill. This is another reason for mask adoption. It not only reduces spread - it may indeed reduce illness severity and course duration even in those exposed despite wearing them. That would also be consistent with what we know about other less novel viral respiratory disease outcomes in the setting of high mask adoption vs low or no masking.

In other words, more people may get less sick where masks are in widespread use, because even if they do contract the virus, they're exposed to less of it when it happens.
(Continued...)

A word for those who truly can't tolerate masks.

I am a firm believer in respect and compassion for people who struggle with mask use for legitimate reasons. Too often I see people immediately attack those who are suffering from obvious and very real anxiety symptoms or even mechanical impediments to breathing (or the subjective perception thereof which is still a real concern regardless of actual health impacts) while wearing masks. These are real concerns even if there is no legitimate danger inherent to wearing masks for the vast majority, and attacking people is not going to increase mask compliance.

I would urge people in this boat to stay home if possible. But I also know that isn't feasible for everyone, for a variety of reasons.

Instead - while I strongly urge everyone to consider that the data suggests mask use is hugely important for the control of this disease and for the reduction of severity in those who do become ill - for those who simply cannot or will not wear a mask for those reasons, it's important to remember that face shields, while more effective when used in combination with a mask, do still provide some (albeit significantly less) basic protection in the community.

Source: jamanetwork.com...

So if that describes you I urge you to seriously consider using a face shield if nothing else. It does not replace a mask. Please understand and know that, and act accordingly (avoid contact with vulnerable populations/persons, etc.) But if you absolutely cannot wear one, and cannot stay home, a face shield may be much more comfortable and you can breathe far more easily if that's an issue for you. They're easy to disinfect and keep clean and reuse and they're dirt cheap. And you'll still be helping to reduce spread and your own exposure at least more than using nothing at all.

Hand washing is highly effective.

Soap and water is more effective than sanitizer. If you use sanitizer, ensure it contains 60% or greater alcohol content. Above all, wash thoroughly, for at least 20 seconds, and pay particular attention to areas commonly missed (nail beds, wrists, under the fingernails, between fingers, backs of the hands, etc.) The scrubbing action is important. As is thoroughness. There's a reason doctors and surgeons have specific hand washing techniques. Follow their example, be thorough. Do it frequently, do it correctly.
Sources: www.webmd.com... , www.cdc.gov... , healthcare-in-europe.com...

Natural herd immunity is not a solution. We need a vaccine and high vaccine compliance to beat this.

Not just because of the immense toll it would require - some 2.2 million deaths assuming a 1% mortality rate (which we don't know yet) for 70% of the population to naturally become seroconverted - but because natural immunity doesn't appear to last.

While we don't yet know with certainty if this is true for SARS-Cov-2 (the virus causing covid-19,) we know with certainty that other coronaviruses can reinfect people. Sometimes multiple times in the same year.
Sources: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov... , www.medrxiv.org...

We also now know (and it's critical to say that this does not necessarily mean immunity vanishes this quickly, but it's still important to understand this regardless) antibodies after recovery from covid-19 begin to decline rapidly. Within weeks or months.
Sources: www.medrxiv.org... , www.thelancet.com...(20)31483-5/fulltext , www.the-scientist.com...

This, like the rest of the topics of this post, isn't cut and dried however. Neutralizing antibodies may decline, but it appears memory cells and other reservoirs of defense may persist much longer, providing potential longer term protection. However, this has yet to be confirmed.
In either case, any successful vaccine will likely require adjuvants of other means of provoking stronger and hopefully longer lasting immune responses in recipients. Failing that, we may need booster shots... possibly even more than annually, which would be a production and distribution setback of great magnitude in terms of availability.

And that's with a vaccine. Without one, this all suggests that natural herd immunity will be impossible. Even without significant mutation.

The virus will continue to cycle in and out of communities in waves, becoming endemic or seasonal at best. People will get reinfected, and for those who have already suffered severely and recovered, that could be a death sentence. Which leads me to...

There is a broad spectrum of disease between "dead" and "recovered." To simply "not die" is not enough.

You may notice a huge discrepancy in many of the dashboards and "covid counters" online, between total confirmed cases, deaths, and "recovered." Around 1/3 of confirmed cases are unaccounted for by death or recovery. This is at least in part because many patients who become infected are in limbo between the two, often suffering from severe, chronic illness, or repeated exacerbations, for months on end.

Sources: www.sciencemag.org... , www.healthaffairs.org...

