US would struggle to defend Taiwan, and lose war to China simulations show

a reply to: Jay-morris
Heres a thought....when you control everything economy does not matter does it?

a reply to: JIMC5499

I agree that we should take it with a grain of salt, but at the same time, we shouldn't think we'd take them easily in a fight either.

a reply to: Arnie123

They're starting it now. Hypersonic development, forward positioning cruise missiles, antimissile defenses. But it's going to take a few years to get where they need to be.

This thread reminds me of that time an undetected Chinese submarine surfaced in the middle of a US Navy exercise and then disappeared again.

American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk - a 1,000ft supercarrier

By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles

The Americans had no idea China's fast-growing submarine fleet had reached such a level of sophistication

The lone Chinese vessel slipped past at least a dozen other American warships which were supposed to protect the carrier

Source

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: YouSir

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: chr0naut


You'd have to throw out lots of the Constitution and definitely the Electoral College, just to try and retain control (state rights being what they are).

Or go all Brit and make them territories.

Ummm...and then we could be...what chrOnaut is...

A vassal...

Fried Kiwi anyone...?

I hear it tastes like chicken...

YouSir

I'm an Australian citizen.

Australia is an independent country, but like the majority of countries who gained independence from the British Empire, we did it without a war, and by mutual agreement.

Constitutional history of Australia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

As for New Zealand, where I currently reside, the move to independence was even less contentious than Australia's (if such were possible).

Independence of New Zealand
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Also...

Kiwi meat: What it tastes like - Newshub

I wonder what American Freedom Chickens taste like? Probably like other carrion eaters - bad.

Ummm...I’ve been to Australia...as TDY in the military...I loved the country...especially the Shiela’s...

It was especially nice going to the clubs and having all those Shiela’s swoon over an American...fun...fun...

I have fond memories of all the weird field games ya’ll play over there...especially the football...that kicking the ball backwards bit was sure a hoot...

However...I also recall how enamored all the Aussie’s were with the Queen...so much that the pin on the beret was a crown...I’ve still got that beret...and the pin...

And the big todo when Prince Philip visited...almost like it was...royalty...
The only time I’ve ever met any of your...royals...

And BTW...your quaint little isle...and Australia...are part of the commonwealth...and not quite so independent as you would like to think...

Therefore...that makes you a vassal...of the Crown...

Unless you prefer...serf...









YouSir

originally posted by: YouSir

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: YouSir

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: chr0naut


You'd have to throw out lots of the Constitution and definitely the Electoral College, just to try and retain control (state rights being what they are).

Or go all Brit and make them territories.

Ummm...and then we could be...what chrOnaut is...

A vassal...

Fried Kiwi anyone...?

I hear it tastes like chicken...

YouSir

I'm an Australian citizen.

Australia is an independent country, but like the majority of countries who gained independence from the British Empire, we did it without a war, and by mutual agreement.

Constitutional history of Australia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

As for New Zealand, where I currently reside, the move to independence was even less contentious than Australia's (if such were possible).

Independence of New Zealand
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Also...

Kiwi meat: What it tastes like - Newshub

I wonder what American Freedom Chickens taste like? Probably like other carrion eaters - bad.

Ummm...I’ve been to Australia...as TDY in the military...I loved the country...especially the Shiela’s...

It was especially nice going to the clubs and having all those Shiela’s swoon over an American...fun...fun...

I have fond memories of all the weird field games ya’ll play over there...especially the football...that kicking the ball backwards bit was sure a hoot...

However...I also recall how enamored all the Aussie’s were with the Queen...so much that the pin on the beret was a crown...I’ve still got that beret...and the pin...

And the big todo when Prince Philip visited...almost like it was...royalty...
The only time I’ve ever met any of your...royals...

And BTW...your quaint little isle...and Australia...are part of the commonwealth...and not quite so independent as you would like to think...

Therefore...that makes you a vassal...of the Crown...

Unless you prefer...serf...

YouSir

Nah, but we did have a Constitutional crisis back in the '70's when the Governor General (who represents the monarch) kicked out the duly elected government. I don't think that can ever happen again.

Also, Aussie and NZ are part of the British Commonwealth of Nations, but Great Britain isn't, anymore, and membership of the Commonwealth is purely voluntary these days anyway.

You really know that independence means something when we can boot them out of their own Commonwealth.

China cancelled #5 and #6 carriers. #1 and #2 and junk Kuznetsov-class. PLA AF has no meaningful air wings.

originally posted by: yuppa
a reply to: Jay-morris
Heres a thought....when you control everything economy does not matter does it?

The sad fact about this, is you are actually serious!

