Two Incredible Storms Brewing: Many Images

First off let me say I'm sorry for posting this many images. But I think these MRF model charts need to be preserved. This series shows the advancement of two very large storm systems. The second storm is probably the most incredible of all. At its strongest point over the US the low pressure will bottom out near 29.11" and the circulation will stretch from nearly Denver, CO to Cleveland, OH. These two systems will dump record amounts of rain over the same areas and the northern states may see a major blizzard from this. I think the driver to this is a super heated ocean. The last image will be the sea surface temperature anomaly map. You will see how far off the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are. Unless we experience a dramatic cooling during the spring and summer I'd expect to see the oceans warm even more. I shudder to think what that will mean for next winter.

Starting with this image....



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... through this image is interesting. 1st big storm.

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Image set starting here...
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... and ending here are of particular interest.

And finally the SST anomaly map.




Edit: Ok.. I was nice and changed most images to links.

[edit on 1/5/2005 by Indy]

are you the same guy on ats a week ago with the same kind of thread? and if so im in mid michigan what should we get in the great lakes?

[edit on 5-1-2005 by slayerfan]

Let's pretend for a second that my education comes from watching "The Day After Tomorrow" and not from watching the weather channel. How odd is this and how bad are you saying it is?

Whats the difference between this and El Nino? Warmer oceans, a little extra rain- just another peak in the cycle of weather generated by normal oceanic activity isn't it? I'm not telling you, i'm asking you. So whats the deal as you see it?

Slayerfan... Yeah it was me a week ago. Michican seems to be a tossup with the 2nd storm. One model makes it look like its going to be a big rain event. The other a big snow event. Based on where the low will be I'd lean toward rain. But depending on how the layers of the atmosphere set up it could be an ice event. Lets hope not. Major snow or major rain is better any day over any amount of ice.

Vagabond.... I think this is really odd. To me this seems like mixing winter and spring storms in to one. And these storms are incredible in size. If you think back to the storm just before Christmas and add this one in thats happing basically starting now and the 3rd storm in I'd say we are looking at a very rare event indeed. I think whats different now is that both the Atlantic and Pacific are very warm instead of one or the other. Having both oceans warm like this and the particular jet flow right now is just perfect for these huge systems. But that 3rd one is absoltuely massive if it ends up turning out like that. The circulation size covers a better part of half the nation. I think the three storms when done will go into the record books as producing the snowiest and raniest 30 day period in history of US winters. If such a thing is even tracked. lol

I dont get those maps at all and you were more right than the weather people
on the ohio storm wernt you?the other day the local weather had a high of
35 or something and a lo of a AROW DOWN.THAY DIDANT HAVE A CLUE

Indy .... for those of us too enthralled by all the colors and otherwise clueless about these maps --
can you give us a breakdown of which areas you think will get what and how bad?

Just about everyone is going to get it. Let me help you with the colors and all. lol. The blue H's are high pressure areas and the red L's are low pressure areas. Under each H and L you'll find a number like 986 or 1010 or something along those lines. That is the forecasted pressure in millibars. You can go to this url... www.geocities.com... to find the conversion chart for converting the pressure in millibars to the pressure you are more used to seeing which is inches. All the lines around the map are isobars. They are lines of equal pressure. And they are all numbered as well. I believe they are drawn in increments of 4 millibars. It just helps you get a visual for how the high and low pressure areas are layed out. Now the colors from blue to green and yellow represent the forecasted liquid precipitation. Each image shows what is forecasted for a 12 hour period. So look at your area and then find the area on the key to the left. If you are in the absolute darkest green one frame you know you'll get 0.75" to 1" of liquid precip in that 12 hour period. If you were in that dark green for two frames you can double the storm total. If you were in the brightest green one frame you'd know you could expect 1.5" to 2.0" of liquid precip. Then of course you have to know if you were in a cold zone or a warm zone. Will your precip be all rain, all snow, rain then snow, or worse... ice. If you are north and west of the low there is a good chance your precip will be of the frozen variety. That isn't always the case. But its a good starting point if you don't know where to look.

Clear as mud so far?

sory not clear as mud can you give us a breakdown of which areas you think will get what and how bad? what do you predickt?