Many end up with prolonged - even seemingly permanent - respiratory impairment, neurological symptoms, and other effects.
(Continued...)

As many as 1 in 3 people between the ages of 18 and 25 may develop severe disease
Source: www.ucsf.edu...

Of note in that study also is that smoking is a huge risk factor in otherwise healthy populations. Quitting smoking is always a good idea. Now you have another added incentive.

Temporary, even prolonged, economic downturns do not appear to inevitably cause more deaths than pandemics.

Population health did not decline and indeed generally improved during the 4 years of the Great Depression, 1930–1933, with mortality decreasing for almost all ages, and life expectancy increasing by several years in males, females, whites, and nonwhites. For most age groups, mortality tended to peak during years of strong economic expansion (such as 1923, 1926, 1929, and 1936–1937).

Sources: www.pnas.org... ,
www.history.com...

The same was true of the more recent Great Recession.
Sources: onlinelibrary.wiley.com... , www.nature.com...

Obviously, things aren't quite that simple, though. As the last article there explains, health trends still worsened, despite lower overall mortality. Put simply, driving, going to work, work related stress, exposure to potential sources of danger, and all the other things that come with increased economic activity, appear to increase our mortality more cumulatively than do gradually worsening health trends... at least absent some external catastrophic forcing event (pandemic, a war, etc.)

This is not to argue for or against lockdowns. Absent some kind of sustained support for businesses and employees alike, sustained shutdowns are not tenable as a solution. However, it's clear that claims that economic downturns - even outright depressions - would inevitably lead to more deaths, are simply not true in and of themselves.

I'll leave others to decide the implications of this. I'm simply sharing the data.

Scientists, doctors, and experts in any field are human. And there's a difference between data and policy decisions.

Yes, mitakes are made. Yes, knowledge changes. And no, epidemiology and infectious disease control are not perfect sciences... because there is no such thing as a perfect science. Lack of perfection in knowledge is the impetus behind the very existence of the sciences, just as the ability to amend the constitution exists in response to acknowledgement of the many imperfections of our union.

As an analogy, the data and science on automotive accidents, injuries, and deaths also aren't perfect, likely often seeming to contradict over time, and take different forms as data collection, study models and methodology, etc. change.

But we still wear our seat belts and car manufacturers still include air bags.

Preserving life is not a perfect, 100% free of error discipline. It is a goal. The pursuit of that goal should be undertaken with reason, empiricism, and data. We should avail ourselves of the best data and tools available to us as a society and as individuals. Not throw the baby out with the bath water because mistakes are made, or knowledge changes over time as a consequence of the scientific process.

In conclusion:

Some may take issue with this topic or its content. Some may attempt to dispute or undermine the sources or the implications of the data they contain. Moreover, as denoted above, new information may emerge which contradicts this data or clarifies it in ways that result in different interpretations. That's fine, that's the point. These are the facts to the best of our knowledge today. And that is what we should be guided by. We need to normalize having the humility to change our minds and our tactics as knowledge becomes available and evolves. That isn't hypocrisy. That's called learning.

To those who would scoff, attack, undermine, or belittle, frankly, as a high risk person likely to suffer severe illness or death if infected, I don't care. These are the facts. And this topic isn't written for you. This topic is for those willing to change their minds and behaviors. If having posted this causes even one person to modify their behavior or policy advocacy in such a way that it saves their life or the lives of others, I'm more than fine with that.

This site's motto is ostensibly "Deny Ignorance." I think that is a worthy goal for what is likely to be my final ATS thread given its uncertain future and the intentional rarity with which I post.

Peace.

originally posted by: AceWombat04


frankly, as a high risk person likely to suffer severe illness or death if infected, I don't care.

Frankly, if you're a high risk person you stay inside and protect yourself. I don't care. I'm going to go on and keep doing exactly what i've been doing for the last several months. Not giving a #.

Let’s put this into real life perspective.

Up until last night, I had not met one single person that knew someone that died of Covid.

So here’s how the conversation went:

Me: No one knows anyone that died from it.

Girl I met: I do

Me: Wow, I’m sorry to hear that. Did they have serious pre existing medical conditions?

Girl I met: Yes, they had terminal cancer.

Me: Okay...

Conversation over.

My gawd this sh!t is far past old!!

Can we get on with our lives PLEASE!!!

ETA: Oh yeah, and the girl was a nurse from Phoenix. The hospitals are empty according to her, as well....

a reply to: AceWombat04

So either one accepts that covid-19 caused this spike in deaths, or one must posit some other novel cause of death increase, serendipitously coinciding with the pandemic surge.

