Stockman Warns: Day of Reckoning Is Here, ‘Get out of the Market, the Bond Market’

a reply to: ttobban

Debate is a trade, much like investing. Your debate stock is over sold.

We're not in a debate.

All I care about is net to gain ratios and patterns, not facts. Facts are what happen as a result of current and future actions. Even thereafter and settled into the past, facts are still questionable (which equals opinion).

I see you're trying to weasel out of having to provide evidence for your stupid claims.

I speak math, where fact can actually live as fact. 2+2=4 in any language. Language steers emotions irrationally too heavily, where opinions are perceived as whining and completely not even on par with the threads OP. Post+Perceived Whining=Bad Investment.

Now we're falling back on nonsense.

Maybe we will battle or accuse in another thread, but you seriously have zero value to offer to the previously spoken ratios mentioned...

How about you not make # up and expect other people to buy it just because you say so?

a reply to: projectvxn

You got me all figured out...

So shall I trust my research and results of speculation or that a random ATS poster knows without a doubt I am wrong prior to a single question of content? Good, let me be wrong and happy and move on. If I were a losing investor, maybe care would seed... who knows? My formed catalog of speculation/opinions allow for me to speculate further individually as the history of speculation has been kind to my experiences.

Don't eat the words typed by me, I barely care what I think let alone a thread where I am getting trolled on. You left the docks of sensible debate long ago. Or maybe it's up on Mt. Woke way beyond my level of rationality? Perhaps we differ as to what debate of value is too... no biggie, life goes on.

We're not going back and forth all day here. Trying to avoid Autistic debates where heads are repetitively beaten against a wall to nowhere may make me a weasel, but at least I am happy with the level of investor/speculator/opinion giver learn thus far.

We just can't make a thread in a thread that is personally motivated. These posts are just bad investments on all levels, so this is the last we speak in this thread...

a reply to: ttobban


Interesting take on Tesla being over automated. I have mentioned a few times in posts when relevant. Is an automated factory as cost efficient as a non automated one? . It might seem a statement that flies in the face of economic wisdom. But to see an automated car plant, with many high maintenance gadgets humming away until they don't is an interesting sight that looks like magic. My gut instinct is that a factory that's run efficiently with skilled labour even with the profit drain of paying wages, would come out at least even when it comes to the cost of keeping the high tech machines going. Then on the broader economic front , when the workers go on welfare because their jobs are gone, someone has to pay the welfare, which will never be enough for the ex worker to buy a car from said plant.

a reply to: CharlesT

Interesting discussion here by Luke Gromen. He believes the US is fast approaching a situation in which all federal income will be required to pay interest on debt and unfunded liabilities (401K). With his models predicting it could occur within the next two years.

So that would help explain why we are seeing international investors dumping US bonds. Why the US private sector has had take up the slack. But when the private sector can no longer afford to invest in government debt what then. Will the US try to print their way out of trouble, Equating to higher interest rates, higher inflation, collapsing USD etc etc etc

We are not talking a mad max scenario by any stretch of the imagination. So although it might be prudent today to cash in and see what occurs. Its not wise to allow your wealth to be eaten by inflation over a longer term.

I am still 100% invested in stocks but concentrating my investments into companies that I believe will be more likely to profit from a falling USD (note that I am in Australia).

a reply to: anonentity

Is an automated factory as cost efficient as a non automated one?

In current times, absolutely not. Technology is not at the point yet that costs reduce to maybes... and almost certainly after that the answer will become absolutely yes. This is a sliding scale type of time lapse where current trends become less relevant to the future market speculations.

A good example of what I mean is Aurora Cannabis. They built that Aurora Sky facility in Alberta Canada. This is an automated grow facility that can supposedly reduce human intervention to require 6 people to grow all cycles in a 800,000 sq. ft. facility. By avoiding human pathogen contamination risk alone their main product will remain steady and cost reduced. They predict $1 per gram yields when fully operational. Compare their grow to the common one and they are on different worlds, which is why I invest in ACB too.

I read in a Tim Ferriss book that the future business will have two employees... one human and one dog. The human will be there to feed the dog while the dog is there to keep the human off of the product. This is a sentiment I agree with.

Remove the human element and the major drag of support costs are eliminated with them. The cost of raw goods will plummet. If the only costs of production become the cost of raw goods and energy. Decentralized economics will regulate the costs to proper levels much like short traders keep the shady businesses honest in current times.

