Hurricane Hitting Southeast US by July 18th

If this is true I wonder if the rocket that was sent up from VA was gathering information on how to steer the storm. Just saying
a reply to: xmaddness

Kermit and miss piggy monitor

Gonzo does the high altitude drops

Annnnnnd here she comes.



GFS Runs to July 18-20th

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

You forgot to add this bit of information in your post.

Formation chance LOW 0%

originally posted by: crappiekat
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

You forgot to add this bit of information in your post.

Formation chance LOW 0%

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Again, we are looking 10 days out.

Ask yourself why would the NHC even bother if it had 0 chance?

Because they know it has potential to grow over the next 10 days.

The GFS keeps showing a strong hurricane approaching Florida in 8-10 days. There might OP might be right.

weather.unisys.com...

The GFS has backed off now, the NHC has dropped the tropical wave as an invest.

It appears that the tropical threat is low for now. This is good for me as I am supposed to sail up Florida's east coast starting this weekend.

As always it is important to pay attention as a system can spin up over night.

So it looks like the wave may be spinning up after all. It was pushed way back do to a large amount of dry saharan air above it, but it may have cruised below it just enough to survive.

It appears it will be taking a more southerly track than expected as well.

In any case, the GFS predicted this 16 days out, which is pretty remarkable if you ask me.

Lets see what it does now.

Annnnnnnd Tropical Storm Don has formed from our African Wave.

a reply to: xmaddness
Annnnnnnd... tomorrow's the 18th.

originally posted by: LogicalGraphitti
a reply to: xmaddness
Annnnnnnd... tomorrow's the 18th.

If you had actually READ the FIRST SENTENCE of the FIRST POST before feeling the need to be justified and correct, you would have seen that from the VERY FIRST POST, TWELVE DAYS AGO, the date was adjusted to July 21st.

The mere fact that the Global Forecasting System was even REMOTELY close to predicting a hurricane, nearly TWO WEEKS AGO is an AMAZING FEAT OF SCIENCE.

Some people are so blinded by their own need for being right and feeling vindicated, that they cannot even stand back and appreciate the sheer genius of the scientists and engineers who have poured countless hours, days, weeks, and years into this model in order to better protect people across the world.

Grats sir for completely missing the entire point of all of this.

a reply to: xmaddness

As mentioned, I live a stones throw away from the waters of the Gulf of Mexico in Texas; watch these things, year in and year out for decades. Ridden a few smaller storms out but bugged out on the big ones like Ike (which was huge).

The depression that may form (40%) in to a storm off Africa right now looks as though all the conditions are right for it to spin off into the Atlantic.

TS Don has me more concerned, if it keeps it west movement it will fall apart but; those that reach that region tend to curve north toward Jamaica and into the Gulf. Any northern change in course is not a good thing for us here in Texas and Louisiana.

And to your point, yes these models are getting better and better.

mg

The OP date is gone. A hurricane hitting the SE US isn't much of a risky prediction given history.

the date was adjusted to July 21st.

Try a couple more adjustments and bingo.

originally posted by: roadgravel

the date was adjusted to July 21st.

Try a couple more adjustments and bingo.

That date was adjusted two weeks ago.


Additionally, I am not a psychic. I do not claim to be a psychic. I am not predicting this. This is science predicting this. This is forecasting technology predicting this.

I am not sure why people are so quick to "OP IS WRONG AND STUPID DUH".

Clearly you guys are missing the point of all of this.

sigh

a reply to: xmaddness

I haven't said the OP is stupid. It seems to be a guess based on a reasonable probability. Once the factors for a storm exist then the models do make pretty good predictions.