Quake Watch 2016

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Thank you!!
That's interesting.

There is gonna be a majour earthquacke in eatern europa. Toward the Balkans .

I predict it is going to be above 6 and will hit hard.

Siomewhere in the next 3-4 months.


And yes, i predict it will happen. I live there so i can feel it.

Pretty big one in India:

5.3 190km SSE of Port Blair, India 2016-04-19 20:32:57 UTC 13.7 km

Alaska has been shaking pretty good for a few days, but this seems like a bigger one, close to a dangerous volcano:

4.1 66km SSW of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska 2016-04-20 01:29:39 UTC 127.0 km

originally posted by: BlueAjah
Alaska has been shaking pretty good for a few days, but this seems like a bigger one, close to a dangerous volcano:

4.1 66km SSW of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska 2016-04-20 01:29:39 UTC 127.0 km

Yep, been watching this too, unusual to see that there and it definitely caught my attention.
A 4.4 down in Argentina earlier too.

3.5 same location Alaska, Pedro Bay

a reply to: ericblair4891

Eric, no doubt the Moon has some influence, but if it was as much as you think then earthquakes should be as easy to predict as Tides, but they aren't are they.
I'm away out of town for a week, with only my phone, so no graphs or maps this week. Will be some catching up to do at the weekend!

a reply to: ZeroFurrbone

Romania?
Back in the 1800's they had M7's on quite a regular basis.

Just getting back into this for the day and I see things are still rumbling along,

4.6 in Alaska,
5.4 in Vanuatu,
4.6 and a 6.1 in Ecuador.

It's a shame I don't have the time to spare as I would love to go through historical records to properly compare this data. It seems to me that activity has significantly increased around the Pacific Plate, but I don't know if this is just a false perception due to my interest, or whether the Japan quake really did trigger movement.

I'm pretty sure I've never seen Alaska being this active before, but then I haven't been paying as much attention as I am right now.

And yes, I'm still thinking we're going to see more significant movement in North America, I do believe it's a little too coincidental that Ecuador went so quickly after Japan, and I do believe that's because the movement in Japan was itself unusual in some way.

Maybe I'll find a couple of hours tonight to get a graph together.

Not in the same area as the 7.0.

M5.8 - 63km NE of Namie, Japan

37.811°N 141.592°E depth=40.7 km (25.3 mi

Time
2016-04-20 12:19:45 (UTC)
2016-04-20 07:19:45 (UTC-05:00) in your timezone
Times in other timezones

Nearby Places
63.0 km (39.1 mi) NE of Namie, Japan
69.0 km (42.9 mi) ESE of Watari, Japan
71.0 km (44.1 mi) SSE of Ishinomaki, Japan
72.0 km (44.7 mi) ESE of Iwanuma, Japan
290.0 km (180.2 mi) NE of Tokyo, Japan

USGS

Also side note 5.8 North Atlantic Ocean

I'm suprised no one posted this 6.1 aftershock (?) in Muisne, Ecuador

earthquake.usgs.gov...

I saw that 5.8 in NAO. That area has a history of some big ones.

a reply to: muzzy

As you said it has some influence. And, we could start predicting via the moon if we took all the factors and not just the one position of the moon. That one geologist (Jim Berkland) that supports the moon theory, is off the mark. (edit. Actually I'm wrong I went and looked and he has windows for earthquakes based on tides-- so I agree with him) Geologists laugh at him because he's often missing the mark. He's thinking of the moon in a single position. (edit, again here I'm wrong about his position, I'm glad I double check and research. I am wrong... Here's a link to the wiki of him where he's called a clown.)( en.wikipedia.org... )It's a particular alignment that has the moon at maximum and minimum apogee and perigee. There's also a difference whether the moon is full or new. The tides come every month. But sometimes there's a peak. The same can be said with the pump. And no scientist believes the idea of a pump so they aren't able to predict they won't even try. In 2010, I was with hours of my prediction of the second largest swarm on record. Both of Yellowstone swarms of 2008 and 2010 were during such alignments. (edit. If there is a difference between Berkland and myself is that I think it's a multiple stage event- akin to pump, whereas, he is just using the tidal influence as a factor- our ideas are similar but different)( They call him crazy) ( bigots)

But the moon does not create all earthquakes therefore it can't predict every earthquake. Look at the moon can predict a busty time. It raises the probability of earthquakes. The moon doesn't cause the fault to move. It causes the liquids and pressures that kick start the process. So, in order to predict an exactly location, you'd have to know how close the fault is to being over stressed.

