The Fermi Paradox - What It Is and Categories

a reply to: Soylent Green Is People

in Flatland, Edwin Abbott was simply giving ideas of what such a being would see if our 3D universe interacted with his 2D universe, but he didn't get into how that might even work, or how the matter from our universe -- with the physical properties of our universe -- could possibly even physically coexist.

You missed Sagan's perspective of just that in the video I linked ^^^.

Of course its allegory, there is no 2d flatland.
But considering that 2d flatlanders can't see up , we can't see the next dimension either.

So the question, where is everyone has an answer in this regard; 'they' are everywhere, all around us, we just can't see them from our current 3D spatial limited perspective.

Considering further:

Hubble reveals how every direction we look our Known Universe is full of galaxies, to the limits of observation. Considering, space could be boundless and infinite, that it has always been there, then life has had pretty much forever to advance and spread pretty much everywhere (ere we are).

Considering the vastness of distance between galaxies and stars, considering that if life is everywhere and we can't detect it with our 'detectors', then that advanced life may have developed to the point it is capable of jumping or traveling beyond time and space as we know it, from our three D perspective.

No matter how far we look , no matter how sensitive and finely tuned our detectors become to hear and see as far as possible, we will never detect other advanced civilizations because we can't see their domain. Any more than 2D flatlanders can perceive "UP".

I brought this before, the video snippet from "I know what I saw". The Iranian colonel that saw a 'thingy' "jump" from one point to another in an instant. 1:08 into here:

I also saw a thingy make an abrupt angular change of direction with no radius of turn at impossible speed, violating known laws of physics regarding momentum and inertia.

I also notice the seeming strangeness in the belgium wave photo of 'ripples' around the 'lights' of the 'thingy' in this photo.

There is another matter we have to consider in all of this - time. We have been able to send and receive radio waves for barely a century now, which means that the radio footprint of our planet is 100 light years in diameter. For all we know there might have been 'is there anyone out there?' signals coming in at about the time that Julius Caesar was marching his men over the Rubicon - but they might be extinct by now.
We also tend to forget that we are less than a flyspeck on the galactic map and that we have existed as a civilisation for less than a nano-second in the history of the galaxy.

a reply to: intrptr

Keep in mind that images, videos and eyewitness accounts of UFOs are not really proof of anything other than people captured an image, video or saw something that they can not explain.

There is a good reason the word "Unidentified" is the first word in the acronym "UFO", no one knows for sure what they are.

Believing that they are aliens from another world is just high speculation. Speculation that they are actually "Black OP" ships made in secret.....ships from another dimension.......time travel ships...and various other speculation is just as valid.

Unless one of these finally lands in plain view of millions of people, and out walks alien life forms giving us a big "hello", they are simply nothing more than an curiosity that have no explanation grounded in scientific proof.

Another issue I see cropping up in these discussions is the view of how vast our universe is and the amount of stars and galaxies. That because of those things, it must be proof also.

While it sounds good, people need to go over and take a look at the next thread that was created: The Fermi Paradox - Rare Earth Hypothesis Part 1
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a reply to: eriktheawful

There is a good reason the word "Unidentified" is the first word in the acronym "UFO", no one knows for sure what they are.

"UFO" is the most widely agreeable term because people that haven't witnessed one will pounce. Except... once you see one you become a witness, it is no longer about belief or disbelief. I know what I saw was not earth tech and yet was technical.

Theres only two things it could be, either ten peoples imagination or something 'out of this world'.

Yah sorry, I have no 'proof' just my word. So from your perspective it remains unknown, you weren't there, have to remain a skeptic. I'm the most skeptical when it comes to evidence, you know that.

The overall appearance, speed and movement of the thingy I saw added up to convince me, overall. I wanted so desperately to explain it away, like most skeptics.

No can do.

Will be with me forever, unlike anything I ever, ever saw. Factoring in my dad was an aerospace engineer for Lockheed, took me to every Moffett Field air show and display, watched every televised launch and flight, studied every weapons system, read most every UFO book, and saw most ever documentary on the subject as well following up right here, culminating in a life time of study and backed up by experience.

I know what I saw. It wasn't unknown.