Easy peasy.

Let's start with the cowardly health officials who ordered the use of invasive ventilators rather than non-invasive methods of treatment, killing the vast majority of patients with no outside advocates, because they were too freaking scared of catching the virus to treat patients properly?

How about the dip# governors who placed symptomatic -- and therefore infectious -- CoVid positive patients into nursing homes, and holding all residents hostage in that germfest?

How about all the sick people who were refused proper and necessary medical treatment unless and until they were "turning blue" and literally on death's door?

How about all the people who were abandoned to self-isolation and died alone and scared and helpless at home, because when they could not take care of themselves, they had no one to take care of them?

How about all the people with pre-existing acute and chronic health conditions that were unable to receive proper and necessary medical treatment because we shut everything down except the most severe CoVid cases and died due to that lack of medical care?

How about all the people who have committed suicide because they were mentally/emotionally unequipped to handle the challenges of social distancin and/or isolation?

How about the people who committed suicide because the Draconian lockdown measures took everything from them -- their jobs, businesses, families, homes -- and everything they had worked for their entire lives was destroyed?

How about the many deaths attributed to CoVid when it wasn't the cause of death, but only present at death?
-------------------------------------------

How many do you think that accounts for???

MASK FACTS

Surgical masks are designed to protect patients from a surgeon’s respiratory droplets, aren’t effective at blocking particles smaller than 100 μm.

Filter efficiency was measured across a wide range of small particle sizes (0.02 to 1 µm) at 33 and 99 L/min.

N95 respirators had efficiencies greater than 95% (as expected).

T-shirts had 10% efficiency,

Scarves 10% to 20%,

Cloth masks 10% to 30%,

Sweatshirts 20% to 40%, and

Towels 40%.

All of the cloth masks and materials had near zero efficiency at 0.3 µm, a particle size that easily penetrates into the lungs.

Another study evaluated 44 masks, respirators, and other materials with similar methods and small aerosols (0.08 and 0.22 µm).

N95 FFR filter efficiency was greater than 95%.

Medical masks – 55% efficiency

General masks – 38% and

Handkerchiefs – 2% (one layer) to 13% (four layers) efficiency.

Conclusion: Wearing masks will not reduce SARS-CoV-2.

N95 masks protect health care workers, but are not recommended for source control transmission.

Surgical masks are better than cloth but not very efficient at preventing emissions from infected patients.

Cloth masks will be ineffective at preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, whether worn as source control or as personal protective equipment (PPE).

a reply to: AceWombat04

I don't want to be rude but this seems like a long winded way of saying don't believe your eyes.

Hospitals get federal dollars when they have covid deaths. Doesn't take 20 paragraphs to guess what's going to happen there.

And all the graphs and technical language in the world doesn't stop me from looking outside, talking to people, going by the hospital etc etc.

Sounds like a frantic attempt to justify everyone's over reaction. The truth is gonna come out. I want heads to roll.

originally posted by: Boadicea

How about all the people who were abandoned to self-isolation and died alone and scared and helpless at home, because when they could not take care of themselves, they had no one to take care of them?

How about all the people with pre-existing acute and chronic health conditions that were unable to receive proper and necessary medical treatment because we shut everything down except the most severe CoVid cases and died due to that lack of medical care?

Would just like to throw in that I lost a good friend in the last week who died of liver cancer alone in his home and wasn't discovered for several days. He had been unable to go to the doctor's or hospital for months to receive regular the checkups he needed due to covid bull#.

originally posted by: dug88

Would just like to throw in that I lost a good friend in the last week who died of liver cancer alone in his home and wasn't discovered for several days. He had been unable to go to the doctor's or hospital for months to receive regular the checkups he needed due to covid bull#.

I am so sorry, Dug. So so very sorry. As if the grief of losing your dear friend isn't enough... this hurts my heart, I cannot imagine how much your heart hurts.

Thank you for the confirmation that this is indeed happening, and has been happening, and will probably happen again. But I sooooo wish it wasn't the case.

Big hugs for your loss

a reply to: AceWombat04

Your information is as only as good as the numbers it gets.

GIGO.