You made me think of tides. Hmmm. Well, Japan and Ecuador are both on the coast. But forget Japan and focus on Ecuador.

What is noticeable about the epicenter of Ecuador's coastline? It has a large river and large inland bay. Oh my gosh, it kind of reminded me of San Francisco Bay. On April 7 we had a very high tide as it was a new moon with a very near perigee and the new moon and it's closest point was within 6 hours. The high tide would have filled the bay and the extra weight on the fault kick started the earthquake.

Tidal loading.

Oh Muzzy, I said, "Muzzy, you can ignore this. The moon, I think upcoming alignments mean big things..." March 28 " You could ignored all this. But at least now I know I've moved you a bit arguing the case of the moon. At first, your stats showed nothing. But then you began to realize some small influence. So, you are saying that there is an influence. Now, the question is what influence and in what way. Well, I think we're ahead of the "professionals" because at least we see that it does exist. Even if small, and hard to spot.


Butterfly effect. I'm not saying I even like this idea. I get the idea. But, they make it seem like it's the beat of one butterfly that starts the whole thing. That's a misrepresentation. It's not the butterfly alone. It's really more about relationships. But for argument's sake, we'll say that one tiny thing can set off a chain of events. The relationship between the sun, moon and earth, causes different stresses and influences. The tides for example are the most obvious and visible. But the tides are also underground where we can't see them. So, when the ocean and the tide filled a big bay in Ecuador, that water permeated the crustal rock. The ground water is also elevated. I haven't studying the rock there, but I'll guess it may be sandstone limestone, and this may make it even more permeable. This extra water adds weight, but it also always water to find it's way into faults where it can act as a lubricant.


EDIT.. Instead having to go through lots of boring maps from geologists, I decided to go to Ecuador via Google maps. From what I can see, it would seem there is lots of evidence of uplifted small mountains. This is the same terrain that Darwin found and in which Darwin found the ancient sea life that was trust upward by plate tectonics. There were lots of fossils to find because the land that had uplifted had once been on the bottom of the ocean. These are sedimentary rocks. Meaning, my hypothesis that the lands around the epicenter were inundated with water stands the test.

I want to visit Ecuador. On street view you can see the sandy rocks and the colour. You can even see how loose the soils are as it looks like everything would crumble it you touched it.

Sorry, a little background on Darwin. While he was sailing around South America, he stopped in Chile near Valdivia and he experienced a massive earthquake. Wow, I wonder if this experience helped spark the idea of a violent changing earth. Oh wait, it did.

"1835 February 20
A massive earthquake hit Valdivia and Darwin was right in the middle of the action. The devastation was horrible - nearly every building in the area was destroyed. While the Beagle tried to make anchorage at Concepcion Darwin was dropped off at the island of Quiriquina and while exploring around the island he found areas of land that have risen a few feet due to the earthquake. He became very excited about this find, as it was direct evidence that the Andes mountains, and indeed all of South America, were very slowly rising above the ocean. This confirmed Charles Lyell's theory that land masses rose in tiny increments over an extremely long period of time. Given this fact, Darwin accepted that the idea that the earth must be extremely old. The next day he went by ship to the town of Talcuhano, and from there rode by horse to Concepcion to meet up with the Beagle. "

Darwin is famous for his ideas on natural selection. However, this success overshadows his important ideas on geology. His findings of sudden uplift helped forged the idea of a still evolving planet.

I don't know how to capture pictures off google earth. However, I copied some link to share. If you look at this picture of a driveway, you'll see the erosion. The soils at the bottom are all loose. Where the driveway was cut, you'll see the cross section of the rock. You can easily see that there are many layers and the material is crumbly. The area is quite obviously made from sedimentary rock.

www.google.com...@0.365411,-79.9570262,3a,75y,74.59h,78.1t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sRNOK0HZPS2lPtBXRvqeINQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

Well, that didn't work so well. take this part of the address and paste it after the @ and you'll get the view. I tried hard to capture but couldn't

0.365411,-79.9570262,3a,75y,74.59h,78.1t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sRNOK0HZPS2lPtBXRvqeINQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

oh, and it's not a driveway. It's just were water flows when there's heavy rains. Whatever, it still shows how easily the water erodes the soft rock in the area.
The following is a cross section of the Ecuador coast. notice lots of erosion and fluid movement described





I was going to go on this site and read all about this and erosion and explain. However, when you visit the site, everything is membership to the journal and I think there's a pay wall . I could be wrong. Much of our science data is locked up. Information is power. Money is power. And to get the information, you gots to pay. It's a club and I aints invited.

