Set to blow? Supervolcano Campi Flegrei reawakening near Naples, could hit 500,000 people

a reply to: JanAmosComenius

I do agree but the point i was making was that a lot of these things also happened before the Pompeian eruption of Vesuvius.

So, whilst we know there is a super volcano there that is still active, none of the signs are NECESSARILY signs of a super eruption. They could be but equally it could be an indication that Vesuvius is ready for a major eruption. Either way, not a good place to be if either happen. That said, give me a major Vesuvius eruption over one at Campi Flegri any day of the week.

The latest reports and hypothesis show that super eruptions tend to occur when there is a dome collapse within a caldera. So even volcanic eruptions at Campi Flegri are not necessarily going to be super eruptions. In fact, the majority of eruptions at super volcanoes are not super volcanic eruptions (hence the investigations and conclusions about dome collapses).

Beyond CGI, i genuinely have no desire to see one in action. It would completely change our world.

a reply to: Flavian

I agree with you. Area is doted by volcanoes and sits on complicated tectonic corner ... Who knows.

originally posted by: ScreamingNinjas
It's the end of the World

And I feel fine.

JanAmosComenius:

Area is dotted by volcanoes, and sits on complicated tectonic corner. Who knows?

Indeed it is 'dotted' by volcanoes, 29 in all, stretching from south-west of Sicilly curving upwards from Scilly following the western coastline of Italy with the bay of Naples being 3/4s of the caldera, then onto the land of Italy, dotting further northwards up to Rome.

The whole area from south-east Spain (taking in Italy and all the islands in the Tyrrhenian Sea) to Greece sits on the Eurasian plate subducting beneath the African plate, so not only is it prone to volcanicity, it is also prone to earthquakes. Hardly surprising then at intervals, various complex systems of volcanoes unzip. Italy actually has 3 or 4 caldera systems, smaller than the Naples caldera, consisting of only a few connected craters.

Campi flegrei consists of 24 craters, most of which are underwater, so if this system was to suddenly blow with force (up to VEI7) then the potential for tsunamis is considerable. Due to the subduction activity, one can expect earthquakes to cause tears deep in the rock to allow magma to push to the surface at the weaker points. Recent earthquakes in Italy could have caused such issues, hence the gaseous out breaks at Campi Flegrei.

The worse scenario would be for the whole of the Naples caldera to unzip cataclysmically which would of course re-shift and re-shape the Italy coastline, sending tsunamis to Spain, Greece, and along the north African coastline. All this attendant to the ash blown into the atmosphere, and the devastation it would wreak to Italy, and especially Naples and Sicilly. Of course, it all depends on how long it would erupt for? Anything beyond three days would be quite dire indeed.

a reply to: Metallicus

Well , didn't you notice that the climate is changing politically and naturally.
We only have to wait which blows first..

Edgar Cayce had some interesting predictions about Italy's Volcano's. He connects them to an Earthquake disaster in California just shortly after a major volcanic blow out in Italy.

heavenawaits.wordpress.com...

I was just about to book my holiday in Italy next year,excited that for the first time ever I'd get to see some active volcanoes such as Etna,Vesuvius and maybe even Stromboli if I've got time.I've got a couple of days in Naples planned,so will be keeping a VERY close watch on any activity here.I camped in Yellowstone this year,which is the closest I've got to any volcanoes so far.

Looking at Google Earth,I see an area marked Phlegraean Fields which appears to be white mud which is identified as the caldera.Is this the actual first part to go if it does blow as I see a massive tree lined crater about a mile or so to the north of this one?

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Nah

The one to blow will be the US one

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Hi TA,
About 3 years back I was following some chap who's name eludes me right now that works for USGS as he would post on a volcano site/forum I was following. He was based out in Italy and his main job was Etna (he lived very close) but he was also there to monitor not so much earthquakes but Italy's volcanoes.
He was German if memory serves and he was a very approachable chap. I have had a change in laptop since then and have lost the links. I will try and have a good look around in my memory hall and see if I can come accross his name for you.

Also, before all this interest in Campei flared up a couple of years ago, and having spent the millenium in the area, I always felt that if a Super was going to blow anywhere in the world it would be Campei. Your post is very worrysome

I'll get back to you as soon as I find the chaps name.
Rainbows
Jane

Saw Ressiv's thread on this and wasn't too terribly concerned until I saw TA then made a thread.

