Quake Watch 2016

The spike in activity is the lunar pump. On the 21/22, the moon will be new and at perigee, withing 13 hours. This, after the last close full moon. The activity doesn't not hit right on the chime of the peak, it's not like big ben bonging on the exact hour. The pump usually is strongest just before and just after maximums and minimums.

It's a pump.

The earth acts like a pump.

I say this quite a bit so why not say it again.

I really wish I knew the science behind the Vanuatu quakes.

When Vanuatu quakes some part of the world has a 6 or larger in magnitude.

It's a pattern I began to notice over the last 4 years of daily inquiries.

If I notice such a pattern surely other people do as well?? At first I thought it was just a coincidence but this past year I have realized it's more than that.

Seriously... has anyone else noticed?

a reply to: MamaJ

Good Question.

Hopefully Muzzy or Puterman can answer your question.

I am looking forward to there thoughts.

a reply to: MamaJ

I did notice that there had been 4 mid to upper 6 mag in this last week leading upto the other events, thought it was abit odd, but knowing its a fairly active area didn't really take a lot of notice, you've intrigued me to look a little deeper.

Interested in hearing also what others think.

a reply to: MamaJ

The problem I find when watching Vanuatu, is that is often busy, and in one of the busiest neighbourhoods on the planet. The only way you'll be able to find it spikes before the rest go off is to take a long look with the graphs.

By Mama J, now I'm gonna rant. I know you've read me long enough not to take personally, nor think it's out of the ordinary. I'd thought I'd say hi to you before I devolve into my best misanthropic self. It's the self I love best because it can't hate so good. It's all about the graphs. You need a graph. Muzzy isn't making graphs. I'm not read ads when compelled. I'm not making content just to have them ask for more. We are the content. Oh god, went off the rails too quickly. Now I'm doing Marshall Mcluhan. We are the media, we are the content. They get the money.

And heck, if you want to know my paranoid conspiracy theory, it's that this whole site is a front. An information gathering site, with the dual purpose of providing misinformation. Muddy. Mud Skipper.


I really am going to rant. But first I'll talk shop again to preserve this, and these thoughts.

Earthquakes. Mexico. I've been watching Central America. The gap. I've already explained this part. Mexico had almost 60 earthquakes yesterday. It's spiking again. Just down the road from Ecuador. I said the gap was fill in. Ecuador is on the ring, but it hasn't seen much activity for a long time. It is not rare or uncommon. It's just when they get them, they can be big.

And isn't that the simple answer. If you're not getting regular earthquakes to relieve stress, then you'll get bigger irregular earthquakes when a fault overloads.


I took a breath I'm slightly calmer.

I had intended to start this writing by stating the following,

"Hello Internet, I'm not here to ask you to go back going steady, I'm here just because I still need to get a couple things off my chest. You know I'm not liar, so what I will say is true, I only said the horrible I did because I care about you, even if I hate the things you do. To me, you're just a giant library. I love libraries. They've been a sanctuary. But you're problem is that even if you have all the words in the world, you're not listening to them. The answer is there yet you miss it."

I'll be continuing this on my crazy thread if I can't let go. I'll leave after saying this, last month I said that stuff was going to happen this month because of the moon. I made a half-hearted prediction. Not fully because even if you get them right, it seems not to matter. Ecador was in gap. I should go back and read what I wrote....? Whatever.

As I write, Vanuatu just went off.... 5.1M like I said it's always going off... ha ha ha

Forget the moon this month. I couldn't help myself and went and look at the calculator. In 2008, we had a funky moon and a giant swarm under Yellowstone Lake. I won't say nothing, except the lunar pattern is very similar. If my pump is right, wherever, or whatever it is, it will be big. I at this moment, will rule out Yellowstone, because it is behaving and is not even inflating. Just saying.

I'll apologize and leave now. Oh, I'll post the data from the calendar because I still think I can paste and copy. And to think, I'll learned to upload out here and post videos and images. I guess learning something never hurts...