But like my other posts here, trying to describe it with words or science and physics is as impossible as a 2D flatlander trying to describe "up". Especially to other 2D flatlanders that will tell you in no uncertain terms there is no such 'known' thing...

a reply to: eriktheawful

Oh and, did I say Hi, glad you responded, I was kind of hoping your would,.

To answer the question, where are they: my pat response is: all around us.

originally posted by: AngryCymraeg
There is another matter we have to consider in all of this - time. We have been able to send and receive radio waves for barely a century now, which means that the radio footprint of our planet is 100 light years in diameter. For all we know there might have been 'is there anyone out there?' signals coming in at about the time that Julius Caesar was marching his men over the Rubicon - but they might be extinct by now.
We also tend to forget that we are less than a flyspeck on the galactic map and that we have existed as a civilisation for less than a nano-second in the history of the galaxy.

Our instruments could be as primitive...

image

a reply to: intrptr

It's not an argument of whether or not what you saw was a UFO, or if it was a UFO that it is proof of advanced alien intelligence.

It's only proof of: we don't know what they are.

Sure, we could make another category for UFOs and say that because people see UFOs, it must be proof, because they believe it so (no actual hard evidence like an actual UFO on display and being investigated), there for "case closed" there is no paradox.

But that's not what these discussions are for.

Discussions on the Fermi Paradox are based upon what we know of both the Earth and the universe around us that is based upon documented scientific proof and theories that have supporting evidence.

Is it still speculative? Absolutely. It will always be speculative until we either actually make contact with an alien civilization, or are able to physically explore every square inch of the universe.

Saying: well there are UFOs and people believe that they are alien, there for aliens do indeed exist there for there is no need to discuss this, is a very short sighted way to look at something.

Just as someone who says: UFOs do not exist, is a very short sighted way of looking at things.

In some of the Solutions, we do have to make assumptions in order to discuss it. My next thread will be on Communication and Contact. In that thread in order to discuss it, we have to assume that yes, they are out there, but come up with reasons for the lack of signals, knowing about signals, and why we don't see some big alien battle cruiser in orbit around our planet.

originally posted by: Vratyas
a reply to: eriktheawful
But look at the clever primates......7 million years ago a group of them started to change and tahdah! Here we are.....humans.

Love the gap

'

Problem is that source of that last 5% difference in gene specialization that makes us be intelligent and math oriented has not been identified.

Thus, leaving the possibilities wildly unconfirmed, deeply intriguing, and just to the liking of most of my fellow ATS explorers.

By definition of an alien we can agree upon I think, the followers of Yahweh God are following an Alien to Earth who is credited with creating 'man in their image'. Angels are from heaven which has to mean not from Earth. Our semantics need considering when trying to define these things.

originally posted by: bloodymarvelous

originally posted by: knowledgehunter0986

Even though this was a really great and very insightful post, I have to disagree with you, because your theory is based on the assumption that life can only exist as we understand it, which I think would be ignorant at worst, and arrogant at best. We barely understand the true nature of who or what we are, so to use humans on earth as a metric in determining if life could exist elsewhere would be extremwly naive of us.

Theoretically there are Infinite possibilities in an infinite space, throughout infinite time, so if a "miracle" has happened once, it will happen again. And again.. and again..

There are some biochemists who strongly disagree with some of that. Carbon is basically the most "free loving" of all the elements, so if any kind of complex molecule, especially one capable of becoming a life form, is going to emerge, it will almost certainly be "carbon based".

Hydrogen is at the bottom of the periodic table, and oxygen is capable of forming highly energetic reactions.

The main thing is that most of the important chemicals to life are at the bottom of the table. Or near it. Metals are incompatible because they share their electrons in a loose kind of charge based sludge more often than forming specific covallent bonds.

I was taught that Silicon based life was possible based on the similar characteristics to how Carbon has 4 places that causes an attraction to its bonds being in the same series (up and down the Periodic Table of the Elements) and that it was possible because it was not a giant atom like the Germanium and the others down the series Indium and Thallium.

a reply to: eriktheawful

Fermi's so called paradox seems simple to answer to me with two facts:

1. We have only been leaking our presence for a relatively short amount of time with a very small signal strength.

2. We haven't been listening very well, with limited scan area and sensitivity.

The Breakthrough Listen Project is attempting to address 2 but it might be for the best that we don't address 1.

