posted on Apr, 23 2017 @ 10:32 AM
Even if the polls are extraordinarily mistaken, Le Pen can't win and will likely be severely beaten in the 2nd round.
The media have been running this cheap scare story for months and I am glad it's coming to an end.
Let's look at it.
She's credited around 25% in the first round, it might be well under her final score tonight, this I don't know but she'd need 40% to have a chance to
win the second round and the difference is enormous.
Based on past elections, the Front National typically doesn't grow much from 1st to 2nd round. For exemple, in 2002, when her father reached the 2nd
round in the Presidentials, he went from 16.86% to 17.79% one-on-one with Chirac who won by more than 80%, a banana republic result.
The Front National has 2 representatives out of 577 elected at the lower house, a record high for them in two-rounds, 2 out of 348 at the upper house,
their firsts ever. They can't win in two-round systems because all the voters gang up against theirs, they have no political allies.
Le Pen needs much much more than what is forecast in the polls to have any chance of winning and the best she does in the 1st round, the more voters
will move their butt in 2 weeks to stop her. No chance of winning but her "good" result is of concern.
Further proof that the media doesn't really consider her victory is that they don't really dig into the situation it will lead to and the OP has no
insight either. General elections will be held in june, even if the FN does a hundred times better they usually do (200 representatives, inthinkable),
they still won´t have a majority and France will be ungovernable, a deeper political crisis than Spain or Belgium. Nobody can say where it could go
from that point, even civil war isn't out of the cards. This is the kind of situation some groups may want in Europe. It is not going to happen this
time but if it happened, France leaving or not the EU would be the least concern really.