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My analysis of Electoral College 2016, Hillary gets over 270. What's yours?

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posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 04:14 AM
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So I know there was an Electoral College Prediction thread back in 2012 so I figured I'd post a new one for 2016 (Could not find another thread on this). I thought I'd post my prediction for 2016 and justify the reasons why. I'd love to hear other predictions from other ATSers. Now I know we all have our bias... we're all politically slanted one way or another. I myself lean Liberal. I supported and still support Sanders in these elections. So there will probably be a perception that my prediction is biased. Regardless I will be making a case for why I feel the election result will go Hillary and I'd like to hear what others think. So here it goes:

Hillary gets over the 270 mark. End result: 331 to Trump 207.

Why?

Let us start with the States I believe Hillary will automatically lock down given their voting history. Below are the states that went blue in the last 6 presidential elections:

California
Connecticut
D.C.
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Total
242

Hillary automatically has 242 electoral college points locked up.

Pennsylvania will remain blue, as will Michigan and Wisconsin

Now the media have stated that the likes of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are going to be toss of states these elections. There's no indication at all that these States are going to toss ups come November. Pennsylvania in particular has been the State Republicans have been chasing for years now and it hasn't gone red, it still remains reliable blue. There's no indication of a major demographic shift to the GOP in Pennsylvania or the other mid western states. And before anybody here argues Trump is polling close to Hillary in those States, this may true but the same was true for McCain and Romney. Heck McCain at one point polled 44% to Obama 42% in Pennsylvania in 2008 in March and April. He was within 2 percentage points to Obama in July 2008:
www.realclearpolitics.com...

Romney as well, right behind Obama in Pennsylvania 2012 October,
www.realclearpolitics.com...

George Bush in 2004, was polling ahead regularly against Kerry in Pennsylvania but still lost the State (election conditions were in Bush's favour)
www.realclearpolitics.com...

Pence was added to the Trump ticket to give him a boost in the midwest but I don't see a way he'll make a difference. Lets not forget Ryan was on Romney's ticket and they still lost 47% to Obama's 51% in Wisconsin that year.

Let's not also forget, the GOP is more fractured now than it was in 2012 or 2008. There are a good number of voters, some Cruz voters and some voters who are neither either not voting or going Libertarian. I see Hillary not carrying over Sanders supporters (I can personally vouch) but I don't see this making as much of an impact. Trump was unable to get the majority of the total vote in the GOP with a total of 45%.

As a percentage of vote, Trump has scored less than all previous GOP nominees since the 1976 GOP primary elections

Now for the toss up states

Hillary wins New Hampshire. Clinton has been leading consistently there. No indications of a change.

Hillary wins Virginia. I call it now. This is thanks to Virginia native Kaine and the overall demographic shift in that State. Northern Virginia is a reliable blue section of that State alone. I don't see any changes here. This allows Hillary to cross over to 272. She wins.

Trump will keep a hold of Arizona and Georgia. I think he'll barely edge through and keep a hold of NC. All the other States, I see Hillary having the better chance at winning them.

I don't consider Colorado and New Mexico toss up States, they will remain reliably blue - pollsters appear to agree.
edit on 26-7-2016 by Southern Guardian because: (no reason given)




posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 04:39 AM
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Have you taken into account the rebel third party wave this time. Pretty much EVERYONE I have talked to is talking no D or R.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 04:46 AM
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a reply to: thesungod

Good point Sungod. I do see a major boost for third parties this year, in particular for Gary Johnson. I know of both liberals and conservatives actually considering to vote for him. I personally think he's a reasonable choice considering what we have and this is coming from a Sanders supporter.

The problem with any Third Party having an impact on the electoral college is the sheer votes they'd require in a single state. I refer you to the 1992 presidential elections where a man by the name of Ross Perot ran as an alternative to Bush and Clinton. Ross Perot won close to 20 million votes, or roughly 19% of the vote. You'd figure he would've won at least one State right? Wrong. Ross Perot didn't win a single State, rather he just managed to split up the vote in each State. I think the State Perot came closest to winning was Maine where he got over 30% of the vote. He beat Bush in Main but still lost to Clinton. Clinton then gained Maine's EC votes. So while a third party will make an impact, I doubt they'd shift any States and if anything, I believe the Libertarian party will probably have abit more of an impact on the GOP than the Democratic Party.
edit on 26-7-2016 by Southern Guardian because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 05:33 AM
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a reply to: Southern Guardian

I'm hearing a lot of Jill Stein from Dems. My Mother a staunch Democrat for IDK how long is talking her. A lot of R's and I's I know are talking Gary.