What a lovely thread.
I entirely agree with your OP and i like the pics, it's smooth and well presented.

The question of 'where are they' has been bounced around this forum in several threads, but was never in the topic of the OP, and yes i think it needs it's own thread.

It is a Fermi paradox of sorts, there are many answers like;

1 There are no aliens (highly unlikely), 2 there are aliens but not anywhere near earth (possible but unlikely) 3 there are aliens but they hide themselves very well and the gubmint doesnt know it (possible) 4 there are aliens here & in cahoots with da secret gubmint (also possible) 5 there are aliens everywhere contolling us, like in the film They Exist (highly unlikely IMO) 6 is that we are in fact children of said aliens and are part of some experiment (possible IMO)

I would like to point out a few things, for example the SETI project & radio signals in general.

Intergalactic (or even interstellar) travel can only be accomplished using FTL technology, and since it is faster than light, it would be a waste of time to use radio or any part of the spectrum since you could hop in your saucer & deliver a message personally to someone many light years away & be back in time to watch the Bold & the Beautiful.

Technically, i see no reason for this tech not to exist, and certainly any race a few hundred years ahead of us (let alone millennia!) would have it.

They may be asking the same question, as in "Where are these Humans who send these radio signals?, they've had plenty of time to develop FTL & come over to see us"

The technology of UFO's etc (and wether or not we have them) is as you say, for another thread, but i think it's important that peeps know what advanced tech is capable of, and does in fact provide answers (at least in theory) to many of the above questions.

So in answer to Fermi's 4th possible answer;

4) Considering the age of the universe, even if a trip to our planet took millions of years, there has been enough time for them to get here.

Yes i agree, and the only possible answer is that they were here, maybe a million years ago.
There may be some 'solid evidence' as you call it in so-called OOPARTS?
Wether aliens are here now, or are the ones here now from another race? Are there more races cruising around Sol 3? Anything is possible, and as i have often stated, the universe is more crazy than even a crazy person could think of!

Whichever way you see it, each answer raises yet more questions. Fascinating mind food.
Thanks!
I will read this later & get back to you guys, i have little time to spare but i like this kind of thread.

By the way, i go for Option 4: They must be here, or at least have been here in the past. I have seen photo's etc that very few have seen, i know, a pic or film is no solid evidence.
But it is yet another drop in an ocean of circumstantial evidence.

The Fermi paradox is the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence and high probability estimates, e.g., those given by the Drake equation, for the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations.

First, we should exclude potential civilizations in other galaxies, which must certainly exist from a probability perspective, but, for which it is likely no evidence will ever be detected due to the vast distances.

For potential civilizations within the Milky Way, isn't Occam's razor the applicable standard? In no particular order.
1. There are not any other civilizations within the Milky Way.
2. The distances between the civilizations are so vast, the potential for communication is extremely unlikely.
3. The laws of physics as we understand them are correct, nothing can travel FTL, there are not any shortcuts that can be used and the energy requirements, food consumption, radiation etc. make interstellar travel practically impossible.

For many years I have hoped to live long enough to hear about the validation of intelligent life on other worlds. I am sure that it must be there. But, the more I read and try to understand the technological hurdles of finding these potential civilizations and even communicating with them, much less traveling to them, I understand that it is a real long shot in the next 40 years or so I might expect to live. I am 52. For those in this thread that insist they are already here, those claims require extraordinary proof. I want to believe, but, there is so many charlatans trying to profit from outrageous claims, it is not possible to do so absent irrefutable proof.

For other potential explanations such as are civilizations short lived? Our planet with its geometrically growing population and carbon gas increases is heading down a precarious path that could be catastrophic within a century. To prevent the inevitable outcomes arising from these issues, drastic behavioral and political changes are going to be required. People are going to have to let go of their cherished religious beliefs, procreation tendencies and convenient transportation options. I have violated all these. Change will be hard. Civilizations arising that are intelligent, can get past these issues to have very long survival runs are likely very rare. That is point 1 of mine above. Point 2 is that even if another civilization gets past point 1, it may be that points 2 and 3 are insurmountable unless there is another civilization relatively close by, which is unlikely.

