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THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE WAA SECTOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH A SURFACE DRYLINE MOVING EAST INTO AREAS WEST OF I-35 BY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130 KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 DEGREES AND INSTABILITY OVER 2000 J/KG...LIKELY MEANS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 30-40KTS... THUS A MULTI-CELLULAR OR BROKEN SQUALL LINE/QLCS MODE SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...SO BEST TO PRACTICE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS NOW.
originally posted by: TechniXcality
a reply to: pl3bscheese
While I understand your jadedness, last week was damaging for me in Wylie and for many others; severe weather can be forecast ahead of time but the pin point locations are still blurry & mesoscale features, however our technology is improving as well as advanced warning.
A severe thunderstorm warning is not for tornadoes, a tornado warning is for tornadoes.. Typically a severe thunderstorm warning indicates that within the county winds above 50mph and hail larger than pennies is occurring.This last year has been very active for the north central Texas area and of course the tornadoes and deaths that occurred during December still have many weary.
By posting these threads I hope to raise awareness and safety (if possible) and of course enjoy the cool aspects of weather together, and also I try to only post when there is model consensus and a clear threat as to not engage in hyperbole. Once again I do understand your complacency but please don't ignore warnings, just because in the past your house specifically was not damaged or in the path of the most severe part of the thunderstorm.
RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER JET MAXIMUM. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL EVOLVE COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS. GIVEN THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME STORMS TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FROM ERN TX AND SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF EARLY CONVECTION LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN MORE THAN A SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY A 150 KNOT JET ORIENTED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. TWO MODES OF CONVECTION ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FIRST BEING ORGANIZED STORMS ON AN EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE AND THE SECOND BEING MORE DISCRETE STORMS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DRYLINE WILL MOST LIKELY NOT ENTER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.