Diving in:

Using a geostatistical approach the spatial structure of the degassing area, as well as the total amount of released CO2, have been defined. The area is characterized by a well defined diffuse degassing structure interested by the release of deeply derived CO2 (Solfatara DDS), which geometry is strongly controlled by volcanic and tectonic structures. The extension of the Solfatara DDS varied in the time with two major enlargements, the first consisted in its doubling in 2003-2004 and the second in further enlargement of about 30% occurred between 2011 and 2012.
...
The comparison of the CO2 flux data with the chemical composition of the main fumaroles suggests that the variation of in the DDS extension is correlated to processes of condensation of the vapor plume feeding the Solfatara manifestation accompanied by an overall increase of the temperatures, caused by the arrival of increasing amounts of magmatic fluids

Long time series of soil CO2 degassing measurements at Solfatara of Pozzuoli (Campi Flegrei, Italy)

Model results indicate that PDCs from VEI

a reply to: angelchemuel

Ha! Thank goodness I don't have dementia yet!

I tracked the man down by tracking a chap called Erik Klemetti first. Found him on Twitter, and he has already Twittered about Campei, and 'tagged' Boris Behncke in it! .
It's Boris you need to contact!!! Here's his Twitter page...
twitter.com...

Bur Erik is also one smart man
Hope that helps.
Rainbows
Jane

PS Eriks Twitter page and as you can see he just posted the link to Boris just 3 hours ago. If it has Eriks attention...then it is serious....
twitter.com...

Italy is a lot different geologically than Yellowstone.

Yellowstone is a hot spot, like a wound in the earth. It travels as the continent drifts (it created the Snake River valley in Idaho). The other hot spot I know of is the Hawaiian chain. As the plate moves, new volcanoes form and old volcanoes cool down.

Italy is at the intersection of two plates. They recently had two earthquakes and they are surrounded by volcanoes.

Naples is surrounded by volcanoes, including Vesuvius.

Is there a possibility that the supervolcano shares magma chambers with the other active volcanoes in the area? Those volcanoes could relieve the pressure.

originally posted by: TrueAmerican
So after a bit of checking, this is the best I can do for now, which is a real time webicorder plot of seismicity at one station, STH, which is sitting right in the middle of the caldera. For those that want to keep an eye on this and help me out, bookmark this link:

station STH.

Of course you all know I want the real time raw data feed so I can run spectro on it, like I do at Yellowstone. Spectro tells immediately what the heck is going on, including if any tremor, and lets me know immediately what is seismicity and what is not. But I just don't think that is available. Not to us lowly public, that is. But I will keep trying.

if it pertains to the Earth's forces in action I'm the number one guy and I'll tell you anything. Please ask.

a reply to: elysiumfire

And all the super heated water...




I was thinking this was all just MSM hype since this all started with a Reuters story five or so years ago. Perusing science sites and there is no recent mention of this there. So I was just going to write this off. But this is a geological time scale. And there were those earthquakes in central Italy this past year. There is a statistical relationship called the power law where two items are related and a change in one results in a proportional change in the other. So if the earthquakes central Italy had are related to plate tectonics being active... now you got my attention and I am now concerned.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

one of the most densely populated places in the world? Are house prices really that good in an area that has a super volcano nearby, it's Christmas we are always guaranteed a disaster somewhere, not had a supervolcano in a while...

a reply to: tigertatzen

Campi has been quiet for a long, long time. I think a lot of people sort of assume it's half dead.

originally posted by: ressiv
thank you....only proofed that ATS is focused to certain posters
loll no hard feelings...:-)) TA is much moore expert than I...
only pleased that the Campi is now taking serious...!
go on TA
a reply to: tigertatzen

Don't mistake my response.

Thing is that the media periodically publishes big, scary pieces on all the supervolcanoes. So, just seeing a piece on Campi didn't really make it real. There needs to be more going on in the analysis to really make it serious.

Half the volcanos in the world give off signs they may be about to explode and then settle. So while this makes things look a little more serious than the usual order of media scare piece, I am still at the level of keeping an eye on it. There isn't much prepping we can do financially anyhow at this point.

originally posted by: ressiv
yep ...other supervolcanos are quite isolated.....guess its human nature to live on dangerous grounds houses on riverbeds ...ect...
ofcourse if there is not much space to live youre take the chance and think wishfulll
and another fact will be that in general humans think "that will never happen to us "
ofcourse if you mention "supervolcano " you think of yellowston ore toba.... not campi flegrei ore lagerfeld in Germany ...
hope the Italian gov. takes it serious and not focus to much to the banking crisis there....a reply to: tigertatzen

Also, when you think of supervolcano, you think of a catastrophic even that is so rare that it may have only happened at most once or twice in all of human history on this planet, too.

So really, are your odds of living on the bomb all that bad?

a reply to: EightAhoy

Except for the fact that globally geothermal heating, and seismic events have been increasing in frequency. Not to mention the weakening of Earth's magnetic field which all point to an increase in unrest in Earth's crust and core.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

How serious would this be for the rest of Europe, I mean what can we expect when this thing goes off?