Slayerfan... dang thats a pretty big request. lol. This isn't a single storm that will just impact lets say Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. We are talking about two very large storms that will impact eventually most of the country. The storm now stretches from the Panhandle of Texas to eastern Pennsylvania. The 2nd storm looks to be even bigger. I think most of the places getting hit now will get hit just as bad if not worse with the second storm. It would take all night to try and figure out what will happen to each area of the country. Just look at the national radar now and imagine this happening again.... and then some.

BTW.. I looked back at our climate data going to 1996. January here gets about 2 to 4 inches of liquid precip. We had just over 6 inches in Jan of 1999. We may hit that number in the first week of January this year.

the last big storm had some good pics I persanly would like to see some pics on this storm. if I can get some good pics ill try.. , lets think spring,brrr

[edit on 5-1-2005 by slayerfan]

Well I sure hope I'm the only construction worker in this forum or there's gonna be a lot of miserable people around here. This stuff really gets in the way of work hours and income.

Does anybody know where I can get my hands on average rainfall and temperature figures for any given region as well as the numbers for specific years? Internet or real books- whatever. I just wouldn't know where to go or what to ask for because weather isn't my thing. I'd sort of like to start tracking this stuff here in So Cal. I keep telling people the weather is strange and they keep saying "well bad years happen". I need to see if theres a pattern or not so I can either shut up or show them how observant I am.

Originally posted by Indy
So look at your area and then find the area on the key to the left. If you are in the absolute darkest green one frame you know you'll get 0.75" to 1" of liquid precip in that 12 hour period. If you were in that dark green for two frames you can double the storm total. If you were in the brightest green one frame you'd know you could expect 1.5" to 2.0" of liquid precip.

Oh. Crap.

That doesn't look so good for me.

*hustles off to buy a canoe and some galoshes*

Originally posted by The Vagabond
Does anybody know where I can get my hands on average rainfall and temperature figures for any given region as well as the numbers for specific years? Internet or real books- whatever.

The good ol'Farmers Almanac - annual publication or Farmers Almanac, a really cool website where you can pretty much gat any information you want regarding weather patterns from about 1970(I think), though you won't find any cool graphics like that which started this thread. This is what farmers plan their crops on. Again, really cool site.

[edit on 5-1-2005 by MemoryShock]

[edit on 5-1-2005 by MemoryShock]

Indy,

Great reporting on the weather. Much appreciated

I'm still sitting under my record snowfall from last week.
Supposedly more coming by the end of the week.
I'm close to lake Tahoe, so the LP that's over Utah now, just missed me to the south , a day or two ago.

I was just watching the weather channel..(weather geek, yes)
And the poor guy was trying to find some nice weather to point out on the
US map...

Instead, he said...Get on a plane, leave the country...LOL
UMM, he WAS joking, wasn't he?

i have been very interested lately on climate change from the earthquakes we have been having.i have looked around and i cant find much data on it.there are few people who i read about that do feel that the weather might be effected but there friends dont agree with them.is there a study out there about this?im interested in weather changes right now.anyone out here have any knowledge of such a study?

Originally posted by The Vagabond
Whats the difference between this and El Nino? Warmer oceans, a little extra rain- just another peak in the cycle of weather generated by normal oceanic activity isn't it? I'm not telling you, i'm asking you. So whats the deal as you see it?

There's a weak El Nino this year, but during a real El Nino year, the ocean usually looks like this (with the warming coming off the coast of South America):



[edit on 5-1-2005 by ThatsJustWeird]

Originally posted by flukemol
i have been very interested lately on climate change from the earthquakes we have been having.i have looked around and i cant find much data on it.there are few people who i read about that do feel that the weather might be effected but there friends dont agree with them.is there a study out there about this?im interested in weather changes right now.anyone out here have any knowledge of such a study?

I curious to know how those few people believe that earthquakes can cause climate change?

The two are really not connected.

If there's earthquakes because of massive volcanoes going off all over the place, then they'll be climate change. But from the volcanoes, not the earthquakes.
or
If there's earthquakes large enough to move continents around, then you'll experience a change in the climate, because you moved. But the climate where you were would remain the same.

If you click on 'state radar at the left, you'll get a full image of this storm...there's also a way to enlarge as well as put it in motion to see direction.
If you click on any particular part of this map, it will bring up local details...

wwwa.accuweather.com...

[edit on 5-1-2005 by masqua]

[edit on 5-1-2005 by masqua]

I'm poop at reading maps....

blah blah blah blah


NYC going to be spared?