Perigee Apogee
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
Jan 10 6:08 363241 km F-2d 5h Jan 22 0:15 404911 km N-5d23h
Feb 6 14:00 368816 km F-4d10h Feb 18 21:15 404375 km N-7d17h
Mar 3 7:25 369063 km N+4d16h Mar 18 17:26 404650 km F+6d 2h
Mar 30 12:40 363854 km N+2d 9h Apr 15 10:06 405477 km F+4d 3h
Apr 27 16:19 359323 km N+1d 4h May 12 19:52 406210 km + F+1d22h
May 26 1:24 357209 km -- N+ 5h Jun 8 22:22 406401 km + F- 14h
Jun 23 10:50 357937 km N- 15h Jul 6 4:28 405932 km F-2d23h
Jul 21 17:11 361236 km N-1d16h Aug 2 17:56 405024 km F-5d 0h
Aug 18 13:16 366127 km N-3d 5h Aug 30 11:26 404305 km F-6d19h
Sep 13 16:05 369855 km N-6d13h Sep 27 6:51 404341 km N+7d 1h
Oct 9 5:52 366857 km F+3d11h Oct 25 2:26 405150 km N+5d 7h
Nov 6 0:10 361437 km F+1d18h Nov 21 18:53 406131 km - N+3d 7h
Dec 4 8:43 357495 km + F+ 16h Dec 19 1:28 406604 km -- N+ 18h


New Full

2016 Dec 29 6:54 2017 Jan 12 11:35
2017 Jan 28 0:08 2017 Feb 11 0:34
2017 Feb 26 15:00 2017 Mar 12 14:55
2017 Mar 28 2:59 2017 Apr 11 6:09
2017 Apr 26 12:18 2017 May 10 21:44
2017 May 25 19:46 2017 Jun 9 13:11
2017 Jun 24 2:33 2017 Jul 9 4:09
2017 Jul 23 9:47 2017 Aug 7 18:13
2017 Aug 21 18:32 2017 Sep 6 7:05
2017 Sep 20 5:31 2017 Oct 5 18:42
2017 Oct 19 19:13 2017 Nov 4 5:24
2017 Nov 18 11:43 2017 Dec 3 15:49
2017 Dec 18 6:31 2018 Jan 2 2:25


www.fourmilab.ch...


6.1 M Vanatu .
The USGS is so slow. I had to look around first. It's around 5,9M or 6 M or sumtin'. Depends who you ask. So it' not 5.1M is bigger. Vanuatu


www.emsc-csem.org...

a reply to: ericblair4891

I was wrong about me predicting a big on this thread. This is the only thing I said, "My spidey sense are tweeking all over Mexico. Logically, I could be considering Alaska seeing that it's begun to perk up a bit.

Muzzy, you can ignore this. The moon, I think upcoming alignments mean big things..." March 28
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I've been obsessed with Nicaragua and Central America.

So, I didn't predict much here. But I did on Volcano Watch. I went into a long rant about the gaps in the Americas. I was linking volcanoes and big earthquakes. You'll notice I mention Ecuador by mistaken identity.


"Honestly, between you and me, I think the plate is diving down. The pressure it's creating is pushing upward. I'm not sure what's next. I was thinking more northerly along ring. But first, we may have a massive earthquake in Central America first. When I was looking at a list of top earthquakes since 1900, there was a doozy there. I'll check.....

I'm wrong, It was off of Ecuador. The top part of South America. The gap of lack of really big ones starts where Central America begins. The records shows many in the 7.5+ range, but nothing like 8.8M and upward. Gosh, I just checked the listing for Chile and 8M are common." Feb 17

www.abovetopsecret.com...

While review the volcano page I was remind that Lurksoften posted a story about one of Ecuador's volcano erupting not so long ago.

My whole rant was about the gap being the thing to watch. Of course I was a bit off on location. I was looking slightly north. And in all honesty, there's still lots gaps by Central America all the way north. Muzzy mentioned Mexico has lots and lots, but the big ones haven't come. So, that may be a good thing for them if it takes away the stress.

Cotopaxi erupts after 138 years asleep.

www.abovetopsecret.com...


Lastly, Virginia City Montana is having a swarm. There was no main shock.

Okay so this is probably a better place for my thoughts on what's happening here and what we might expect coming up. I know there are a lot of people far more intellectually aware then I am when it comes to this, but I've been watching the events of the last couple of days and I do believe I've been seeing a pattern of travel along the Pacific Plate rim.

This is my layman's view based on common sense and my limited understanding of geology...

The quake in Japan wasn't normal, by that I mean that the experience people reported in certain areas was more intense than previous experience. I don't know what this means, but it seems to me that while we're giving this a certain rating it's different in various other little factors we wouldn't normally see. For instance, I saw it stated that the land moved something like 25 cm in a certain direction, and upward too. The damage done seems to have more significant than we would have expected. I personally believe that while this might have been a comparable quake to others in power and intensity, it the movement was different.

