Some quick math makes the coronavirus look like a complete non-issue

a reply to: [post=25038411]trollz[/post

I used to post on here many Moons ago as GoldenTorch but have since lost use of the e mail account connected to my account, so I've by-passed the introduction thread if you'll excuse.

I created a new account because I thought this may be of interest to you especially in this thread. It's a very cogent and eye opening look and re-examination of data connected to the outbreak and provides much food for thought.

wattsupwiththat.com...

It's from Anthony Watts blog, much recommended if your into the climate discussion.

wattsupwiththat.com...

So just a link to offer at the moment as I sit in place waiting for it to pan out

Op you need to listen to some doctors and virologists to gain an understanding of this situation. Look at the exponential growth of this virus, it's frighteningly fast. If too many people have the virus at any one time then it overwhelms the hospitals and so the lock downs are there to reduce the rate of spread to try and keep the infection rates manageable. If there arent enough ventilators to go around then the death rate increases. This is a serious situation.

a reply to: jam123

If you look at the trajectory of other countries in the death rate graph it becomes clear that other countries are on the same trajectory as Italy its just that Italy are ahead of everyone else. One of the reasons this could be is due to the shear number of flights between Wuhan and Northern Italy, which means Italy got the virus before anyone else in Europe.
Even though Italy has an older population doesn't mean other countries won't follow suit. Take the US for example. There are a lot of obese people with many health problems there.

a reply to: 666yrasrevdA

Also covered by the way in the article, in that he wondered whether the virus was unidentified at first and was already endemic in their Health Service, Nosocomial it's referred to as when an infection is caught in a Hospital. It will affect the figures if that's the case. China and Italy have a history of cooperation and the figures in Iran where China sent help are an interesting factor too.

originally posted by: Eben51
The Germans are testing more and finding better numbers, where in the US we are cherry picking out numbers by not testing anybody not running a fever. So surprise, there is probably about 3 times as many case falling off the radar in the US, leaving with numbers that seem crazy!

Even here in Germany numbers are cherry picked. Suspected cases are preffered because testing capacity is also limited here. To my Knowledge the number is 100,000 per week. But it's hard to find numbers.

Patients with symptons are often rejected by medical practice due to shortage of protective material. Non severe cases seem to be sent home to keep hospitals free where they recover.

My guess is that our death rate is such low because much fewer people are hospitalized here. The death risk in hospitals is much higher than outside. This seems to hold especially for italy. There must be something they are doing wrong there.

originally posted by: UKTruth
Yeah, I'll tell you.
Over 600 people died in Italy yesterday from Corona. It's an accelerating daily run rate of deaths. At the current trajectory between 0.5-1m Italians will die unless they can stop the spread.

America is even closer to the START of the trajectory.

The question you should be asking is how many people die normally in Italy anyway. I am guaranteeing you that those numbers are the same if not more per day for Italy normal death rate.

Look at world of meters. Just have a little scroll through those numbers, they are sobering! World of Meters

Just for today check these numbers it offers...

WORLD POPULATION
7,773,285,148 Current World Population
32,482,814 Births this year
243,829 Births today
13,637,063 Deaths this year
102,365 Deaths today
18,845,751 Net population growth this year
141,464 Net population growth today

pretty impressive right? That was a snippet from the second I posted this comment. The births alone, 243,829 Births today just reset the world.

but to make a point of real world deaths instead of these small numbers, 13,637,063 Deaths this year is alot more deaths instead of what we are hearing.

originally posted by: Kakamega
a reply to: trollz

You have done the wrong sum.

Try this sum:

3,407 as a percentage of 41,035

= 8.302668453758987 %.

That means over 8% of people who have caught it WILL DIE if Italy's data is repeated elsewhere. That is 8 people in every 100. This is staggering.

If the Covid-19 Virus infected all human beings, 7,530,000,000, then 0.62519093456805 billion people WILL DIE!

Now you understand why everyone is worried. It is showing to be highly and quickly passed on and we are all vulnerable to it.

World wide, 244,500 have been infected as of yesterday,

metro.co.uk...

the coronavirus death toll has now passed 10,000.

10.000 is 4.09 % of 244.500.

The world wide trend is almost 5 in every 100 dying who contract the Virus.

Nature has been a very clever hacker to have spread this on all of us and our machinery so very quickly.

Do you not see the obvious? That is why we must do everything we can realistically do to slow the infection rate so we have a chance of treating the ill. So quickly we will be inundated and people will be dying in their homes and their corpses rotting.

Let us not downplay this. We need some serious Malware protection here.

I am hoping not to lose my Mother to this who has just returned from India. She has a heart problem and very weak lungs. My brother's wife has MS and I have chronic asthma. I'll do anything I can to make sure we stay alive and tolerate what lockdowns need to happen to save us all from certain hell if this gets out of control. It has already got quite out of control in Italy. It is still spiking day after day. Day after day there are increasing numbers of people dying their hundreds now. Will that turn into thousands each day? It could do.

We have no idea how many people actually have the virus, the vast majority of cases could have no or very mild symptoms so they don't get tested and confirmed.

That means over 8% of people who have caught it WILL DIE if Italy's data is repeated elsewhere. That is 8 people in every 100. This is staggering.

Not at all, it means 8% of people who catch it and get bad enough to require hospitalization will die, not 8% of people who catch it. The vast majority of people will not even require hospitalization, never mind die.


If we actually tested more people, those numbers would come right down, but for some reason they refuse to test people with mild symptoms.

originally posted by: BlackProject
Look at world of meters. Just have a little scroll through those numbers, they are sobering! World of Meters

Look at www.euromomo.eu... and you'll see that you see nothing

Oxford study say half of UK might already has it and not knowing... too mild

1/1000 will go to hospital

Financial times

a reply to: Maker22
If this is true, and this is a big IF, then this whole pandemic is the dumbest thing the world has ever seen. Scientific heads will roll. People won't trust scientists or the media ever again. I'm on the brink of losing my job over this pandemic and many others already have.
This study has been heavily criticised tho, let's just see when the self testing kits become available here in the UK.

The OP is all wrong. They know and have control over these known health death statistics but coronavirus is an unknown to the medical science community. They can't predict it nor fully understand it so it's dangerous.

a reply to: trollz

simple maths from a simple person who doesn't even understand data modelling. Keep it to yourself.