Set to blow? Supervolcano Campi Flegrei reawakening near Naples, could hit 500,000 people

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Baddah Boom... Biiiig Baddah Boom...

ETA: LeeLoo.. Fifth Element... no one?

Just read the results of the study on Nature, and looked at all the figures and charts. I'm a poorly educated layperson with very little geological (much less vocalnology) understanding. But even I can read a trend line and know when it's going up precipitously. The temperatures, out-gassing, and "local seismic crisis" (which I can only guess means very localized seismic activity connected to progressive deformation?) are all increasing steadily and have been for years. And that harmonic tremor (while not present in the study) I also know from past big news volcanoes is not an encouraging sign.

Putting my "since I'm a layperson and don't understand the dynamics and have nothing to compare this to so I'll ask skeptical questions" hat on:

1) How does this rate of increase in all those respective areas compare to other active caldera zones that have increased before but then declined back to the previous baseline?

2) Without anything to compare it to or any context, I would also ask: are those pressures, temperatures, rates of local seismic crises, etc. ... in layman's terms... a lot? As in, for this particular caldera system, are they approaching levels of real concern given the physical properties and "shape" of things if you will for this particular system? Or do we only know that they're going up?

But yeah as I said, even I can see this probably isn't good... and that sooner or later if it continues increasing, that pressure has to go somewhere.

Peace.

How I love the smell of fresh fear mongering in the morning.

a reply to: AceWombat04

You want some comparisons? Ok. Read 'em and weep:

You know one of the biggest reasons that I have not been that concerned over Yellowstone erupting anytime soon? It's because Jake always said that in order to erupt, the actual melt ratio would have to be near 50% or higher. This is the ratio of actual melted, molten magma, that is eruptible, residing in the chamber(s), as opposed to more crystallized, hardening magma, and already hardened rock. At YS, melt is estimated at between 10-15%. And Jake himself has said that he thinks YS is pretty much finished.

So in doing more searching on Flegrei, look at this:

Based on a high resolution seismic reflection data set, we investigated the deep structure of the volcano. Here we show that seismic wave amplitude variations with distance from the radiating source provide clear evidence for large amplitude seismic reflections from the top of an extended supercritical fluid-bearing rock formation at about 3,000 m and of an about 7,500 m deep, 1,000 m thick, low velocity layer, which is associated with a mid-crust, partial melting zone beneath the caldera. The modeling of magma properties based on measured seismic velocities indicates a relatively high melt percentage (in the range 80–90%). These new data suggest that a large magmatic sill is present well within the basement formations, which is possibly linked to the surface through a system of deep fractures bordering the caldera. The lateral extension and similar depth of the melt zone observed beneath the nearby Mt.Vesuvius support the hypothesis of a single continuous magma reservoir feeding both of these volcanoes.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com...

So not 50%, not 60%, but a whopping melt ratio of 80-90%. That is over the top and presents an unmistakable danger. And the other signs are bearing that out. The increased heat, emissions, deformation, and everything. The sukka is gonna blow. How soon no one can know. It still could be thousands of years. Or it could be tomorrow.

People who live there can turn a blind eye if they want to, but they will pay for it with their lives. Smarter people will move. It's just that simple.

This story grabbed my attention because a famous 600 year old miracle that has been recurring on a regular basis in Naples, the liquification of Saint Januarius blood, did not happen on December 16 this year as expected:

Bad Omen: Blood of St. Januarius Fails to Liquefy

The miracle of the liquefaction of St. Januarius' blood, patron of Naples, takes place three times a year: on the Saturday preceding the first Sunday of May (the day of the translation of the Saint's relics), on September 19 (the day of his martyrdom) and on December 16 (the anniversary of the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius in 1631, when the lava stopped at the doors of Naples, one of the most remarkable miracles manifested through St. Januarius' intercession).

my bold

...the people of Naples have witnessed in its history that when the miracle doesn't happen, it's often a premonition of evil. Some of the occasions where the blood didn't liquefy in the last few decades were: 1980, when a terrible earthquake hit South Italy; 1973, when Naples suffered an outbreak of cholera; 1939, when World War II broke out; 1940, when Italy joined the War; 1943, when Italy was occupied by the Nazis. And throughout the centuries the absence of the astonishing phenomenon has been precedent to religious persecutions, eruptions of the Mount Vesuvius, earthquakes, revolutions, wars and the deaths of kings, archbishops and Popes. Rarely the liquefaction happens outside of the three traditional dates.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Yikes, and that was in 2008.

