Corona Virus Updates

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Agit8dChop

What was the first? Whatever happened to the young backpacker who was on a ventilator?

he apparently recovered - i saw an article saying as much and havent seen anything since.
I think the first death was shanghai (im wrong on that let me find out) outside of wuhan

Good morning everyone, this thread is awesome! It reminds me of the good ol' days of ATS, in the way everyone has come together on this. Here's a breakfast beer for you all.

On topic,

DNA database matching proves that the Ncov-2019 virus has originated from bats. No need for peer review reports, the data tells the story. As you can see from the screen shot below which shows the top 10 matches, the closest match is 95%, the other 5% can be explained as being the mutation.


For the top 100 DNA sequence matches click the link below, scroll down the page and click BLAST. It will then match the data and show the results.
The direct link to the match results didn't work.

blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov... nuccore&PAGE_TYPE=BlastSearch

We have passed another milestone:

The table below shows confirmed cases of coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China and other countries. To see a distribution map and a timeline, scroll down. There are currently 2,015 confirmed cases worldwide, including 56 fatalities.

bnonews.com...

The below table is a prediction of upcoming cases.

This table has been pretty accurate thus far... keep an eye on it for reference:



Today is 1/25/20 and confirmed cases is 2,015 (predicted 1590) and deaths 56 (predicted 33)

I think you will be seeing a lot more deaths from side-effects of the virus, as the video from China hinted at, such as heart attacks, etc. Because these people can't be treated because medical facilities are over-flowing and resources are few.

When I saw China locking things down in their own country, I kind of suspected that maybe it was accidentally released from the lab. If indeed it is mean to destroy the masses, China may freak out and be like... crap, once this gets out and if we haven't taken steps to stop it, then other countries might consider it an act of terror to the world and then who knows what would happened. Attack China while the leadership and resources are overwhelmed?

If they admit it was an accident, maybe the major players in the world will have pitty on them.

It will be interesting to see how this all unfolds.

a reply to: weirdguy

That pretty well makes it SARS round II. SARS was bat origin too. This time it's bigger, longer, and uncut. W00t for us ...

Interactive map for Coronavirus
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com...#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Not sure how accurate it is.



gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com...#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6




Bugger... click on the blue underlined "Map"
www.foxnews.com...

As of Friday, more than 900 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed and 26 people have died from the virus, the map shows. The majority of the confirmed cases have been in mainland China with 916 sickened. However, dozens of cases in Illinois are under investigation after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed a second case of coronavirus in the United States.

a reply to: slapjacks

Amen to that... Western MSM is dubious, China ... Credibility thru crisis , not buying it
The below is closer to the state of affairs ....and uggg.. began in mid December .?.. ...

originally posted by: celltypespecific

With unofficial numbers which are probably 100 times higher, we're already in 02/07

a reply to: MetalThunder

If China is as bad off as things we've seen, I'm wagering it started before mid-December.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: weirdguy

That pretty well makes it SARS round II. SARS was bat origin too. This time it's bigger, longer, and uncut. W00t for us ...

Yes, it looks to be that way. The top 100 DNA matches are all SARS related.

a reply to: Bigburgh
Yeah that first source is very slow in updating... it was the one I was using until I realized other official reports were a fair bit higher. The following source is the one that was given in previous page and seems to be the most up-to-date and and frequently updated:

bnonews.com...

originally posted by: slapjacks

originally posted by: EndtheMadnessNow
1,975 cases, 56 dead reported by China state media.

twitter.com...

We know how China is. My question is; what do you think the real numbers are?

Aside from what they are likely holding back, coupled with mass panic, who is doing all the counting? Can't be easy with all the chaos.

That said and given the population density, how many are sticking it out in their homes and the number of people waiting in line at hospital that haven't been checked/counted... and the first case was supposedly Dec 12, 2019, I would guess the number is over 10,000.

Wuhan alone has a total population of about 19 million.
1% = 190,000

Wuhan is just one city. I could be totally off base but China is over 2000 right now (as reported) and SARS (slightly more contagious) had around 8,100 infected and ~800 deaths but that count was a 9 month period.

"Preliminary R0 (number showing how contagious / transmissible a pathogen is) for Wuhan nCoV2019 novel coronavirus: 1.4 - 2.5. Here are the figures for other diseases SARSvirus MERS & their case-fatality rates to put things in perspective."


twitter.com...

originally posted by: slapjacks
UPDATE OUT OF CHICAGOLAND AREA:

A Friend of mines husband was admitted this morning here in town with symptoms of severe pneumonia. That is all I know at the moment. Will update when more details become available. Stay safe everyone!

The confirmed Illinois case is in a hospital in Hoffman Estates. No report on his condition at this time.

a reply to: Navieko

Thanks for linking this.

a reply to: celltypespecific
Where did you find that table?

originally posted by: EndtheMadnessNow
Wuhan alone has a total population of about 19 million.

Not that it diminishes your overall point by much, but I believe the population of Wuhan is around 11 million. The Hubei province though has a population of close to 60 million, in which the city of Wuhan exists. It's only a matter of time before the entire Hubei province is just as badly affected as the city of Wuhan alone.

Something else to consider: China has a much higher population density than almost everywhere in the US. A little hard to avoid close contact when you'rye packed in that close to other people. Things will look equally bad in places like India.

a reply to: ketsuko
If I'm correctly reading the map on Wiki, population density in urban cores in Wuhan is over 15000 per square Km.

So from various unconfirmed sources ive started noticing a few things being repeated..

Ro = 3.8 (so every 1 person infects 3.x people)
You can possibly be infected via the eyes and certainly through the mouth and nose.
You can possibly be infected by touching surfaces infected people have touched (did that get confirmed?)
It has around a 2 week incubation period (although reported cases at 23-24 days)
It is human to human transferable
Typical symptoms of the flu, however fever was not present for all victims

I'm going for a bike ride, im going to go see how supplies of facemasks are at chemists and so forth.. see what the publics feeling

hmmm, the closest DNA match of 95% was sequenced by,



Here is the genome, www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...$=nucltop&blast_rank=1&RID=2TUT4RF501R

It's ok, the hospital is just a military uni/ med school. It's not a bio weapon facility....

The Nanjing General Hospital of People's Liberation Army (NGH; Chinese: 中国人民解放军南京总医院), formerly Nanjing General Hospital of Nanjing Military Command (Chinese: 中国人民解放军南京军区南京总医院), or Nanjing General Hospital, The Military General Hospital, is also known as Jinling Hospital (formally Jinling Hospital of the Medical School of Nanjing University) which used to be Central Hospital. NGH is located at 305 Zhongshan East Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China.

NGH is responsible for the hands-on education task of teaching medical post-graduates and doctorates ( including those who are accepted as medical undergraduates) of the Nanjing University Medical School, and the five-year medical students of Southern Medical University,[9](the former First Military Medical University) and the Second Military Medical University in clinical studies. Its special medical programs bear the responsibility for human resources training of some health professions of the whole Chinese People's Liberation Army and Nanjing Military Command.

en.wikipedia.org...