Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight: Says Bernie to Win All Upcoming 8 States

The first article i quote is Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, he rewrote is formula for predicting elections after the Sanders upset in Michigan. His new formula predicts some solid wins for Sen Sanders the next few weeks.

Well one poll is hardly post worthy so I added a new national poll where Sanders knocks HRC's lead down 3 points, she now has a mere 5 point lead. I predict this lead will be evaporating in the next two weeks.

The last poll ranks candidates favorability, both HRC and Trump hit highest marks for unfavorable in history of the poll.



Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight,

Polling Expert Says Bernie to Win All Upcoming 8 States

The next primaries are to take place in Arizona, Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

According to Silver, Bernie Sanders has a 75 percent chance of winning Idaho, 82 percent for Utah, 91 percent for Alaska and 81 percent and 85 percent for Hawaii and Washington respectively.

Silver believes that in Wisconsin Bernie has a 61 percent chance of winning and his chance in Wyoming is at 81 percent while he is not certain about Arizona, but currently rates Bernie's chance at around 40 percent.

source




Last month HRC had an 8 point lead in the poll, this month she is down to a 5 point lead.

Hillary Clinton now leads Bernie Sanders by five points nationally, 50 percent to 45 percent, ahead by slightly less than last month

The poll findings suggest an "enthusiasm gap:" while 56 percent of Democratic primary voters would enthusiastically support Sanders if he wins the nomination, just 40 percent say the same if Clinton should win. Still, both Clinton and Sanders would receive widespread support from Democratic primary voters should either become the nominee; just one in ten would not support each candidate.

And each side's supporters say they would support the other candidate: among Sanders' supporters, 19 percent say they would not support Clinton, while just 11 percent of Clinton's supporters would not support Sanders

source




Poll: Trump, Clinton score historic unfavorable ratings

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton register net negative ratings in double digits, indicating the front-runners for each party's presidential nominations are viewed negatively at historic levels, according to a new CBS/New York Times poll.

That makes Trump and Clinton viewed more unfavorably than any front-runner for either party since 1984, when CBS began polling voters on the question.

On the Republican side, Trump scores a net negative of -33, with a favorable rating of 24% compared to 57% of voters who view him unfavorably. On the Democratic side, Clinton fares only slightly better with a net negative of -21, registering a 31% favorable rating and a 52% unfavorable rating, according to the poll.

source

The only problem with that , Bernie could win all 8 states.However , doesnt mean a hill o' beans with the current delegate count. As much as I hate to say it , barring a miracle , Clinton has already won.
It appears the Sanders supporters were too much , too little , too late. Shame.

Nice take on the upcoming election.

I think the forecasts for supporting the opposite nominee is skewed by the fact trump is seen far for democrat support. I think a lot more would support sanders when faced with trump. Whereas with clintons image less so would follow.

Fingers crossed for a sanders victory over the next few weeks.

a reply to: AlaskanDad

he rewrote is formula for predicting elections after the Sanders upset in Michigan. His new formula predicts some solid wins for Sen Sanders the next few weeks.

He was wrong, so he changed his calculations to make Bernie's chances look better?
How's that work?

This is interesting as we can test this hypothesis and see if he's right real quick. If he isn't, his method isn't sound. If Sanders wins all eight states than I'm going to follow this guy and see what else he's predicting.

a reply to: Gothmog

Interesting; since day one I have been told by the pundits and the internet that HRC had won, the reason being the Super Delegates. HRC and DWS set up a good first half for a HRC win, not only with the Super Delegates, but HRC's strongest states voted in the first half. Quite simply there was an all out attempt to make Sen Sanders look unelectable and lower turnout in his strongest states!

Sen. Sanders is still in the game, and HRC is being investigated by four federal agencies.

Feel the Bern!

a reply to: DAVID64

Wow what a great question, very inquisitive, you are really searching for the truth, the perfect ATSer denying ignorance aren't you?

Read the arcticle. it explains it all.

Duh!

FTA:

In the 2008 U.S. presidential elections, Silver successfully called the outcome in 49 of the 50 states and was named one of ''The World’s 100 Most Influential People'' by Time in 2009.

sourced in OP

a reply to: AlaskanDad

The DNC has already chosen the old white man of their choice for this election.