The real costs may not show to be financial as a paycheck is not the primary reason a majority of people show up to work each day. The emotional state of the no longer employed will plummet to lows when their efforts of humans progressing as a team and the silent need humans have for it no longer know how to learn to be a human again. Their human robot duties may be relieved, but the human companionship that people lose with it will render money meaningless... humans will have to learn to be humans again, instead of programmed robots... it will be a hard road.

Or, costs remain steady throughout the cost reduction era, and the capital markets will be forced to pay the universal basic income... not too sure. People may stop buying cars as they know it now, so their universal income will offer access to Uber/Lyft networks based on your travel needs. People won't drive cars... they will be monitoring their investments while automation removes people being on the internet in a 3,000 lb. missile while driving 80 MPH moving as efficiently as technologically possible. Hell, driving may become illegal or way too costly to own and keep a vehicle one day... it's already half way there. You'll have to get a pilot license like an air plane pilot as keeping up with the efficiency of AI on roads will be a skill that requires massive insurance premiums.

Can it be considered welfare when its given universally to all Americans? Investors of now may opt out of the universal plan as their need for assistance will be void when the times comes...

a reply to: ttobban


What you say is correct for the scenario stated. But looking at farming a hundred years ago took 80% of the labour force now it takes about 8% on the face of it looks great. But this massive state of industrialisation, only works if the scale of consumption is their to support it. If the consumer supporting it drops significantly i.e.. they haven't got the cash. Then at some point the profit wont be enough to support the scale of expenditure to support the massive infra structure required to produce the food in this way. OF the the 80 % of the personnel that was in the food industry many moved over manufacturing and service industries. Now the automation is catching them up but the same thing applies, a super automated factory, has to have an equal market to justify the scale of its production. At the moment car finance loans are in the greatest amount of arrears in history, with defaulting mortgages rapidly behind . If the consumer had the cash this would not be the case. Automation removes people from the economy, when the economy is people, you have to assume the economy is on suicide watch. This has been hidden because of easy credit, and lower interest rates, its unprecedented. Either way it has a use by date.

a reply to: glend

Listened to the video until the "expert" said he put his first S&P short trade on, the US dollar driven S&P has since rallied up over 2800..

I went into 3% fixed income products last July, so will have to wait till the next round of QT occurs sometime this year before considering buying any stock again.

Globally I am expecting countries to print their way out of debt, the country with the largest import trade imbalance will lose their currency value so that the cost of importing goods becomes more expensive.

Little surprised the Chinese aren't intelligent enough to see Trumps end game?
The US tariffs on imports are pretty clearly aimed at reducing US dependency on imported goods so that the US *could* go on a currency printing frenzy and allow the US dollar to tank.
The US is almost non dependent on foreign oil at a price that would have saved Venezuela from their political turmoil.

The message seems to be for foreign countries to keep selling us ultra cheap imported goods or the US will go into SHTF isolationism and destroy any foreign economy relying on exports to the US.

a reply to: anonentity

In a centralized world, which we live in each and every day, you make valid points of which are tough to disagree with. The world has remained centralized thus far, so odds are against me when I preach about decentralized societies... I am aware of this.

The search for opportunity in it all motivates my speculations, so it naturally serves me as a 'survival of the fittest'. I am already shifting to operate in decentralized manners since I'd like to not rely on third party interests to operate business functions. There will always be both rich and poor people no matter the time or how automated things are.

As for scaling compared to the world of currencies we live in now, only a small portion of humans have access to top tier level financial management vehicles. Assets purchased OTC are an example, where the rich buy in bulk at a steep discount because they have the capital to do so. Poor people pay a premium and pay retail rates as bottom feeders.

There's over 7 billion people globally... 3 billion of those have access to no banking. Of the 4 billion that do, only a very small percentage have access to the best banking possible. When phones that are $1000 now are $30 in the future, in a decentralized fashion, it means that our entire constructs of money management will be a chore for all.

Instead of your phone being access to your banking, your phone will become a bank... assisting the 3 billion people globally to get acclimated to the newly formed decentralized society. Smart contracts on block chains will mediate such possibilities, reducing costs by eliminating 3rd party trust networks. I am quite thankful to see this as inevitable, so investing just may show to be a required skill to adapt to the automated and augmented age.

5G will change almost everything we know as normal. Not working robot shifts 40 plus hours a week is a blessing and a great chance for humans to become humans again. Perhaps those that require a consumption to live are serving their desired path of natural selection?

