My analysis of Electoral College 2016, Hillary gets over 270. What's yours?

a reply to: nobunaga

Right 1/3 of republicans who didn't vote for trump will now vote for him but only 1/10 of dems who didn't vote for Hillary will now vote for Hillary.

You don't see anything off about that?
You don't see your own dreams and wishes represented by your figures?

Hillary already has more than 80% of Bernie supporters now standing behind her. They expect that to top 90% by November.
That's the reality of the situation.

a reply to: Sillyolme

I thought it was more than that. Good to know, thanks.

a reply to: Sillyolme

Trump has four months to alienate voters, and he will. There are still plenty of people he can offend and belittle into not voting for him. Hard to woo the swing vote and the moderates when your campaign is based on "people who don't vote for me are losers" principles....

The problem for Trump is Clinton already has enough solid blue states that one or two battle ground states and she has the win. Trumps problems with the Mormons in Utah and Hispanics, African Americans, Women and educated whites in Georgia, Arizona and Kansas mean Trump has work to do in his own red back yard. Then trying to take all almost all the battle ground states and grab a blue one or two seems beyond the amount of money and organizations skills Trumps campaign have shown.

And the actual get out the vote ground game. Trump has almost now ground games in key states much less any others. And this is where losing GOP big name support will really hurt him. Clinton will have President Obama, Michelle Obama, President Clinton, VP Biden, Senator Warren, Senator Sanders and other popular party members all in different states as needed.

Trump has himself. His VP pick is not even all that popular in his own state. Christy is a national joke. And the few others supporting Trump are hasbins. This is where Trump could desperately use, Romney in Utah where he is popular, Rubio who is again popular in Florida, McCain who is popular in Arizona, and the Bush's and Cruz in Texas. And in Texas Trump has only a single digit lead over Clinton. A good ground game by the DNC and a poor one, with the Bush's and Cruz getting local GOP leaders to back off supporting Trump and Texas becomes a place that could flip. Not likely but, it is someplace that will require Trump to spend money that he should not have to and does not have.

And the other bad news for Trump is he is at his peak in polling. With the Email scandal fresh and the post Convention bounce this is as good as it gets. Clinton will get a good post convention bounce and it will be one big uphill struggle for Trump.

Very astute Mr. Spad....but one other caveat....

More things coming out about Hillary.

Assange has already stated this was just round 1 for Wikileaks. Something tells me he's going to save the best for last.

By the time Nov rolls around, who knows how many resignations would have happened? And I still think putting DWS on her staff was likely the dumbest move of an otherwise intelligent woman. I get WHY she did it, but it sends the wrong message to most of us.

Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania. Are you so sure?

originally posted by: Gazrok
Very astute Mr. Spad....but one other caveat....

More things coming out about Hillary.

Assange has already stated this was just round 1 for Wikileaks. Something tells me he's going to save the best for last.

By the time Nov rolls around, who knows how many resignations would have happened? And I still think putting DWS on her staff was likely the dumbest move of an otherwise intelligent woman. I get WHY she did it, but it sends the wrong message to most of us.

Both side are holding the best for later stuff. The problem is for Trump he has more scandals then can counted so the negative road will only lead to failure. He has to take things in new direction to have a chance. That should have been what the convention was about instead of the doom and gloom and divide GOP that it ended up being. Once Clinton gets her post convention bounce I just do not see Trump being able to make up for months of poor fundraising, ground staffing, GOP divisiveness and out outright hate of Trump by minorities and women.

a reply to: thesungod

Your welcome. 😊
Yeah the primaries were fifty separate elections with fifty sets of rules (plus the territories)
The general election is different.

a reply to: usernameconspiracy

And he doesn't need that long to do it.
It's hard to get behind a man who says the country I love is broken and dying.
It's hard to get behind a man who thinks our military is insufficient.
And he thinks we're stupid.
Remember Forrests mother saying . Stupid is as stupid does

I bet trump doesn't understand the phrase.

a reply to: MrSpad

Day two and the polls are already moving back to her.
She called Illinois, Arkansas, New York and D.C. home and they all went to her.
I live in swing state Virginia which in recent elections has been blue anyway. With Tim Kaine she locks up Virginia. And my congressman Bobby Scott is slated to move into Kaine's senate seat. Now I'm wondering who will take Scott's seat in the house. He's run unopposed for the last twenty years .

a reply to: Gazrok

You don't know that. Assange isn't exactly an upstanding honest citizen now is he? He should and someday will hang for his crimes. (Even if it's by lethal injection he will hang).
Remember back when everybody thought Guccifer had hacked her and I pointed out that he's a criminal and not to be believed. Turned out he was lying.
Let's not exalt Assange. He's a criminal just like Guccifer and he's a liar.

originally posted by: enlightenedservant
a reply to: thesungod

I was just messing with you.

Most of the people I know are pretty much split between Jill Stein and Hillary. Correction: most of the people I'm close to or that I'm on good terms with are split between those 2.

I have quite a few conservative "associates", former colleagues, and former friends that are stuck between Trump and Gary Johnson. I said "former" because I've been blocking them out a lot lately. The anti-Muslim and anti-African American talk has gotten so bad over the last year that they're burning bridges with me. That crap may be just rhetoric to them, but my family and I will have to deal with the actual repercussions if those suggestions become policy.

As for the OP, I'm firmly expecting a Hillary landslide. It might even be worse than Romney and McCain's dismal showings. Though the idiotic Democratic establishment almost seems to be trying to give it away withg their constant scandals and underhanded tactics.

