Hurricane Hitting Southeast US by July 18th

Tropical Depression Four formed in the Central Atlantic on Wednesday evening, but is struggling against dry air and is unlikely to survive long enough to threaten any land areas. At 11 am EDT Thursday, TD 4 was located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and was headed west-northwest at a speedy 21 mph.

Satellite images on Thursday morning showed that the circulation of TD 4 was weakening. The storm had a decreasing amount of thunderstorm activity, and the cloud tops of these thunderstorms were warming, showing that they did not extend as high in the atmosphere due to weaker updrafts supporting them. This weakening trend was likely due to dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which had wrapped into the circulation center from the east. Wind shear was favorable for development, a light 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were marginal for development, near 26.5°C (80°F)--about 1°F above the seasonal norm.
...
there is a brief opportunity for TD 4 to get its act together and become Tropical Storm Don. By Friday night, though, strong upper level winds out of the west will begin impacting the storm, bringing high wind shear of 15 – 25 knots through the weekend. The combination of dry air and high wind shear should be enough to destroy TD 4 by Monday.

www.wunderground.com...

a reply to: roadgravel

The GFS does show a strong wave perhaps forming into a storm next week

But way down south like 10-15n and South America

Similar to the previous storm that tried to develop down their earlier this year

a reply to: iWontGiveUP

Yes.

I can understand the disbelief by7 many here, and it goes without question that it is very early in the prediction cycle for this. However, science has been long striving to perfect the prediction of major weather systems. I for one love to push tech to it's edge, and well, here we are attempting to predict weather two weeks out.

I will be using this as a test run of the systems capabilities. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out and just how accurate it turns out to be.

We get them here all the time . Ive been through two that
destroyed my city. We have partys during them lol.
Everyone will hang out outside till the trees start coming down or
a power line snaps lol.

Sure it's a stretch to predict this far ahead but it doesn't hurt to be forewarned about a potential disaster

originally posted by: scraedtosleep
We get them here all the time . Ive been through two that
destroyed my city. We have partys during them lol.
Everyone will hang out outside till the trees start coming down or
a power line snaps lol.

Been through a few hurricane parties myself. After hurricane parties are awesome because everyone grills out the frozen meat in the freezer after the power goes out. Runs to the store to get beer and dry ice . helping each other clean up.

From cat6 and Jeff Masters

The next tropical cyclone threat in the Atlantic may well be a tropical wave expected to come off the coast of Africa on Saturday night.

Impressively, the 0Z Friday operational runs of both the GFS and European models showed this wave spinning up into a hurricane before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, July 15. However, only two of the 70 ensemble members of these models showed a hurricane forming in their 0Z Friday runs, and only about 20% of the members of the European model ensemble predicted that the African wave would even develop into a tropical depression.

The wave is predicted to take a mostly westward track at about 20 mph, and emerge far enough to the south (9° - 10° N) so that dry air from the Saharan Air Layer should not greatly interfere with development. However, the wave will be too close to the equator to allow the system to gain much spin by leveraging the Earth's spin, and the fast forward speed of the system may slow development.

www.wunderground.com...

A great comment thread below in this link for real weather geeks

a reply to: xmaddness
Well my 14 day weather outlook isn't usually that far off. Not that it ever includes hurricanes.
However I'm a big fan of the farmers almanac that predicts weather a year in advance.

Will be watching to see if this forms...if it does and follows the path they're predicting over and up Florida....that's gonna suck .

There is some indication the next wave moving off Africa could be a problem, one model even shows a major hurricane on top of Florida in about 2 weeks. Long range forecasts are very inaccurate, especially developing and then pin pointing a landfall from what is now nothing but a blob of thunderstorms moving off Africa.

Storm2k has a page devoted to long range models. It is generally frowned upon to link other forums ATS, however because storm2k is loaded with professional meteorologists and contains potentially property and lifesaving information, I think it is appropriate.

Long range Computer model discussion

a reply to: jrod

Yes this is still very much an active and ongoing event in the main GFS model.

There is a ton of discussion going on about this wave in many professional meteorological circles.

Bumping for posterity.

It's alive! Wow!

Very unusual for early mid July

I don't see any real power there.. loads of shear. Plus, the sands blowing off the Sahara are drying out the atmosphere. This dust inhibits development for a time. as of now, its nothing big.. this early, most storms take hard north turns in the mid-Atlantic and curve back east and die out.

originally posted by: iWontGiveUP
It's alive! Wow!

Very unusual for early mid July

Yes, that is the wave itself. It is supposed to stay south of where the dry air from the sahara is, and that will allow it to strengthen.

Wave is looking very healthy as it moves over water, which is its first test.

Image Loop of Wave

a reply to: xmaddness

Main page
www.ssd.noaa.gov...

All you want and then some...

And easy Atlantic rainbow
www.ssd.noaa.gov...

You never see these hurricane tragedies as FEMA false flag events which leads me to believe the false flags must take a long time to plan and get approvals for.

a reply to: Cauliflower

What like the corps blowing levees to direct the flow of water in 2005?

There's a lot that happens when "evacuations" that are mandatory are enforced

The good ones will never be told

a reply to: iWontGiveUP

I heard Ray moved to Lakewood, but he may have just been playing the fall guy for that one.

a reply to: Cauliflower

The OG himself

So he was called

And don't forget the snipers take about the looters

Even heros tell tales sometimes