Those are the most obvious explanations. They are the logical explanations based on our current understanding of the galaxy, physics and observations.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: UpIsNowDown
Dude, ALL I suggested was that because we live on a planet with water maybe Aliens dont like water and therefore leave us alone, I appreciated your first lesson but now you are just taking 1 line of my posts and running in your own direction, maybe chasing your tail.

And because you make a suggestion we have to not react to it? The suggestion is, politely, somewhat unsound in its premise.

Hum.
Does't that make them "life as we do not know it."?

a reply to: intrptr

Just catching up on this topic and noticed the famous Belgian triangle picture. I hate to say it but I remember this picture was admitted to be a hoax by the one who took it following the UFO craze. He said he made a mockup with lights hanging on a wire. The 'swing' of the object combined with the slow shutter at night created the strange effect.

I'll check if I can find the article again and post if I do.

Not saying the Belgian UFO flap wasn't real as I was a witness myself (of the lesser known small wave), just the picture isn't.

On topic, my favorite quote on this subject:

Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying. - Arthur C. Clarke

Edit:
Here you go: www.hln.be...

It's in dutch, but you should be able to get the idea. I can help translate if you'd like.

Edit 2:
ATS topic and discussion whether the hoax was a hoax www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: eriktheawful

It's not an argument of whether or not what you saw was a UFO, or if it was a UFO that it is proof of advanced alien intelligence.

It's only proof of: we don't know what they are.

Knowing wha it is not (i.e., not from here), extrapolating what it has to otherwise be, based on a combination of my experience from teachings, observation and direct experience , all add up overall to 'knowing' what it has to otherwise be.

An intelligently guided craft , able to outperform any earth bound man made aircraft or weapons system, witnessed not only by me but by a number of close friends and some complete strangers who also saw the same thing.

Again, once you see one you know, that simple. Of course never having seen one, how could one Know?

The skepticism is destroyed in one minute, any skepticism. The event was that compelling, one of a kind, once in a lifetime, seared into memory sort of thing.

This removes all doubt. ( I hear you going ho hum).

Thats okay, noted you also said this thread wasn't about ETS and I concur,. my other posts have been about trying to explain the 'where are they' aspect of life elsewhere, how come we can't reliably detect it?

And all that wish mash is me trying to explain that we are not on the same 'plane' as they.

Like 2D people can't see up , the next dimension is invisible to us, therefore 'doesn't exist', scientifically speaking. If thats our only yardstick we automatically deny the truth.

originally posted by: SmilingROB
Does't that make them "life as we do not know it."?

Correct, which is not, as the Original Poster laid out, the topic of conversation.

a reply to: zeroPointOneQ

I hate to say it but I remember this picture was admitted to be a hoax by the one who took it following the UFO craze.

Hate to say it, but every image taken of UFO's is said to be fake at one time or other. Notice how despite reports there is no footage or one single image of UFs from Roswell, Rendlesham, Shag harbor, Chicago Ohare, Alaskan flight, Arizona 'lights' (discarding the later footage of flares), and a host of others.


This isn't by accident. Despite that Belgium wave was also witnessed by many, including authorities, tracked on radar, and locked onto by chase planes... (but the one photo is faked).

a reply to: eriktheawful

In some of the Solutions, we do have to make assumptions in order to discuss it. My next thread will be on Communication and Contact. In that thread in order to discuss it, we have to assume that yes, they are out there, but come up with reasons for the lack of signals, knowing about signals, and why we don't see some big alien battle cruiser in orbit around our plaonet.

At times there have been reports of 'mother' huge ships.

As far as lack of signals, why send Carrier Pigeons when you can use radio?

And why use radio when you can use thought? I'd call it hyperthought; like a hypercube, the 3D image of an object that can exist everywhere at once, the meaning behind "omnipresent". No man made receiver will ever detect that 'wavelength', even though it is all around and thru us.

a reply to: playswithmachines

4) Considering the age of the universe, even if a trip to our planet took millions of years, there has been enough time for them to get here.

Yes i agree, and the only possible answer is that they were here, maybe a million years ago.

Unless you consider the capture of a craft and crew at Roswell followed by the "Washington Flap" a few years later to be true for a moment, then that could mean it took them that few years from wherever they were to mount a rescue mission to get their crew and craft back...

a reply to: intrptr

I talk about aliens using thought to communicate in my other thread:

Fermi Paradox - Communications Problem