Here's an interesting paper:

We report evidences of active seabed doming and gas discharge few kilometers offshore from the Naples harbor (Italy). Pockmarks, mounds, and craters characterize the seabed. These morphologies represent the top of shallow crustal structures including pagodas, faults and folds affecting the present-day seabed. They record upraise, pressurization, and release of He and CO2 from mantle melts and decarbonation reactions of crustal rocks. These gases are likely similar to those that feed the hydrothermal systems of the Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvius active volcanoes, suggesting the occurrence of a mantle source variously mixed to crustal fluids beneath the Gulf of Naples. The seafloor swelling and breaching by gas upraising and pressurization processes require overpressures in the order of 2–3 MPa. Seabed doming, faulting, and gas discharge are manifestations of non-volcanic unrests potentially preluding submarine eruptions and/or hydrothermal explosions.

A little further down, they talk about "acoustic gas flares:"



Here is a map of their dispersal pattern:



Could these produce the low frequency hydrothermic tremor?

yucking fikes! And I'm going to italy in a month... staying right across the bay from this volcano in Sorrento. Oh boy, let the festivities begin!

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Okay, yes... that sounds exceptionally disturbing then. I pray we're somehow wrong... as I'm always and forever open to being. But at least to my layman's conceptual grasp of the matter based on what you've posted and they've published... it seems a more concerned approach to public policy there is in order.

Peace.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

My third request to have my original question answered please.It'd be easy to get the impression I'm being ignored when this happens as it seems that everyone else get's answered except for me.

originally posted by: Imagewerx
I was just about to book my holiday in Italy next year,excited that for the first time ever I'd get to see some active volcanoes such as Etna,Vesuvius and maybe even Stromboli if I've got time.I've got a couple of days in Naples planned,so will be keeping a VERY close watch on any activity here.I camped in Yellowstone this year,which is the closest I've got to any volcanoes so far.

Looking at Google Earth,I see an area marked Phlegraean Fields which appears to be white mud which is identified as the caldera.Is this the actual first part to go if it does blow as I see a massive tree lined crater about a mile or so to the north of this one?

a reply to: Imagewerx

All the bay is caldera partially submerged. Magma chamber beneath is maybe same as is feeding Vesuvio.

Two calderas to be precise:

WIKI

a reply to: Imagewerx

Well first of all, I don't have all the answers. I can't even get raw data out of the place. And plus, what you're asking is about as impossible as asking when it will blow. The best scientists don't know. So let me get this straight. You want me to tell you where it's going to blow so that you can plan your vacation accordingly, and perhaps just barely escape any catastrophe? R U serious?

There is new research coming out though where they are developing real time ground deformation analysis, that supposedly was used to predict a location for the 2008 eruption of Etna. I suppose you could become a scientist, attain and understand that technology, and then you could plan your vacation far enough away from the determined, probable vent. Like that's going to help if there is another VEI 7? What happened to a good old vacation in Tahiti? The beach, the sand, the sun, pretty girls.... But no, you like to live dangerously and visit volcanoes. Ok. Be my guest.

a reply to: bronco73

Sorrento is beautiful! Enjoy
Rainbows
Jane

Kill or be killed.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

The other side of the doom coin is that below the earth's crust, all magma is one homogeneous layer...if it blows, it might take some of the pressure off Yellowstone and other super volcanoes around the world, and quieten those down, putting off their even worse eruptions for a few more millennia.

Not great for Naples, but it could be a sheep in wolf's clothing.

Campi Flegrei and Yellowstone are both calderas, but their geographical positions provide for different scenarios if they erupted. Yellowstone is on land and near centrally located in America, thus the processes involved in generating eruptible magma is different to that at Campi. Campi magma is generated by the subduction of the Eurasian plate beneath the African plate, which is not only always generating pressure and heat melting the rock, but causing earthquakes as well.