The industrial age required muscle... the information age requires brain... the augmented age will require heart to thrive, which means business will use AI and automation for efficiency while the humans relax and be humans as a team.

If it remains a 1% game as we know it now, then I agree with you. Decentralize it and those hidden aspects you speak of become exposed.

Cool debate... thanks!

a reply to: Slichter

Are the stock markets recovering?

Does that mean that consumer spending is up or inflation is up?

Because if consumer spending is up I would like to see the numbers.

The technicals/ fundamentals are missing from the market.

a reply to: glend

The private sector cant even afford food anymore just look at the increase in corporate and consumer debt

That's all you need to know. Debt to income ratio tells all

a reply to: toysforadults


It will be interesting to be a debt collector, if the rate of defaults continue at this rate it will be years before anyone comes for you, unless every second person becomes one, and that the unemployment solved.

a reply to: anonentity

If wages don't go up or the fed continues its inflationary policy and there isn't a pullback in asset value expect a major major correction

At some point in time we have to cut our losses with the pensions and those collecting will reap what they sow

originally posted by: Slichter
a reply to: glend

Listened to the video until the "expert" said he put his first S&P short trade on, the US dollar driven S&P has since rallied up over 2800..

I went into 3% fixed income products last July, so will have to wait till the next round of QT occurs sometime this year before considering buying any stock again.

Globally I am expecting countries to print their way out of debt, the country with the largest import trade imbalance will lose their currency value so that the cost of importing goods becomes more expensive.

Little surprised the Chinese aren't intelligent enough to see Trumps end game?
The US tariffs on imports are pretty clearly aimed at reducing US dependency on imported goods so that the US *could* go on a currency printing frenzy and allow the US dollar to tank.
The US is almost non dependent on foreign oil at a price that would have saved Venezuela from their political turmoil.

The message seems to be for foreign countries to keep selling us ultra cheap imported goods or the US will go into SHTF isolationism and destroy any foreign economy relying on exports to the US.

China and Russia know the US economy is declining. The issue at hand is whether they want to speed that decline or not....

a reply to: toysforadults


If things collapse, their isn't enough money to pay the margin calls on the derivatives, that's why the six major banks that run the fed, wont let a collapse happen. But that means a long slow bleed which could last decades, the cheap money will continue, but it wont be used to retool America, because their is no market to service which isn't being serviced by China cheaper. Slow bleed means rioting and social unrest, a rock and a hard place.

a reply to: anonentity

Just think. If young people stopped getting degrees and worked harder this wouldn't happen.

The funny thing about guys like him is that the succes of his assumptions depend on timing and your willingness to believe.

If he can get enough people to believe it, it will be a selffulfilling proficy.
Which in turn will make the "right" people wealthy...

Economic wealth is based completely on rumors and lies.

a reply to: toysforadults

The Fed spokesperson Jerome Powell said today the US inflation target is 2% annual max.
He also said the Federal Reserve will be publishing guidelines for the quantum tightening which so far has only removed $4.4 billion worth of debt from the books. Target appears to be about $2.8 Trillion more, possibly by the end of this year!

The Stock market correction last year took a lot of money out of stocks some of which was invested in bonds/CD's/and savings. The stock fund managed accounts didn't do very well exiting from the market till it was down over 10%.

Looking at the Dow Jones, its back up close to 26,000 on thin volume, but you wouldn't expect to continue taking large volumes of cash out of a stock market and expect the price index to rebound. Theoretically you could rebound on thinner and thinner trade volume after each pull back to continue the illusion of a bull market for a while.

As far as indicators go the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earning ratio doesn't appear to be at historical highs although the 2008 crash occurred at an even lower CAPE.

Last year I was thinking the Dow would stay in the range of 21,000 to 25,000 until after the QT was finished.

a reply to: Slichter


The thin volume is the banks buying stock because no one else is, they could keep this going for a very long time. Where is the money going, probably back into the banks where its being held as cash.

a reply to: anonentity

Banks are allowed only limited exposure to stock market volatility after the housing bubble took them out.
They are giving us choices, make the wrong choice and lose a lot of money.

Saw this marketwatch prediction for a "shock and awe market rally".

www.marketwatch.com...

Lot of people might participate and buy stocks rather than buy the US debt products, end of year comes along and the market crashes again so the government gets 20% of the selloff as tax revenue.

That is completely opposite of what Jerome Powell has been suggesting with talk of unwinding over a trillion dollars worth of QT by the end of 2019.

Who is right?