Also a valid point about Ross Perot, I had forgetten he even existed. Not every state is winner take all though. I guess we'd have to take that into account as well.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 05:54 AM
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originally posted by: thesungod
Have you taken into account the rebel third party wave this time. Pretty much EVERYONE I have talked to is talking no D or R.

Maybe you need to expand your circle of friends and acquaintances?


BTW, I'm voting Jill Stein unless the race in my state is close. If so, Hillary's getting my vote too.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 06:17 AM
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a reply to: enlightenedservant


Maybe you need to expand your circle of friends and acquaintances?


LOL. This is a truer statement than you know. I just spent two years overseas in a sort of self imposed exile/enlightenment trip... my circle of American friends is quite small at the moment.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 06:52 AM
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I know things have always been so much the same that at this point folks can almost bank on any outcome. However, this year has been been one of the hardest to predict for even the smartest pundits.

We might be in for a huge upset, but then again it could remain the status quo. As it stands, I think there will be a ton of folks who will not have had a wink of sleep for work the day after the election. We will all be up all night anticipating results I think.

Unless something drastically changes, it appears this one may keep all of us on our toes right up until the fat lady sings.




posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 06:57 AM
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originally posted by: Southern Guardian
a reply to: thesungod

Good point Sungod. I do see a major boost for third parties this year, in particular for Gary Johnson. I know of both liberals and conservatives actually considering to vote for him. I personally think he's a reasonable choice considering what we have and this is coming from a Sanders supporter.

The problem with any Third Party having an impact on the electoral college is the sheer votes they'd require in a single state. I refer you to the 1992 presidential elections where a man by the name of Ross Perot ran as an alternative to Bush and Clinton. Ross Perot won close to 20 million votes, or roughly 19% of the vote. You'd figure he would've won at least one State right? Wrong. Ross Perot didn't win a single State, rather he just managed to split up the vote in each State. I think the State Perot came closest to winning was Maine where he got over 30% of the vote. He beat Bush in Main but still lost to Clinton. Clinton then gained Maine's EC votes. So while a third party will make an impact, I doubt they'd shift any States and if anything, I believe the Libertarian party will probably have abit more of an impact on the GOP than the Democratic Party.


Good points. Though, I am still going to hold out for a chance that Johnson, Clinton, and Trump cannot get enough nominating electorates and it go to the house for a vote. Weld can be a great asset to Johnson in getting Republican majority to elect Johnson over Trump. Lol.

I know it is a long shot, but I can dream a little longer. This year is different than when Perot ran. Many voters on both sides are wanting to give a finger to the status quo. Get Johnson on stage at the debates and many more will see him as a safer choice.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 07:22 AM
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a reply to: thesungod

I was just messing with you.


Most of the people I know are pretty much split between Jill Stein and Hillary. Correction: most of the people I'm close to or that I'm on good terms with are split between those 2.

I have quite a few conservative "associates", former colleagues, and former friends that are stuck between Trump and Gary Johnson. I said "former" because I've been blocking them out a lot lately. The anti-Muslim and anti-African American talk has gotten so bad over the last year that they're burning bridges with me. That crap may be just rhetoric to them, but my family and I will have to deal with the actual repercussions if those suggestions become policy.

As for the OP, I'm firmly expecting a Hillary landslide. It might even be worse than Romney and McCain's dismal showings. Though the idiotic Democratic establishment almost seems to be trying to give it away withg their constant scandals and underhanded tactics.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 07:36 AM
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a reply to: Southern Guardian

I mostly agree with your analysis.
I found a handy tool to play this game. See: www.270towin.com...

My guess gets Hilary to 316 v. Trump 216. Just a guess on my part, but I think the following go for Hilary.
Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and big surprise, Florida. I "think" Wisconsin goes Red, but hey.........its just a guess.

I dont have a party affiliation, but I'd hate to see Hilary win, but expect to see her do it. I don't like Trump either, so I'll vote for Camacho!



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 07:45 AM
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a reply to: enlightenedservant

The anti-Muslim and anti-African American talk has gotten so bad over the last year that they're burning bridges with me.

That's interesting comment. What does that mean to you when you say burning bridges with you?