Not a very good friend if you quit being friends over their political leanings. Thats extremely shallow man.

a reply to: MrSpad

Well said. The logistics are almost insurmountable for Trump. A candidate simply can't win a general election by only appealing to the right wing. The demographics have changed too much (Krazysh0t did a great thread on it sometime ago). But instead of trying to win over different demographics, Trump keeps doubling down on the attacks.

Ironically, if Trump were running against any Democrat other than Hillary, it would be even worse for him. Without support from the Repub candidates who are popular in their respective States, Trump would get even less support.

But Hillary is one of the few Democrats who's been demonized by the Republican power structure and their conservative base for decades. They impeached her husband almost 20 years ago and have been doing witchhunts against her ever since. She's so universally hated by the right wing that the "anti-Hillary" angle is the best chance Trump has of overcoming his nearly insurmountable logistical screwups.

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: enlightenedservant
a reply to: thesungod

I was just messing with you.

Most of the people I know are pretty much split between Jill Stein and Hillary. Correction: most of the people I'm close to or that I'm on good terms with are split between those 2.

I have quite a few conservative "associates", former colleagues, and former friends that are stuck between Trump and Gary Johnson. I said "former" because I've been blocking them out a lot lately. The anti-Muslim and anti-African American talk has gotten so bad over the last year that they're burning bridges with me. That crap may be just rhetoric to them, but my family and I will have to deal with the actual repercussions if those suggestions become policy.

As for the OP, I'm firmly expecting a Hillary landslide. It might even be worse than Romney and McCain's dismal showings. Though the idiotic Democratic establishment almost seems to be trying to give it away withg their constant scandals and underhanded tactics.

Not a very good friend if you quit being friends over their political leanings. Thats extremely shallow man.

That's easy to say when those "political leanings" directly affect my life but not yours. My Dad and his associates have helped build one mosque and are leading the building of another in a separate city. Right wingers protested and made a huge deal about the 1st mosque, and even held hearings and much more against it w/local politicians. And the 2nd mosque has been vandalized repeatedly, to the point that the FBI had to ask my Dad if he had received any threats and needed extra protection. Even local conservative groups have helped block the purchases of land for my Dad's projects, disrupt their interfaith meetings and projects, etc. Oh, the stuff about the 2nd mosque has all happened within the last 18 months or so and the current political environment is only making it worse.

I could go into more detail but there's no point. I don't have to be friends with anyone, much less everyone. And if I don't feel comfortable letting someone in my house or be around my nieces and nephews, I can't consider them "friends". And if someone wants me, my family, and my friends to have fewer rights than other demographics, we're open opponents. I may be many things, but being "2 faced" isn't one of them.

a reply to: enlightenedservant

Did the friends you have participate in those groups oppossing your family? If they didnt thats sucks. You call them out for being Bigoted but do the same yourself. Now IF they did directly do stuff to you sure then they werent friends but to drop them because they are of a mindset and didnt do anything to you is just wrong and hypocritical.

a reply to: Southern Guardian

Based on the latest polls and having trump lead or tied on them thus is how thr election would turn out based off them.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

However he got a bounce from the convention. The question is will Hillary??

a reply to: Southern Guardian

My prediction is Clinton wins by the same kind of landslide LBJ beat Goldwater by in 1964. Trump isn't a serious presidential candidate as the GOP farce of a convention showed. Also for the VP pick Trump picked a loyal solider who is obeying orders on behalf of his party. Pence adds no electoral appeal whatsoever to the Trump ticket.

originally posted by: yuppa
a reply to: enlightenedservant

Did the friends you have participate in those groups oppossing your family? If they didnt thats sucks. You call them out for being Bigoted but do the same yourself. Now IF they did directly do stuff to you sure then they werent friends but to drop them because they are of a mindset and didnt do anything to you is just wrong and hypocritical.

Actually yes they were. In fact, some of my false friends were a part of the very groups that protested the building of the 1st mosque in question and helped organize grassroots efforts against its construction and expansion. And that's after I and some of our other Muslim coworkers had built working relationship with them.

Like I said before, it's easy to say your rhetoric when those "political leanings" directly affect my life but not yours. Trump's policies would directly affect my life and the lives of my family and friends, so I hope he and similar politicians fail miserably. I've always been an open opponent of the far right wing. They're against virtually every policy I support, hence why I always vote as far left as I possibly can.

Though for the record, it doesn't matter if someone personally hurts me or not. If someone thinks me, my family, and my community should should have fewer rights or be profiled because of our beliefs or skin color, then we're open opponents anyway.

Thing is, none of Trumps scandals compare...so we simply don't care..

a reply to: enlightenedservant

Ahh I got it now. Well i did say if they were in on it they werent your friends. SO you were not being a hypocrite.
Sucks when people do that I know from experience.

If they are that insecure about their religon they obviously were not strong in their faith. I have friends with different political views that might effect me but i still keep them as friends. we still hang out have fun,but we agree to not discuss polotics ever.

I have to ask though.. How is trump reducing your rights? HE SPECIFICALLY SAID IMMIGRATION NEEDED to Stop temporarily. WHen there is a system in place1-2 yrs i guess then they will re open immigration. This isnt a un precedented event though. Immigrations has had numerous stoppages that even dems agreed with.
You are already here though and a citizen. as such any of your family overseas will most likely be granted access to the US if requested.

Trumps pandering to the right right now but if i know him he wont do that after he is elected.