Then, we seemed to have an increase in activity in both New Zealand and in Alaska. These seemed to be minor movements, but they correspond with a chain reaction moving along the edge of the Pacific Plate. It might be my imagination, I haven't checked all the data over months and years to compare it, but my perception at least is that there has been a swarm of tremors in both locations.
Then we had activity increasing in Chile, with more activity in Alaska.

Then we had the quake in Ecuador.

After the Ecuador quake I posted a theory that this could be a chain reaction moving along around the plate and that this would then ultimately pass the West coast of the US, and that we should see action further north along the coast of South America.

Then we saw three quakes in Panama, El Salvador and Mexico - all between 4 and 5 - which seem to support my theory of a moving chain reaction along the rim.

Today we've seen another minor shake in Mud Bay Alaska, further South than the previous tremors there over the last two days.

If my belief is correct, we should now be seeing an increase in activity in Northern Mexico and California as the "wave" moves along the edge of the plate and affects any weak points.

This has taken several days to move around the Pacific Plate, but if my theory is correct and there is a wave of sympathetic movement along the edge of the plate, we should see it arriving in California in the next 12 - 24 hours. I don't think this means there is going to be a massive quake, but I do think we're going to see at least an increase in minor shakes there.

If I'm wrong, then that's great, it's still interesting.

My only question about this is why is this happening now (if it is) when we didn't see the same after the major quake in Japan? I think this might be because this was a different quake, a different movement, perhaps a comparably minor movement of the plate itself rather then a large movement of a smaller piece around the edge of the plate, if that makes sense? This would explain why people felt this more significantly in that location, why so much damage was done, why this is moving along the rim and others haven't... etc.

Anyway, thanks for indulging my layman's theory.

a reply to: Rocker2013

During the earthquake of 1906, several areas experience different kinds of shaking and damage. It depends what kind up crust is under you. If the soil is loose enough with lots of water underneath you'll get liquefaction. Also, the depth of the earthquake will create different patterns of shaking on separate areas. The direction of the fault movement also matters. Simply, there's a whole lot of different shaking going on depending on where you are. Even the building you're in would make a difference. If you want to get technical study the different waves that earthquakes can produce.

As for the idea there's a connection. Well. The experts say it's mostly local. There is no wider connection other than plate tectonics. The experts will tell you there's no connection between Japan And Ecuador.

i disagree

Further to what I said about this quake being different:

Seems I'm not the only one who thinks so. This seems to be backing up my initial opinion that this was not the "usual" quake of said magnitude and this was something far more unique than we believed.

This could potentially open up a whole new avenue of exploration when it comes to EQ activity and assessment.

Again, as said, this is why I think this is all related and not simply coincidence. I believe that this shift is not about a traditional EQ, this is not about a shift on a minor fracture or fault, this is about a larger movement still ongoing, and this is why I believe this is going to have an impact all around the Pacific Plate.

"I don't quite understand what is happening with the recent earthquakes, because it's an unfamiliar phenomenon," said Yoshihisa Iio, a professor at Kyoto University's Research Center for Earthquake Prediction.

Part of the Futagawa fault zone, about 27km in length, slid by around 3.5 meters, according to the GSI.

Kumamoto has seen the second-highest number of inland earthquakes on record, after those set off by the earthquake that hit the northwestern prefecture of Niigata in 2004

Unusual quake cluster worries Japan

Sorry. I needed a break from doing taxes. I was studying greek mythology. Hope is an evil.

Ah, that's for sure. I'm trying to be brief. I'm frustrated because I have yet to get a second source. USGS and Europe don't have it. However, according to Volcano Discovery, they have IGEPN showing earthquakes near the Galapagos Islands. Showing two, 5.8M and 5.7M.

I finally got the IGEPN to respond and when I checked their information it was different. They do show one in a different spot at 5.4. So, your guess is as good as mine. I was going to use the earthquakes to show the connection but the only thing I've uncovered that all the reporting gives me a headache. Looking again, there's another at 4.8M offshore. I don't know why there's a conflict with Volcano Discovery but it doesn't check out. I still can't get passed the Yellowstone webicorder change. Along with the different reprots, it's hard to know much. grrr.

Now for some relief, I'm going to go finish those taxes. I'm not in America, so we have until the end of the month. So, this is last minute cramming.

Coincidentally, the Great San Fran EQ happened 110 years ago to the day.

originally posted by: UnBreakable
Coincidentally, the Great San Fran EQ happened 110 years ago to the day.

And very coincidentally:

A SIMILAR Progression of Earthquakes Occurred in 1906: Japan, Ecuador, San Francisco

This is why I think this is more complex that we might believe. There are a lot of other factors playing a role in the quakes in a region like Japan that you just don't get in quakes like those in Italy, for example. No doubt this is factored into much of the science, but given the complexity it seems likely things are missed, something is overlooked, things just don't make sense.

