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Some quick math makes the coronavirus look like a complete non-issue

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posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 12:49 AM
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a reply to: daskakik
I said I was going to bed...but had to make this last post...

www.health.com...

ok, now I am going to bed.




posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 12:57 AM
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a reply to: Eben51

Well 31M who caught the flu of which 12K - 61K died isn't close to the 2M your numbers show.


edit on 24-3-2020 by daskakik because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 08:36 AM
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Careful, there is no place for that kind of thinking during a pandemic.


a reply to: trollz




posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 09:34 AM
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a reply to: daskakik

I never said 2M was my number, you did. I said only 0.4% of the people that would catch this would pass away, you forgot the factor in what percentage of the population would actually catch this. My final prediction is by the end of year only 14K from the US will die from this, same an average flu season.



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 10:32 AM
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a reply to: Eben51
You said the percentage of the people that would catch this would be like rolling a 6 on a die. I looked it up and it turns out it would be 16.67%. I used that and your 0.4% mortality rate to get 2M.

How did you factor in the percentage of the population would actually catch this to get 14k?



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 11:16 AM
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originally posted by: Eben51
a reply to: daskakik

I never said 2M was my number, you did. I said only 0.4% of the people that would catch this would pass away, you forgot the factor in what percentage of the population would actually catch this. My final prediction is by the end of year only 14K from the US will die from this, same an average flu season.



Why would less people catch this than say the 2009 H1N1 strain or the flu?
For ref 60m Americans caught H1N1 and 1.4 BILLION worldwide.



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 11:17 AM
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a reply to: solve

It´s not:

www.covidgraph.com...

I´m also sckeptical about all this. Have a look at that data brake down in the link above, it´s what you´re wondering.



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 11:19 AM
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1. What if your numbers are off by a factor of 10?

2. I'm keeping two sets of charts; one for the world health organization's stats for my US state, and a second set of charts based on the daily updates from my state dept. of health. ( the numbers don't match. State's numbers are higher). How do you decide which numbers you'll use for self-justification?

3. The only important ratio is deaths divided by "recovered" cases. DO NOT use the number of current cases. The disease can take from 2-8 weeks to recover from. My state has yet (as of yesterday) to post a single complete recovery from a confirmed positive..

4. There is some evidence that recovered patients have permanent lung damage, and a susceptibility to pneumonia in the future. By September, it may be necessary to chart the incidence of pneumonia separately from covid-19 case outcomes for your state/province.

5. It seems likely that the disease will be less transmissible in the northern hemisphere during the coming summer. Which means that it is likely to spread passively, geographically, and then return with a vengeance next fall... with a new (probably less potent) strain.

6. There is currently no vaccine, and possibly no acquired immunity from this disease. Western medicine has an excellent track record of developing vaccines for even retro and RNA viruses like this one. But how do you factor in the time delay, and the odds that nCoV is one of the few viruses for which we simply cannot create a vaccine?

7. The model from the "Black Death" was an initial wave of disease that spread across the known world around 1340. But many of the survivors actually succumbed to "echo" waves of outbreaks over the next 10 years, and which continued on for the next 300 years. After a decade of outbreaks, the population of Europe was less than half of what it had been before 1340. How certain are you that such is now impossible because we have vaccines and ventilators....?



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 11:23 AM
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a reply to: Graysen

"1. What if your numbers are off by a factor of 10? " -They are apparently.

Also, apparently 1/3 of the infected show no symptoms but transmit. This is very close to the perfect bio weapon, if it´s natural I take my hat to Mother Nature, once again, it´s doing what has to be done to curb mankinds arrogance.



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 11:25 AM
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originally posted by: trollz


So, can someone tell me again why we're panicking and shutting everything down?


Because our healthcare system can't handle it. We don't have enough beds, medical staff or equipment . If your healthcare system breaks down, people will die massively not only of CoVid but other illness because they won't be able to get proper treatment.
edit on 24-3-2020 by XCrycek because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 11:43 AM
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a reply to: MikeHawkIsGreat

Kudos to you for retaining the "IF".

People have a tendency to assume that if a pathogen is effective, that it CANNOT be natural.


Heraclitus said 25 centuries ago: "wherever something eats, something else eats it."

Every time we beat a disease, we select for the disease we cannot beat. This has been going on in earnest since 8000 BC and the first cities. A disease has to get better at using humans, or it goes extinct.



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 12:07 PM
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You can always find out for yourself. Got to Manhattan take a stroll through the ER and get back with us in 3 weeks. I'll pay for the trip.



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 12:29 PM
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a reply to: Graysen

Could have escaped from the bio lab in Wuhan, could have evolved due to the filthy sanitary conditions in rural china who knows?

Have you seen this site?
www.covidgraph.com...

Explains a lot



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 01:48 PM
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originally posted by: MikeHawkIsGreat
a reply to: Graysen

Could have escaped from the bio lab in Wuhan, could have evolved due to the filthy sanitary conditions in rural china who knows?

Have you seen this site?
www.covidgraph.com...

Explains a lot


Thanks for the link.

If you go by the dictum that "correlation does not prove causation," it doesn't explain "a lot." Not anymore than an opportunistic infection that targets the elderly anyway. Just like a lot of respiratory ailments.

It is totally possible to me that this novel coronavirus was manipulated in a (chinese) lab.

But there is another explanation that is equally as possible, if not more so. That "wet markets" in Asia and Africa have been the main human interface with various animal-based illnesses.

In 2019 china, the problem has been identified as diverse species of animals being caged for up to a week, slaughtered and consumed on the same spot. This would select for diseases that can cross over to other meat-species, before being consumed by man. Thus, inadvertent (if not natural) selection for a species-crossing ailment that can use humans in their turn as a host.