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 08:06 AM
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i have explained this to multiple people to show the hidden voters. heres the trick.
if you have a facebook log on......
goto the page for donald j trump. there will be a little box that says ____ of your friends liked this
goto the page for hillary clinton. look at the same box.

the fix is in... i have not yet seen someone do this facebook trick, and hillary had more likes. in fact, everyone i have asked, probably over 20 people now, it has come out in trumps favor huuuuuuuuuuuuuuge. last person i asked it was 57 trump and 13 hillary.
now this may just go to show what kind of friends you have, and wont necessarily reflect the outcome of the election, but it does show nobody is supporting hillary.

look whats happening at the DNC. theres little to no hillary support. only way she is winning is cheating, fixing, lying, rigging...



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 08:29 AM
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Popular vote, I do believe Trump will take it. Two independent studies I read demonstrate a pattern of people basically saying they won't support Trump but when the votes are anonymous a good percentage flip their answer. This is especially true for black voters and legal American Hispanics. They don't want anyone to know they support Trump. He will still lose the majority of those demographics obviously but it's going to surprise a lot of people the percentage he pulls in.

Normally the popular vote is close enough where the Electoral College can get away with voting either way without too much backlash. If that number though is out of whack they are going to have to seriously think about it in swing states. They are voting for President but their political futures are also at stake. They only have so much ability to vote against the grain.

I get the Electoral Vote count going off of historical data. She should take it but historical data does not work on Trump. He is creating his own historical data. A whole new body of data which nobody knows what it will look like. Everyone that has tried to predict it has failed.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 08:47 AM
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also lets take a look at total number of voters in primary
31,160,217 voted republican
45% trump 14,009,107 total votes
25% cruz 7,810,479
11% rubio 3,513,879

30,125,197 voted democrat
hillary 55.2% 16,847,075
sanders 43.1% 13,168,214

my theory:
those republicans who did not vote for trump in primaries, lets say 1/3 of those will vote for trump. so approx 5.7 million republicans should go for trump
those democrats who did not vote for hillary, im gonna guess 1 out of 10 bernie supporters will vote for hillary. after seeing the DNC last night, i dont think shes gonna get any support from bernie fans. so add 1.35 million to hillary

so now the popular vote is @

hillary 18,197,075
trump 19,709,107
polls of independent voters show an almost dead heat between the 2... 39% of voters are independent

2012 voting results had 126,849,296 total votes...... so who is gonna get the rest of the votes? and where will they come from

39% of 126,849,296 = 49,471,225 1/2 49,471,225 = 24,735,612

hillary 18,197,075 + 25m =43,197,075
trump 19,709,107 + 25m =44,709,107

my results..........holy crap, its gonna be close



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 10:15 AM
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It would be hard for Trump to lose the popular vote, that's just how I see it playing out. The real kicker though is where is that surplus vote coming from. It's likely swing states where the stakes are much much higher. I'm also not so sure about PA. I lived in that state for a few years recently and it is a mess. Lots of fraud and abuse on taxpayers and big companies leaving. Voting Democrat did not help their situation at all.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 10:33 AM
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Barring any other major upset happening, I think the OP's call is right on the money, sadly, if it were held today. And kudos to the great breakdown by the way.

However, I DO think there will be some other major upsets. Up next, round 2 of the wikileaks influence. And I'd wager more are on the way once she's confirmed as the candidate.

By November, I think even some of the 6 time blue states may switch, as well as some of the swing states. I still think it will be a nail-biter though, by the time November rolls around.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 11:16 AM
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originally posted by: TonyS
a reply to: enlightenedservant

The anti-Muslim and anti-African American talk has gotten so bad over the last year that they're burning bridges with me.

That's interesting comment. What does that mean to you when you say burning bridges with you?

Exactly what it sounds like. Nothing "interesting" about it. I can't consider someone a friend if they want my family living under a police state, don't want us to have access to mosques here, consider me guilty until proven innocent just because of my skin color or faith, etc.

It's actually pretty simple.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 11:26 AM
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a reply to: thesungod

There are only two states that are not winner take all. Maine and Nebraska. All the others are winner take all.
Just one more way the general is very different from a primary or caucus.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 11:34 AM
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a reply to: nobunaga

You didn't watch the first night if you think they are not pulling together behind Hillary. You couldn't be more wrong.
Yes there are still Bernie or bust people but the message last night was that an e mail didn't make or break the election and the speeches were positive and powerful.
The convention is not the mess the republicans want you to believe. Last night was great. Of course there's no thread about the DNC but that doesn't surprise me.



posted on Jul, 26 2016 @ 11:45 AM
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a reply to: LifeMode

Yeah Latinos Muslims and women all secrety love trump. We're just ashamed to admit it.
If that were true. (its not) what does that say about a candidate?



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