In our State they can't find the numbers they want so they are making them up.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Our local news mentions the right way of reporting covid days. They state that the people dying have tested positive for Coronavirus. The news people will not lie to us, they live here and know that everyone knows that the vast majority of the people who died were in pretty bad shape to begin with, the majority of those who died were in nursing homes and were pretty bad or they had stuff like copd or had immune systems that were in poor shape. Any disease could have killed them. If they caught the flu they probably would not have made it. But the problem is that some workers in the nursing homes had no symptoms....which means they passed it on unknowingly to the patients.

This virus is not good definitely, and wearing a mask and social distancing should be observed, but it is not killing as many people as they are saying it is...they died with covid disease most times, it did not actually kill them.

On top of that, most places did not test for flu anymore, flu deaths went down to almost nothing, you can have the flu and covid together, just because they had covid does not mean it is what killed them.

I study research and data a lot, and with this covid19, it is one of the worst twisting that I have ever seen on the evidence. A mistake is a mistake if you do not learn from it, otherwise it is a learning experience. Our medical industry is not learning, especially the people who are spewing misinformation to make this look so bad. Yes, it is bad, but we have to concentrate on taking care of those at risk and start wearing masks in stores....something they initially said was not good in medicine...which was stupid, like they wanted this pandemic to become bad. You can have an economy and still have safety.

originally posted by: dug88

originally posted by: Boadicea

How about all the people who were abandoned to self-isolation and died alone and scared and helpless at home, because when they could not take care of themselves, they had no one to take care of them?

How about all the people with pre-existing acute and chronic health conditions that were unable to receive proper and necessary medical treatment because we shut everything down except the most severe CoVid cases and died due to that lack of medical care?

Would just like to throw in that I lost a good friend in the last week who died of liver cancer alone in his home and wasn't discovered for several days. He had been unable to go to the doctor's or hospital for months to receive regular the checkups he needed due to covid bull#.

They are talking about adding deaths from people who died from not being able to get healthcare and those who committed suicide to the covid deaths. www.heart.org...

I am posting this link that says there are 6 strains of the corona virus and each have a symptom cluster www.dailymail.co.uk...


they studied 1600 patients in the us and uk between march and april they are hoping it will help with better treatment for patients....not peer reviewed yet we will see where this leads

I remember that there was a thought that possibly that Italy got hit with a harder strain and that it mutated we got a milder one here in the states......I don't know anyone personally but my siblings son his friend that he went to school with died from covid he would have been in his late 30's early 40's

a reply to: JIMC5499

In 2018, there were 67,367 drug overdose deaths in the United States, a 4.1% decline from 2017 (70,237 deaths).

www.cdc.gov...

Where i live [Scotland ] we had 2490 deaths with covid most of these were elderly with health conditions 98% in the 4 month lock down ,In a bad flu year we have 5500 deaths a month .

Scotland’s drug-related death toll has increased by 27% over the past year to reach a record high of 1,187 putting the country on a par in terms of the fatality rate per capita with the United States, where synthetic opioids such as fentanyl have devastated drug-using populations.

www.theguardian.com...

If you look at suicides or Alcohol deaths for your country it makes the number of covid deaths look lame

Here is a pdf of the winter deaths in a little country like mine www.nrscotland.gov.uk...

This covid is a nothin burger

only one question...
who determs wat real ore fake corona news is ????????

originally posted by: Boadicea

originally posted by: dug88

Would just like to throw in that I lost a good friend in the last week who died of liver cancer alone in his home and wasn't discovered for several days. He had been unable to go to the doctor's or hospital for months to receive regular the checkups he needed due to covid bull#.

I am so sorry, Dug. So so very sorry. As if the grief of losing your dear friend isn't enough... this hurts my heart, I cannot imagine how much your heart hurts.

Thank you for the confirmation that this is indeed happening, and has been happening, and will probably happen again. But I sooooo wish it wasn't the case.

Big hugs for your loss

Thanks. I appreciate it. The news came out of nowhere. He was an old family friend. Someone i've known since.I was born. Pretty much family. My dad's best friend in the world.

Not only that, my sister's due any day now. Going to be my first nephew and nearly the whole time she's been pregnant the hospital's been ridiculous. She's barely been able to get in for the check ups she needs, struggled to get basic pregnancy vaccinations she needed and has had appointments delayed or cancelled. Luckily she has a really great midwife, but as it is, most of the family aren't going to be able to even be in the hospital when he's born. When my siblings and I were born, our whole family was there, the only one who's going to be able to even be at the hospital is her husband and even that was unsure up until fairly recently.

a reply to: dug88

Oh no. It just doesn't end does it? So many levels of craptastic...

My best wishes and brightest blessings to your sister and your whole family.