I hate me. I really, really do. I've been trying to let go of this all morning. I need to move on and do taxes and paperwork. However, I started thinking about Japan and how it fits into all this. Oh, Japan. I started fixating on the foam. The foam they found in the street. I still haven't heard an official explanation. I've been trying to write it off as just some burst pipe. Or, is it liquefaction. But quickly, I decided to forget Japan because it's Japan, and nothing there seems strange. weather.com...


Then out of the blue, I began thinking Ecuador again. But why? I just figured it all out just in that last post. What else can I say about it? Without proof Japan had liquefaction, then the tidal thing and the water connection falls short.Yeah, maybe Japan has a bay and I could check out conditions of soil. Forget Japan. Out of blue, the blue water, I got final piece of this puzzle. The weather.

As some of you have figured out, I'm trying to connect weather to earthquakes. Then it hit me. The weather. What's the weather been like in Ecuador? Solution. Rain.

Ecuador has been under the influence of El Nino. Earlier, it had been spared much of the anticipated effects. However, over last month or so, the rains came. As, proven here with a report on shrimp fishing.

www.seafoodnews.com...

So, the area was sodden. Heavy with water. Since, it is a permeable, porous rock, it can hold lots of water compare to other soils and rock. Have you ever swarm with wet clothes? So, we have a sodden land. Then, we have a high tide that pushes water up and into the area due to very high tides, being spring and a new moon a perigee. As the cross section shows, there is lots of erosion and breaking of the rock. Not only that, there is a fluid rich sedimentary level trapped very deep. This when heated under pressure always more fluid to migrate upward into faults causing more erosion, and there fore more permeability. The rock under Ecuador is like swiss cheese.


Sorry, again. (remember, i'm canadian, therefore, always apologizing.) I remember why I thought it was the rain. The fracture you see at the surface, will allow lots of rainwater to percolate deep into the crust. So, we had water from the top down, and then, water from the bottom up. Too much water. And then rupture from pressure.

Here's picture of a very wet Ecuador.



So. Flooding+High Spring Tides=

a lot of water.




again, i hate me

I shouldn't have looked at Japan. Why did I look at Japan? I've actually ignored the area on purpose. Because, I've been hovering over Mexico down through Central America. I didn't want a distraction. Then this morning and my ideas. My curiosity wouldn't let me let the foam go. I've checked. There's no good information on the cause. However, one fellow said that if it were liquefaction, it would probably be a brown slurry. Good argument. In all honesty, if I had to bet, I may bet on the busted pipe theory. I don't know. I didn't want to speculate about Japan. Cause- I wasn't looking. But then, I did.

Any of you that did study the maps, should notice one thing. The first of the series started on the coast. A coastline that has a very big bay.

big bay. What's the common link between Japan and Ecuador? It's that they both are on bays. I'm not saying anything about San Fran. But, the most famous feature of San Fran is the Golden Gate Bridge that spans the mouth of the giant San Francisco Bay. IF. if, San Fran did have a large earthquake along with Japan and Ecuador, then that would be the link. But didn't.

originally posted by: ericblair4891
I started fixating on the foam. The foam they found in the street. I still haven't heard an official explanation.

It's been explained.
The foam was caused by the rupture of an underground storage tank for a fire suppression system in a nearby building. The tank or pipes from it ruptured during the quake and emptied out the foam into the streets around the building. This is a problem that was seen elsewhere too and the company who manufactured/installed the systems has recognized it and taken responsibility for it.

There's no need to weave this into any theory, it's a man-made product created from a failure of equipment and nothing more

a reply to: Rocker2013

Thank you, it was bugging me. I shouldn't have looked for myself, and just waited until one you found the answer. Thanks again.

ps. i gots to do taxes. if you want, look up precipitation tables for Japan around the epicenter for the last month and a half.

i'm only half joking

You can ignore this Rocker. I'm just adding here to save cyberspace.