In the next big war, I expect each Country to attack destroy each others communication, defence satellites first,

It doesn't take a simulation to know that defending Taiwan against China would be a losing scenario for the US.
The same as China would have no chance defending, say, Hawaii if it became independent, from US forces.

originally posted by: tayton
Holy. Let’s tell China they can beat us..,or maybe it’s a psyop to give them rope to hang themselves, hope the latter

The problem here is that China absolutely will not attack first. No matter what. No matter how much rope you give China it absolutely won't hang itself. That rope will just pile up and up.

China has always portrayed itself as being the victim aggression from outside actors. From the British Empire to Japan during WWII. It's an extremely important part of the national psyche. Because of this it will not move first. It will sit there and wait for you to act against it. Then it will flood the global media with images of it being attacked and you being the aggressor.

After that the gloves come off, but it won't make the first move.

originally posted by: FlyingFox
China cancelled #5 and #6 carriers. #1 and #2 and junk Kuznetsov-class. PLA AF has no meaningful air wings.

That doesn't really mean anything.

China's military is configured almost entirely to defend against an outside aggressor. It would use land based fighters and bombers flying from conventional airfields. Anything outside of the range of a land based fighter isn't China's problem.

China has also been building a lot of submarine launched anti-shipping missiles. They're extremely capable but they don't need to fire a single shot. US aircraft carriers are so expensive, and destroying one would be such a propaganda coup, that America would keep its carriers away from the submarines out of fear of one of them being destroyed. This effectively neutralizes the US carrier advantage.

China doesn't need to actually destroy a carrier, it doesn't even need to try. Simply the possibility of a carrier being destroyed will be enough to keep them at a distance.

China could keep US carriers at a distance using dummy missiles that simply looked real. The navy is that risk adverse.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Didn’t have time to read it. But does the war games specify the US going it alone? . Japan would enter on our side for sure and most likley Vietnam for a possible ground attack South Korea would be forced to with China’s proxy North Korea .

There’s even a chance with India .

What about China’s ability to defend the sea lanes between the Middle East and homeland to secure the oil ?

originally posted by: Zaphod58

They're starting it now. Hypersonic development, forward positioning cruise missiles, antimissile defenses. But it's going to take a few years to get where they need to be.

They got a good deal of ground to catch up in, and if their economy continues on the same path as it has for the last 5 years they will have more internal issues to worry about. Right now their aircraft carriers are total crap, and the planes they use on them are even worse ... I think as we push the cutting edge with things like rail guns, lasers, hypersonic small missiles, space type weapons like rods from god. B2s...etc. They have little options other than nuclear, and hopefully in the near future we will have space defenses in place so that if anything that is launched in China it doesn't leave China.

a reply to: Fallingdown

The actual report won't come out until this summer. We should get more details then, as far as what allies, if any, were involved, scenarios, etc.

a reply to: Xtrozero

China is actually ahead of us in hypersonic weapons. Their DF-17 HGV will be operational this year, if its not already. They also have what appears to be an RBCC air launched UAV that's potentially pretty far along.

originally posted by: Fallingdown
a reply to: Zaphod58

Didn’t have time to read it. But does the war games specify the US going it alone? . Japan would enter on our side for sure and most likley Vietnam for a possible ground attack South Korea would be forced to with China’s proxy North Korea .

There’s even a chance with India .

What about China’s ability to defend the sea lanes between the Middle East and homeland to secure the oil ?

Here is the weird part... India are not friends with China and it might give them a reason to get involved if most of the world goes against them. The same for Russia who has had border disputes since forever. If there was a country that should be worried about China it is Russia as they have a population of 150 million and China could over run their border with 300 million and not blink if 200 million died. A chained China is in their best interest as China looks at all their nature resources and starts to drool.

originally posted by: Zaphod58

China is actually ahead of us in hypersonic weapons. Their DF-17 HGV will be operational this year, if its not already. They also have what appears to be an RBCC air launched UAV that's potentially pretty far along.

Knowing how badly they develop and how bad the end product actually is, I'm not going to hold my breath waiting on their hypersonic weapons actually working as planned.

I'm actually in the drone business and I don't see that being a big issue with them having more capable drones as there are some limiting factors to drones if the skies are controlled, and that is what we do the best, control the skys...

a reply to: Xtrozero

Not coming from China, word from a few years ago was they had several successful tests, including one that got a direct hit on a moving target.

originally posted by: Zaphod58

Not coming from China, word from a few years ago was they had several successful tests, including one that got a direct hit on a moving target.

I would bet lasers would be very effective against them, but it is all about how much time do we have once detected. Hypersonics have a very large signature in their initial stage, so we will know it is coming. Also during that initial stage of launch they are most vulnerable whether using rockets to get up to scramjet speed, or high altitude for hypersonic glide speed.