We know that there are cyclical patterns in weather, with El Nino and so on, so it makes sense to me that there could be cyclical patterns in EQ activity too. I don't think it's likely to be as accurate as some seem to want to suggest, but I do believe that there are other aspects to all of this that we're just not seeing.

a reply to: UnBreakable

An interesting bit of related info:

" A section of the Lawson report on the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 entitled “Sounds Connected with the Earthquake” ( Lawson 1908 ) includes earwitness descriptions of sounds accompanying the mainshock as ranging from “a rumbling, roaring sound,” “a heavy wind,” “a rushing noise,” and “an approaching train” to “a team crossing a bridge.” "

What is That Mysterious Booming Sound?

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical
a reply to: UnBreakable

An interesting bit of related info:

" A section of the Lawson report on the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 entitled “Sounds Connected with the Earthquake” ( Lawson 1908 ) includes earwitness descriptions of sounds accompanying the mainshock as ranging from “a rumbling, roaring sound,” “a heavy wind,” “a rushing noise,” and “an approaching train” to “a team crossing a bridge.” "

What is That Mysterious Booming Sound?

That's something that fascinates me, and I think there might be more than one explanation to some of these.
As it pertains to EQ's, it's possible that during such large areas of rock are literally smashed together beneath the surface, causing these loud sounds. It's also possible that there are massive voids collapsing.

I've seen statements from witnesses who have seen the ground open up right in front of them, things falling into it, closing back up again, opening up again, and it all comes with bangs and rumbles and roaring sounds.

It makes sense to me, we are talking about the movement of massive amounts of rock. We see the same in rock slides above ground, so it's logical to me that would hear such noises coming from the Earth when these things happen out of sight beneath us.

originally posted by: Rocker2013

originally posted by: UnBreakable
Coincidentally, the Great San Fran EQ happened 110 years ago to the day.

And very coincidentally:

A SIMILAR Progression of Earthquakes Occurred in 1906: Japan, Ecuador, San Francisco

This is why I think this is more complex that we might believe. There are a lot of other factors playing a role in the quakes in a region like Japan that you just don't get in quakes like those in Italy, for example. No doubt this is factored into much of the science, but given the complexity it seems likely things are missed, something is overlooked, things just don't make sense.

We know that there are cyclical patterns in weather, with El Nino and so on, so it makes sense to me that there could be cyclical patterns in EQ activity too. I don't think it's likely to be as accurate as some seem to want to suggest, but I do believe that there are other aspects to all of this that we're just not seeing.

Wow! I had heard today was the anniversary, wasn't aware of the similar series of quakes back then. So if this is a similar progression, and it holds, an EQ could it @ SF within three months.

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical
a reply to: UnBreakable

An interesting bit of related info:

" A section of the Lawson report on the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 entitled “Sounds Connected with the Earthquake” ( Lawson 1908 ) includes earwitness descriptions of sounds accompanying the mainshock as ranging from “a rumbling, roaring sound,” “a heavy wind,” “a rushing noise,” and “an approaching train” to “a team crossing a bridge.” "

What is That Mysterious Booming Sound?

So if I'm a resident of the SF area, and I hear 'booming noises' for the next few weeks, I'd consider getting out of on a vaca to another location for awhile.

2.0 Explosion 17km NNW of Walla Walla, Washington 2016-04-18 20:06:25 UTC -0.4 km

Can an expert here please explain a 2.0 "Explosion" on the USGS map?
What would cause that?

a reply to: BlueAjah

I'm seeing 2 minor quakes in Washington on RSOE (along with other minor movements in Cali, and a recent 4.4 in Japan) but no idea what they mean by explosion. I guess they might be indicating that a movement was cause by an explosion? A little odd though.

Now there have been 2 more explosions :

M 2.0 Explosion - 6km ESE of Bend, Oregon Time 2016-04-18 21:52:04 UTC
Location 44.036°N 121.242°W Depth -1.5 km

M 2.3 Explosion - 9km NNW of Klamath Falls, Oregon Time 2016-04-18 22:02:26 UTC
Location 42.310°N 121.820°W Depth -1.7 km

Sometimes I keep an eye on activity, especially when things are going on.
But I do not watch enough to know if it is normal for USGS to show 3 explosions in one day.

There is a lot of minor earthquake activity in the surrounding area.

a reply to: BlueAjah

The explosions are likely mine related.

Happens quite often.