I was looking at the cross section. Trying to make sense of it. It does look like a mess doesn't it. At least the colour coded it. Nature doesn't do that for ya. I was trying to envision how the water would behave within rock. Then I had the answer, and like most often, it's funny.

The answer is those little toy dinosaurs. You know, the sponges that are dried out and when you add water, they grow into giant monsters. No, not really, they just expand to 10 times the volume. So, think of the coast of Ecuador as a sponge, a dry sponge. Rains, plus the tides, expands and adds mass.

Ecuador is still having a tough time:

4.9 10km ESE of Muisne, Ecuador 2016-04-20 21:30:06 UTC 25.8 km

ETA: and another:

4.7 44km WNW of Bahia de Caraquez, Ecuador 2016-04-20 22:31:32 UTC 28.6 km

I mentioned Jim Berkland the other day. Now, someone has interviewed him and I'll let him speak for himself.

www.express.co.uk...

A GEOLOGIST has warned a devastating earthquake and tsunami could hit the United States, potentially threatening millions of lives, within the next 48 hours.

Jim Berkland, a former US Geological Survey scientist, who once famously predicted the Loma Prieta quake, said mega quakes usually strike at a new moon or full moon because of the gravitation effect on the Earth…and the next full moon is on FRIDAY.

The maverick, now retired, scientist spoke out after eight powerful earthquakes struck across south Asia and the pacific in the past 80 hours, claiming hundreds of lives in Japan and Ecuador.

Mr Berkland predicted on October 13, 1989, an earthquake of magnitude 3.5 to 6.0 would strike San Francisco within the next week.

Four days later on October 17 a magnitude 6.9 quake hit Loma Prieta in northern California.

He now says 20 of the world’s last 25 mega quakes have happened during new or full moons.

He is most concerned about the the San Andreas Fault through California and the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which is further north along the coast of Oregon and Washington State.

He says both areas are long over due a so-called “Big One” earthquake and would likely cause devastating tsunamis to surge over the west coast if it happened.

He said: “Beware the new and full moons.”

He says this causes "equinoctal tides", which are extreme gravitational forces that cause solid earth to expand and contract, in the way ocean tides rise and fall.
He worked for the United States Geological Survey, later acting as county geologist for Santa Clara County.

But he claims after his first prediction he was warned by government officials not to make any more for fear of mass panic.

In 2006 a book about him called The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes was published and he continues forewarning of tragedy on his website.

Mainstream scientists dispute his theories on what causes earthquakes.

But worryingly another self-styled earthquake predictor has also warned of a mega quake on Friday or Saturday.
Mr Berkland studied geology at the University of California, Berkeley."


I have to agree with Mr Berkland that there is a link. He's called a quack because he can't hit the mark every time. Even he says clearly, a window of probability. The establishment don't account for the moon in the least. They give it a negative value in fact. If you speak of the slight influence, or the slight influence that maybe be a catalyst for the chain reaction, you're called crazy and marginalized.

Props Berk-Man.

Do you think he needs to be laughed at and dismissed?
No.
He's retired. He could ignore the world. Instead, he feels compelled to make an argument. It's not based on voodoo that the moon makes you loony, or is made from cheeze, or there's Nazis on the dark side. No. He's saying the tides. I actually felt great the day I found him. I felt not alone. I had come up with the moon pump for Yellowstone on my own before I found his site. It was someone here on the Yellowstone Thread that told me about him. At first, I was really excited. Then I saw how they treated him. Wow. Sad. The also treated J Harlen Bretz poorly and dismissed him for 40 years. Gee, Noah was only adrift for 40 days, imagine 40 years..

Anyway, someone told me someone in the media was blaming the moon. I should have known it was him.

Oh wait, there's more of him on TV.

www.inquisitr.com...



Oh my god, I hate the internet again. If you look at this stupid video from a stupid webite this is from like 5 years ago. Trash. sorry i should know better than rely on one source. I'm not even sure about the interview because there's two stories and I think there's two different names credited for the piece.

I should have looked closer. I love the end where some says they're going to blow up Yellowstone.

Edit. I thought I'd add. It's quiet. The earthquake has quieted. I blame ATS for teaching me to read seismos. I'm still upset over Yellowstone. I've watched earthquakes since 2008. Everyday, almost. Because I want to know what was normal and not normal. I've noticed many things. One, is that earthquakes often come in clusters. And, they can come at any time. However, there are exceptions and I have seen them. There are peaks around certain lunar cycles. Berkland say electromagnetic, I disagree, it's almost totally about the water, above and below and the torque changes. Simple physical stuff.