We'll start finding out in a few hours.

Go Bernie.

Hillary needs her blood pressure to rise.

a reply to: AlaskanDad

Half the Bernouts are protesting Trump and unconstitutionally attempting to shut down free speech.

a reply to: AlaskanDad

By Time in 2009...

Lol.

a reply to: xuenchen

How long do we have to wait for the results? I would imagine Bernie would win some states but Hillary would win more then him.

a reply to: LSU0408

Sen Sanders still has a lawsuit on going, against the DNC, I see it just getting bigger.

Did the DNC make the choice, or has DWS made a miscalculation?

Your avatar is the father of trickle down economics, how sad!

a reply to: LSU0408

Gee I read that was a Soros HRC game.

Does that ronnie raygun trickle down thing feel good on you?

a reply to: xuenchen


HRC is imploding, go FBI!

originally posted by: AlaskanDad
a reply to: Gothmog

Interesting; since day one I have been told by the pundits and the internet that HRC had won, the reason being the Super Delegates. HRC and DWS set up a good first half for a HRC win, not only with the Super Delegates, but HRC's strongest states voted in the first half. Quite simply there was an all out attempt to make Sen Sanders look unelectable and lower turnout in his strongest states!

Sen. Sanders is still in the game, and HRC is being investigated by four federal agencies.

Feel the Bern!

As I have said , Sanders was chosen and wooed to run as a Democrat to give Hillary an appearance of having a viable candidate to run against. And as a President once said "Let me make this perfectly clear" , the only ones certain of any wrongdoing on Hillary's part are the Republicans. (as far as the email situation goes). The people that matter cant even decide if what she done was against the law , Federal policy , or ok.Otherwise, there would have already been indictments served.
In my opinion , Sanders is the best the Dems have, and I say that in a good way.And I hear so many folks with the mantra that the Clintons (and that is plural) have a good track record on foreign policy. Bill did. Hillary , not so much.I would prefer Bernie sitting across the table from someone like Putin any day rather than Hillary.For some reason , he has a way when he speaks of commanding respect . For this reason ,I like Trump's video featuring Clinton. Barking like a dog and Putin laughing in the end. Thats the way that one would turn out.

a reply to: Gothmog

I have no idea if Sen Sanders can actually win, but in my little town there is a lot of talk about Bernie. This year we will have a Dem poll in our town, that's a first.

I just got off the phone with a 42 yr old neighbour, she called because she wants my wife and I to stop by and explain the what and hows of the caucus.

MSM's having wrote off Sen Sanders early, may work in his favor. HRC voters may stay home, believing that HRC has already won.

As for the emails, I often look at the timing of information releases and wonder at the coincidence with the Dem primaries. In my mind it's like Obama might be giving some payback to HRC, my understanding is, Obama has been holding a grudge against HRC over election slandering. I often wonder, as to what Obama said to Sen Sanders, in their private meeting. Maybe O said, just stay in the race Bernie, the FBI is building an airtight case against her.

I've read that Obama, is famous for nudging, his political enemies towards their self destruction. But I admit bias against the Clintons, so my opinion might be tainted.

Can you imagine the grift that would go through the Clinton Foundation with HRC in the Whitehouse? Bill and Chelsea speaking and HRC and friends selling the middle east weapons, regime change and WARs.

Nate Silver is usually pretty accurate. It seems strange that he could have missed the Michigan primaries by the wide margin that he did.

It makes me think that perhaps there is something to this notion of "fixed" primaries. Though in this case Bernie won, rather than Clinton. Of course Bernie has to win a few to make it look good. HRC has always been the anointed one.

-dex

I'm sorry, but I just checked fivethirtyeight.com and it basically says that Hillary's on track to win it. I can't find any reference to Nate Silver saying that Bernie will win the next eight. And according to the polls listed on it, Hillary is ahead by anything between 5 and 12 points. Here.

a reply to: LSU0408

Talking about burn outas, yet you worship a guy who couldn't tie his own shoes when he left the White House.