The Early Warning Project - US Holocaust Museum tool aims to predict, prevent genocide....

Well, this is certainly an interesting project. They claim it has been tested over the last 2 years. I wonder what the result of the entire list is, and if they would even release it? I wonder how high on the list the US is? I would think that they would have to narrow the focus down to traffic solely in a specific country, but what about those countries that highly limit the availability of online use or restrict it entirely?

I can only guess they have a lot of data on file already and are using it to "predict" genocides around the world. I am really curious as to their algorithm for this and how they are able to narrow it down to a specific focus. If they are just searching the internet as a whole, wouldn't their model fail solely because these indicators could be another country talking about a genocide happening and a possibility of one occurring at some point?

Again...would love to see their data on the US and the probability of mass genocide occurring here......

Source

Can mass killings be predicted and prevented?

The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., hopes its new online tool will do just that by making both sophisticated statistical analysis and feedback from experts publicly available for the first time. The goal is to produce early warnings that can help governments, policy makers, advocacy groups and scholars decide where to concentrate their efforts.

"From past genocides in Darfur, Bosnia, Rwanda and the Holocaust, we have learned what the clear early warning signs are that precede mass violence," said Cameron Hudson, director of the museum's Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide. "Tracking those indicators in at-risk countries around the world will, for the first time, allow us to look over the horizon to implement smarter, cheaper and more effective polices that prevent mass violence."

Well....oddly enough, their map states there is a 0.1% chance of genocide occurring in the US.

Source

And some more resources:

Source

History teaches us that mass atrocities are preventable. From the Holocaust to the genocides in Rwanda, Srebrenica, and Darfur, early warning signs of mass violence went unheeded. For the first time, the Early Warning Project gives us a tool to alert policy makers and the public to places where the risk of mass violence is greatest. Together, people around the world can call for action before it’s too late.

Designed by the Museum and Dartmouth College, this tool measures, tracks, and analyzes known risk factors that could lead to a future instance of mass atrocities. The data, along with real-time analysis from regional and genocide experts, generate a forecast. The results allow us—and other organizations—to focus our resources and attention on the countries most at risk.

This seems more along the lines of Minority Report to me.....I wonder what it will actually be used for or if it can be used for preventative measures/actions by the US.....scary thought.

The Early Warning Project is unique. Our system analyzed over 50 years of historical data and dissected the conditions present prior to mass atrocities. We use that historical base to recognize contemporary warning signs in countries around the world and to rank those most at risk.

We use two complementary methods:

Our Statistical Risk Assessment calculates a nation’s predilection to commit atrocities based on current measures of economic and political instability as well as forecasts of future coup attempts and civil wars. Some of the factors measured include authoritarian rule, ethnic power imbalance, exclusionary ideology, and international isolation.

The second strength of our analysis is the Expert Opinion Pool. This pool comprises regional and subject matter experts who respond to specific questions about dynamic events and about countries that may be identified through the statistical risk assessment.

For governments, policy makers, advocates, and others attempting to prevent mass violence, there has been no effective, publicly available mechanism for identifying where mass atrocities are likely to occur. By using the best available methods to routinely assess the risk of mass atrocities in countries worldwide, the Early Warning Project seeks to expand opportunities for preventive action before violence breaks out and to help generate pressure for early and effective response.

Well, sounds as if they have answered my questions...govt's will use this tool as a means to an end.....

I am also wondering what number of people they are accounting for. I think of a genocide as a very large number of people being killed off. I am trying to think of how a program can be written to take into account the numbers to be considered a genocide type occurrence. Would it be 100 for it to be considered genocide, or would it be 10K?

Either way, the manner in which the article and the designers portray its uses seems a bit strange with their referencing government, policy makers and advocates. Just makes me think they are looking at this as a pre-cog effort. I guess that is better than reactionary in this case, but still sits uneasy on the brain.

Back in college I took a class called evil. It's aim was to study evil, from definition to motives to occurrence. Our textbook was titled "humanity" by johnathan Glover. An astounding note I recall about the class was the occurance of genocide. Genocide is the systematic killing of a type of people because people are that type. This often happened as a society builds a scapegoat. Truth is there has been a genicide basically been happening nonstop for some two hundred years. That figure is because there is no good record before that. And genocides are basically pure evil. This may not be the best way to stop the killing but someone is doing something to save innocent lives.

a reply to: Vasa Croe

The pharmaceutical industry in concert with MD's, insurance providers, and your government kill 100k/year with their experimental, synthetic poison.

I predict that in a decade there will be 1M needless deaths.

Is 1M big enough to be a holocaust?

a reply to: Sillyosaurus

Back in college I took a class called evil

I've had it with political correctness.
Back in the day they called it "American History".

originally posted by: InverseLookingGlass
a reply to: Vasa Croe

The pharmaceutical industry in concert with MD's, insurance providers, and your government kill 100k/year with their experimental, synthetic poison.

I predict that in a decade there will be 1M needless deaths.

Is 1M big enough to be a holocaust?

Guess it depends on if they are killing only a certain race or religious following. This is about genocide, not just killing. Got any links to back those numbers up? If they are already at 100K/year then how can you say you predict in 10 years it would be a million....that is just following the numbers you say they are already killing.

I don't know if anyone here watches the TV show The Strain, but last night they had an episode that further detailed the backstory of one of the show's villains, a former Nazi SS who was turned to vampire.

Some of the dialogue in the episode from his time during the rise of the third reich had my husband I looking at each other and raising our eyes. I don't know if it was intentional, but it mirrored some of the rhetoric we hear in society and politics today out of some campaign quarters.

originally posted by: InverseLookingGlass
a reply to: Sillyosaurus

Back in college I took a class called evil

I've had it with political correctness.
Back in the day they called it "American History".

It's called the history of ANY civilization...maybe you forgot that American history only extends roughly 240 years.

originally posted by: ketsuko
I don't know if anyone here watches the TV show The Strain, but last night they had an episode that further detailed the backstory of one of the show's villains, a former Nazi SS who was turned to vampire.

Some of the dialogue in the episode from his time during the rise of the third reich had my husband I looking at each other and raising our eyes. I don't know if it was intentional, but it mirrored some of the rhetoric we hear in society and politics today out of some campaign quarters.

I watch it when it hits Netflix....good series.