I should think that magma being generated beneath Italy would always find horizontal flow tubes through cracks as it 'moles' its way through already heated rock, rather than drive vertically towards the surface due to the constant motion of the plates constantly creating cracks in the rock. On the odd occasion, horizontal flow tubes become blocked by earthquakes collapsing the flow tubes and then pressure builds driving the forces through the paths of least resistance, and sometimes this least resistant pathway would be vertical towards the surface.

It might be that recent earthquakes in Italy have blocked horizontal flow tubes and pressure has driven magma upwards? One way to monitor potential eruptibility would be to monitor the velocity of the escaping gas at the vents? I should think increasing pressure from below forcing magma vertically would increase the escape flow of the plumes from the vents. Another earthquake could unblock or create new horizontal flow tubes through which rising magma could escape into, thus reducing the force of pressure vertically. To be honest, this is the scenario we want, because if there is no release of the pressure, magma will continually drive upwards to the surface and potentially cause an eruption.

Campi Flegrei is on land close to the bay, so if it does erupt, it will be a land-based eruption, and that means a lot of ash into the atmosphere. As long as the eruption (if it does erupt) remains at Campi, I doubt it will be above VEI5 or 6, which are moderate eruptions. However, depending on the amount of magma is available, and the force of the pressure pushing it upwards, will determine the size of the eruption, and for how long it will continue to erupt.

A VEI8 eruption does not bear thinking about. It would be a cataclysmic event of monstrous proportions, and highly damaging not only to Italy and the immediate surrounding area for thousands of miles, it would affect all of Europe and the North African coastline. If the whole of the caldera was to unzip we would at some point in the eruption see the effect of the deep layers of rock (the ceiling of the magma chambers) landslide into the mantle, which would cause a tsunami that would easily dwarf Japan's tsunami, with waves reaching anywhere between 100 to 300 metres high, and perhaps even higher than this conservative estimate, radiating out in all directions. The devastation along the coastlines would be phenomenal.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

a reply to: elysiumfire

Thanks for that.

My simplistic minds eye view was a cross section of the Earth, the magma under the crust probing weak spots 'looking' for a way to vent and create new land....if it breaks through during a super eruption, pressure would lessen in other areas being 'probed'.

Thanks for putting that to bed.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Im gonna say something, (my mind is all over the place these days.) But i ran into this story that may relate to the topic.



Apparently there is large amounts of energy or gamma ray hitting the earth. The youtuber: Secureteam10 mentioned it could be the cause of earthquakes or even triggering volcanic activity. He related the story to 2004's gamma ray.

Check this out:

on December 27, 2004 an invisible burst of energy the equivalent of half a million years of sunlight shone on Earth. Many orbiting satellites electronics were zapped and the Earth's upper atmosphere was amazingly ionized from a massive hit of gamma ray energy. Source

What else happened in 2004?

The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was caused by an earthquake

I am not sure if they are related to one another, but there is one way to put the theory to the test. Currently there is an event taking place similar to 2004 gamma ray as the youtuber Secureteam10 mentioned.Watch out for earthquakes or volcanic activity suddenly rising.



They may relate to the topic in the OP, but it is something that I feel needs to be looked at. But it is a rare event happening right now.

a reply to: SoulSurfer

If external factors like gamma ray bursters are influential as you theorise, it might give us some warning to evacuate susceptible areas...but as you point out, we were hit by a massive GRB on 27 / 12 / 04, but (if connected) the Tsunami happened on the 26th.

a reply to: elysiumfire

"Campi Flegrei is on land close to the bay ... " That mud pit is not caldera. All craters you can see now are on place where caldera formed twice. Part of the caldera is under sea and as was mentioned earlier, seabed is pretty active there. It is possibly very bad scenario, because bay is shallow (tens of meters) - not enough to contain energy of eruption.

This map is centered over caldera. It is scalable with contour interval 10m. Its fascinating area.

a reply to: SoulSurfer

I was just connecting this this morning. I live in California so, I am paying attention. The last few days, everyone in my family has been tired. I feel like its an effort to move my arms or walk. I am wondering if this wave is putting pressure on California. And I do know there is a Cayce prediction that talks about Volcanic action in Italy that causes a massive quake in California.