It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
originally posted by: AceWombat04
As you can see, cases and hospitalizations both fell despite dramatically increased testing over time.
Asymptomatic transmission within communities, initially believed to be rare, is now thought to be a primary driver of covid-19 propagation, comprising perhaps more than 40% of all transmission.
Last year's flu season may have killed as many as 62,000.
Covid-19 associated deaths in the U.S. alone currently stand at approximately 140,000 since the first known death in early February... a period of just over five months. Covid-19 has killed more than twice as many Americans in five months than the flu did all last year.
According to the best data we have (no data is perfect,) deaths from all causes - even disregarding covid-19 - increased dramatically in 2020 concurrent with the first surge of cases. (We do not yet know whether a similar increase will follow the second surge currently underway.)
An oft repeated assertion is that deaths being attributed to covid-19 are actually deaths secondary to other causes, or are being fabricated without evidence. In addition to the above chart effectively refuting that claim (as it counts deaths due to all causes, not just covid-19, and clearly demonstrates a spike coincident with the virus cases surging,) we can also simply look at what the criteria are for "suspected" (non-confirmed) covid-19 deaths.
To believe these deaths aren't real and significant is to believe that medical examiners, coroners, doctors, individual hospitals, and armies of diagnostic techs are all conspiring to mislead you, or just that incompetent. And that simply isn't true.
It is an oversimplification to say, "School age children do not get sick with covid-19 and do not transmit it." The reality, as always, is much more nuanced, and those nuances have consequences.
I am a firm believer in respect and compassion for people who struggle with mask use for legitimate reasons. Too often I see people immediately attack those who are suffering from obvious and very real anxiety symptoms or even mechanical impediments to breathing (or the subjective perception thereof which is still a real concern regardless of actual health impacts) while wearing masks. These are real concerns even if there is no legitimate danger inherent to wearing masks for the vast majority, and attacking people is not going to increase mask compliance.
Soap and water is more effective than sanitizer. If you use sanitizer, ensure it contains 60% or greater alcohol content. Above all, wash thoroughly, for at least 20 seconds, and pay particular attention to areas commonly missed (nail beds, wrists, under the fingernails, between fingers, backs of the hands, etc.) The scrubbing action is important. As is thoroughness. There's a reason doctors and surgeons have specific hand washing techniques. Follow their example, be thorough. Do it frequently, do it correctly.
Natural herd immunity is not a solution. We need a vaccine and high vaccine compliance to beat this.
Not just because of the immense toll it would require - some 2.2 million deaths assuming a 1% mortality rate (which we don't know yet) for 70% of the population to naturally become seroconverted - but because natural immunity doesn't appear to last.
While we don't yet know with certainty if this is true for SARS-Cov-2 (the virus causing covid-19,) we know with certainty that other coronaviruses can reinfect people. Sometimes multiple times in the same year.
In either case, any successful vaccine will likely require adjuvants of other means of provoking stronger and hopefully longer lasting immune responses in recipients.
Absent some kind of sustained support for businesses and employees alike, sustained shutdowns are not tenable as a solution. However, it's clear that claims that economic downturns - even outright depressions - would inevitably lead to more deaths, are simply not true in and of themselves.
Those aren't particularly high quality sources, but the point is that no source we have suggests herd immunity has been achieved in NY, and the only credible ones we do have suggest the opposite. Even assuming the 25% estimate is correct, that means we're only halfway to the lowest estimate of what would be required to achieve herd immunity in New York... and getting this far has already cost New York more than 32,000 lives. (27,000 of which died in a two month period.)
Daily confirmed cases in NY County - not the state as a whole, just NY County - have never fallen below 189 cases. For comparison, that is higher than daily infections - even now - in San Francisco, where no one would suggest herd immunity is even close to being achieved. The 14 day daily confirmed case average in NY County is 335.
Most importantly though, the infection rate in New York has risen above 1 again, and is climbing, albeit stable.
Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate by 5.4 percentage points after 1–5 days, 6.8 after 6–10 days, 8.2 after 11–15 days, and 9.1 after 16–20 days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply 10 times greater spread by April 27 without SIPOs (10 million cases) and more than 35 times greater spread without any of the four measures (35 million).
... this average effect masks important heterogeneity across states — early adopters and high population density states appear to reap larger benefits from their SIPOs.
Children younger than age 10 transmit to others much less often than adults do, but the risk is not zero. And those between the ages of 10-19 can spread the virus at least as well as adults do.
“I fear that there has been this sense that kids just won’t get infected or don’t get infected in the same way as adults and that, therefore, they’re almost like a bubbled population,” said Michael Osterholm, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Minnesota.
“There will be transmission,” Osterholm said. “What we have to do is accept that now and include that in our plans.”