In africa, there has been a 50-year campaign to eradicate what is there called "bush meat." There, the problem was less on-the-spot slaughter than it was the fact that locals would venture into "the bush" and kill primates, often monkeys or chimpanzees, and carry the carcass unrefrigerated back to a meat-market. It is now suspected that this is how HIV crossed from green monkeys over to humans...

The old pioneer American term for a similar practice was "Pot luck." If you think about it, this is what led to F. Scott Fitzgerald publishing The Concrete Jungle and led to the Lacy Act outlawing the sale of game meat in the United States. The "unsanitary working conditions" in the Chicago meatpacking district was actually that the workers got physically ill from improperly processed and wild meat. "Cat scratch fever" was a common ailment among meatpackers, and is actually Tularemia, a disease actually native to cottontail rabbit...

The presence of pangolins (who are hosts to a number of coronaviruses) in the wet markets of Wuhan is an equally plausible source of a respiratory disease that effects primarily the elderly.

I don't think killing the elderly of the west is a particularly effective tactic; most of them are non-productive members of society from a materialistic standpoint.

But to the point,

If anything, I could believe the Chi-coms unleaded this ON THEIR OWN PEOPLE because they have so many elderly (who have outlived the "one child policy" in effect til 2014) that it consumes all their healthcare resources. The problem from the governments point of view is not that they have too many children now; it's that they have too many old people, and cannot import healtcare workers from abroad as western countries do.

Taking out the USA old people would actually fix social security and de-funded pensions and correct institutional entitlement liabilities for a generation. The USA actually spends more on social security and medicare/medicaid than it does on defense. "Fixing that" would make the US government's job easier, not more difficult.



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 04:02 PM
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originally posted by: oriondc

originally posted by: Imhere
There’s a few reasons.

One is slow down the rate of cases and don’t overwhelm the hospitals with a big portion of the population not getting it at once. As it’s highly contagious.


There's no need to lock down the world to prevent overwhelming hospitals. Good handwashing techniques and social distancing (without quarantining entire states, countries) can accomplish this.


I'll stop you right there, no it can't. People don't listen to the "shelter in place" orders, or self quarantine either for that matter. And they sure as sh!t don't practice social distance. People like yourself, who dont believe it's as bad as the government let's on, just keep doing what they would normally. And even pointing out that they could cause the death of someone else doesn't sway them. Most of the rest just dont understand well enough what's going on, or what is actually intended by those "soft" orders (I say soft because, my government at least, hasn't firmly said for everyone is to stay home, they are still making allowances).

I've come to understand one very important fact in this life and frankly, people are idiots. Plain and simple.



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 04:50 PM
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a reply to: looneylupinsrevenge

A lot of people haven't picked up on the fact that society is changing this year. What the rules used to be is no longer in effect.

And a lot of people are like the flat-earthers. IF they cannot see it, it must not be true.

Internet users tend to be degreed, educated, and interested in the world. But look at the number of "hoax" threads on here. They cannot believe that there could be a pandemic in "this modern world." It has been happening for the last 100,000 years. It's probably what killed the neanderthals.

"But it's not going to screw up my Wednesday, is it????"



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 04:58 PM
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a reply to: Graysen

It's not they haven't picked up on it . It's more like a cognitive dissonance, refusal to accept it can happen, they tell themselves it's a hoax or not as bad as media say, Which is troubling but not surprising because media not only has a poor track record of telling the truth but are also sending mixed messages.

For some reason they refuse to hear what the medical professional's are telling us, they are sounding the alarm and not enough people are listening.



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 05:01 PM
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originally posted by: looneylupinsrevenge

originally posted by: oriondc

originally posted by: Imhere
There’s a few reasons.

One is slow down the rate of cases and don’t overwhelm the hospitals with a big portion of the population not getting it at once. As it’s highly contagious.


There's no need to lock down the world to prevent overwhelming hospitals. Good handwashing techniques and social distancing (without quarantining entire states, countries) can accomplish this.


I'll stop you right there, no it can't. People don't listen to the "shelter in place" orders, or self quarantine either for that matter. And they sure as sh!t don't practice social distance. People like yourself, who dont believe it's as bad as the government let's on, just keep doing what they would normally. And even pointing out that they could cause the death of someone else doesn't sway them. Most of the rest just dont understand well enough what's going on, or what is actually intended by those "soft" orders (I say soft because, my government at least, hasn't firmly said for everyone is to stay home, they are still making allowances).

I've come to understand one very important fact in this life and frankly, people are idiots. Plain and simple.


You pretty much nailed it. Sad but true.

We are probably doomed as a species, and I'm not even talking virus.



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 05:14 PM
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a reply to: Kakamega
This vid made some projections but their global deaths figure came to 160M:

Now can we have the math for how many die when there is a global financial system meltdown or collapse? Because when people have been caged up, can't work, can't feed themselves or house themselves and SHTF on a global scale, my guess is even 160M will be a drop in the bucket.

The way I see it, it is now inevitable we all get it anyway and anything we do is just slowing things down, as you said, so our hospital systems can cope. However, would we not be better off mass-scale building facilities, providing grants to educate more medical personal faster, so we are capable of handling the sick? This would be a better option, which would boost economies and provide a solution to the inevitable. The best defense is an offense IMO.

edit on 24-3-2020 by byteshertz because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 24 2020 @ 10:47 PM
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Sorry, my calcs were off. I calculated for 4% death rate instead of .4%. Still using the numbers posted by Eben51, that would be 200K. Don't know how they got 14K.

If we go by the 60M infected by H1N1 it would be 240K.



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