But here's the thing. It's never at the exact peak. It the moon at full or new was a clock, then call the peak high noon, twelve o'clock. It's almost never right at the peak. There's is often an eerie pause. I know this because I look for it and often find it. But look out before and after. We've already had the before stuff. Yes, I suppose that means we're still due for the after stuff.

This is the part I hate.

As soon as I say that there's two small ones in California around 3 M ish.



and then there's Chile coming in at 4.9 M.

I should shut up and just watch.

a reply to: ericblair4891

Eric, Berkland has his own web site Sysergy or somthing like that, you will have to google it. I used to post on there b4 I found Quake Watch. I found it to be a $ driven setup, you have to subscribe to get his monthly newsletter with the latest predictions. They are so random to be useless. He was right once in 1989.

a reply to: muzzy

Here is the website.
www.syzygyjob.com...

I have been over there too, but I really get better information, Educationally, and everyday info on recent quakes here in Quake watch.

We have the best here. IMHO

Oh Muzzy now, do let that go to your head. LOL!!!!

Yes Muzzy I have a thing for you. Now don't let Mrs Muzzy get all flustered. Mr. Kat is cool with it.

I think this is at least the third larger quake in this location this month:

5.1 87km NW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-21 18:53:02 UTC 10.0 km

ETA: yep, would not want to live there. Maybe its normal there.

5.1 87km NW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-21 18:53:02 UTC 10.0 km
5.4 107km WNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-20 07:12:30 UTC 10.0 km
4.9 135km NW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-19 12:35:37 UTC 10.0 km
4.9 130km NW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-19 10:40:49 UTC 10.0 km
4.9 66km NW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-16 00:22:14 UTC 10.0 km
5.2 68km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-15 18:47:11 UTC 28.8 km
4.8 116km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-15 15:20:21 UTC 10.0 km
5.1 105km W of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-15 08:54:40 UTC 43.0 km
5.4 70km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-15 03:42:59 UTC 3.7 km
5.2 111km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-14 22:23:27 UTC 10.0 km
6.4 95km NW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-14 21:50:27 UTC 16.0 km
6.0 86km NW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-14 12:17:05 UTC 10.0 km
5.2 84km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-12 09:52:40 UTC 10.0 km
5.0 110km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-11 03:52:57 UTC 12.8 km
4.7 88km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-11 01:18:07 UTC 35.0 km
4.9 114km W of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-08 07:03:46 UTC 8.9 km
4.8 110km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-07 17:52:32 UTC 33.8 km
4.9 97km W of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-07 08:01:48 UTC 19.8 km
6.7 106km W of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-07 03:32:53 UTC 26.8 km
4.8 103km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-06 22:59:14 UTC 39.8 km
4.3 100km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-06 16:58:02 UTC 35.4 km
4.9 88km W of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-06 12:22:13 UTC 35.0 km
4.9 100km W of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-06 09:04:00 UTC 35.0 km
5.9 102km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-06 07:57:38 UTC 35.0 km
6.7 105km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-06 06:58:48 UTC 24.0 km
5.3 106km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-06 06:54:54 UTC 35.0 km
4.2 95km W of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-05 23:46:07 UTC 39.4 km
4.8 89km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-04 21:03:35 UTC 34.8 km
5.3 103km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-04 13:23:12 UTC 35.0 km
4.9 79km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-04 08:22:03 UTC 10.0 km
4.7 75km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-04 02:16:35 UTC 8.4 km
4.3 70km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 23:10:48 UTC 10.1 km
5.1 91km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 18:18:58 UTC 35.0 km
4.8 87km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 16:53:14 UTC 35.0 km
4.7 76km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 16:04:32 UTC 35.0 km
5.0 94km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 14:48:05 UTC 37.6 km
4.4 77km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 12:55:24 UTC 20.4 km
4.5 94km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 12:52:20 UTC 35.0 km
4.8 91km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 12:46:19 UTC 37.8 km
4.5 101km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 11:57:38 UTC 61.7 km
4.3 84km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 11:56:39 UTC 35.0 km
4.4 85km WSW of Sola, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 11:52:13 UTC 40.5 km
6.9 81km NNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 2016-04-03 08:23:53 UTC 35.0 km