Set to blow? Supervolcano Campi Flegrei reawakening near Naples, could hit 500,000 people

youre welcom so nice of you :-).a reply to: tigertatzen

originally posted by: tigertatzen
I got chills everywhere when I saw you had typed about the tremor earlier. They haven't gone away.

Yeah well, they say it's just hydrothermal tremor, meaning it is low level tremor being generated by steam (from water). But keep in mind that's what they are assuming from the technical characteristics of the tremor analysis. What if they're wrong and it's magmatic? Huh?

The problem is, how is it that tremor, even hydrothermal tremor, has been detected? Increased heat from below. The degassing and increased heat they are experiencing is coming from magma that is getting hotter near the surface, to cause steam that is so hot that it creates tremor. And I just dug up cumulative seismicity records, and they are going up, up and further up, per year. In 2012 they had to change the alert level to yellow when ground deformation was so rapid it freaked everybody out.

The critical thing to understand here is that this study is suggesting that for the type of magma that is below Flegrei, and some of that is assumption, cause they are not entirely sure- what they are saying is that once it reaches a critical point, it sets in motion a positive feedback loop of rock breakage and rising magma events that starts to snowball. And causes the volcano to go critical. What irks me though is that they will continue to sit on this until the very end- and by then the fat lady will have sung before anyone even makes it to the theater.

The responsible thing to do is to start a long term relocation project, now. Before they have too much blood on their hands.

a reply to: Bobaganoosh

Ok, I need to do some reading about solar minimums. Any links to a crash course?? Meanwhile, I'll also read your link in its entirety.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

That is horrifying...how can they sit on something like that?? All those innocent people. I don't recall who posted the digital recreation of Pompeii a while back, but I watched that thing several times, and it was...I can't even describe how that made me feel. All those people...

a reply to: tigertatzen

It is not the sole responsibility of the volcanologists. There is ample information out there on this, especially for those in Italy living near, or in it. If you are going to insist on living in a supervolcano, then don't come cryin when it kills you. That's just from Life 101. Never trust your life to a science that is only right 50-60% of the time. Ok, maybe 70, but that'd be pushing it.

4.4 millions in Napels....trapt as rats.if she goes.... evacuation is hard couse al the roads will be destroyed of the EQ 's on forehand....a reply to: tigertatzen

a reply to: tigertatzen

Where to start.

There are five links under "What is space weather", near the top of the page. The first and last links are a primer, but the juicy bits are behind a paywall at The Observers.

Adapt2030 is also very informative on YouTube. He constantly posts graphs showing correlating disasters of history with solar minimums.

It's all fascinating stuff, and I do believe that they are on the right track, though some information is still speculative.



We are living the pink line. Every subsequent elevenish year solar cycle is weaker than the last. In my opinion, this information is key to cutting through the "narrative" of climate change and understanding the real causes.

Ugh I live in Italy, and sadly the population of that area would not be provided with any organized plan prior to the disaster ..
In Italy it's up to the individual to fight for themselves (in every circumstance).
What makes my heart sink even more is that Napoli has a fairly high percentage of people living in the poverty line.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

I guess I already know all of that, and it is indeed life. It's just horrible. And even more so because it is a real, earthly event...not some distant possibility. I just read about the year without a summer. Everyone should read that. It is quite sobering.

a reply to: Bobaganoosh

Thank you, this is awesome of you. I shall go dive in!

a reply to: ressiv

That is awful. Even more awful that they surely know they are trapped. I'm not sure I could live like that. Sitting on top of a bomb.

yep ...other supervolcanos are quite isolated.....guess its human nature to live on dangerous grounds houses on riverbeds ...ect...
ofcourse if there is not much space to live youre take the chance and think wishfulll
and another fact will be that in general humans think "that will never happen to us "
ofcourse if you mention "supervolcano " you think of yellowston ore toba.... not campi flegrei ore lagerfeld in Germany ...
hope the Italian gov. takes it serious and not focus to much to the banking crisis there....a reply to: tigertatzen

Not sure if these links are of any use or have anything different in them.
My Italian is a bit rusty.

www.ov.ingv.it...
sismolab.ov.ingv.it.../last&area=Flegrei&rmenu=on

It is impossible to evacuate Naples area in 10 days and probably even not in month or more.

South of Balkan, Greece, Turkey and ME would be uninhabitable in hours or days ... possibility of massive tsunami in western Mediterranean ... on coasts lives tens of millions of people ...


BTW Rome area is only 180 Km apart and even this is not safe distance. It is impossible to evacuate 1/4 of Italy.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Hey TA,

It is worth remembering that none of this means an eruption will happen, just that signs are increasing it may. And even if it does, it doesn't necessarily mean super eruption.

Also worth remembering that the Phlegrian Fields were showing all of these signs before Vesuvius erupted in AD79. So it could be Vesuvius, it could be nothing, it could be a minor eruption....or it could be a super eruption.

Looking at all the activity in Italy over the last few years, i am starting to wonder if a hot spot has broken through to Italy. It is not just new activity at Etna and Stromboli, there are the new vents at Colla Albini outside Rome (right by the airport), there are signs from Vesuvius, there is increased activity at Campi Flegri and there are numerous earthquakes. All in all, it points to an uptick in tectonic activity in already tectonically active zone.

a reply to: ressiv

Good points, i am completely aware of Laacher See in Germany but even i keep forgetting about it!

A super volcanic eruption at Campi Flegri would completely overshadow the eruptive power and discharge of Thera / Santorini - and that caused civilisational collapse around the Mediterranean and Near East.l

originally posted by: Flavian
Also worth remembering that the Phlegrian Fields were showing all of these signs before Vesuvius erupted in AD79.

Oh? Very interesting. I never knew they had GPS, extensive gas monitoring and analysis, extensive seismic monitoring, thermal monitoring, gravity anomaly detection, magnetic anomaly detection and all that... in 79 AD. Wow. Those Romans were surely ahead of their day, by, uhhh, what.... nearly 2000 years? So what history book is that in?



Lol. Look, I get it that only too often does the boy cry wolf. The problem is, one of these days a real wolf is going huff and puff and REALLY blow the house down. For real. All the signs are there. So any day now. Any year now. Any decade now. No one knows. I'm just glad I don't live in it.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Well clearly they didn't. What they did have was written records of an increase in gas emissions, inceases in seismic acitivity and ground deformation, etc, etc. There are records (in other writings) of letters from residents to relatives in other parts of Italy in the run up to preceding years, as well as the other better documented sources. Of course, to know a lot of this you actually have to have an interest in history and to read ancient sources.......rather than rely on modern scientific data (because obviously nothing was known before modern times)

What they didn't have was an understanding of how it all connected.

ETA:

I am also glad i don't live there. The last thing the world needs at the moment is a super eruption on top of all our other problems.

a reply to: Flavian

Those observations are interesting only if you have some basic knowledge of processes beneath.

This part of world was at its cultural peak when Vesuvio buried Pompey. There was cultivated tradition of something like "empirical science".

Still you can not compare it to tens of years of analyzed datasets from various instruments around globe. And tens of years of heated scientific discussion, hundreds of hypothesis, tens of theories. I know almost nothing about this but it started to be something settled 30 years ago.

It is bit similar to archaic astronomical observations. They are interesting only if you have working hypothesis to test it on old data.

This is very interesting and I really hope nothing comes of it, but it does tie in with a thread that was posted a few days ago.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Essentially the dried blood of Saint Januarius failed to liquefy in a ceremony in Naples, Italy, on Saturday, according to a report in Italy's La Stampa, heralding disaster for next year.

I know, I know, a lot of superstitious nonsense right?