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Can mass killings be predicted and prevented?
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., hopes its new online tool will do just that by making both sophisticated statistical analysis and feedback from experts publicly available for the first time. The goal is to produce early warnings that can help governments, policy makers, advocacy groups and scholars decide where to concentrate their efforts.
"From past genocides in Darfur, Bosnia, Rwanda and the Holocaust, we have learned what the clear early warning signs are that precede mass violence," said Cameron Hudson, director of the museum's Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide. "Tracking those indicators in at-risk countries around the world will, for the first time, allow us to look over the horizon to implement smarter, cheaper and more effective polices that prevent mass violence."
History teaches us that mass atrocities are preventable. From the Holocaust to the genocides in Rwanda, Srebrenica, and Darfur, early warning signs of mass violence went unheeded. For the first time, the Early Warning Project gives us a tool to alert policy makers and the public to places where the risk of mass violence is greatest. Together, people around the world can call for action before it’s too late.
Designed by the Museum and Dartmouth College, this tool measures, tracks, and analyzes known risk factors that could lead to a future instance of mass atrocities. The data, along with real-time analysis from regional and genocide experts, generate a forecast. The results allow us—and other organizations—to focus our resources and attention on the countries most at risk.
The Early Warning Project is unique. Our system analyzed over 50 years of historical data and dissected the conditions present prior to mass atrocities. We use that historical base to recognize contemporary warning signs in countries around the world and to rank those most at risk.
We use two complementary methods:
Our Statistical Risk Assessment calculates a nation’s predilection to commit atrocities based on current measures of economic and political instability as well as forecasts of future coup attempts and civil wars. Some of the factors measured include authoritarian rule, ethnic power imbalance, exclusionary ideology, and international isolation.
The second strength of our analysis is the Expert Opinion Pool. This pool comprises regional and subject matter experts who respond to specific questions about dynamic events and about countries that may be identified through the statistical risk assessment.
For governments, policy makers, advocates, and others attempting to prevent mass violence, there has been no effective, publicly available mechanism for identifying where mass atrocities are likely to occur. By using the best available methods to routinely assess the risk of mass atrocities in countries worldwide, the Early Warning Project seeks to expand opportunities for preventive action before violence breaks out and to help generate pressure for early and effective response.
originally posted by: InverseLookingGlass
a reply to: Vasa Croe
The pharmaceutical industry in concert with MD's, insurance providers, and your government kill 100k/year with their experimental, synthetic poison.
I predict that in a decade there will be 1M needless deaths.
Is 1M big enough to be a holocaust?
originally posted by: InverseLookingGlass
a reply to: Sillyosaurus
Back in college I took a class called evil
I've had it with political correctness.
Back in the day they called it "American History".
originally posted by: ketsuko
I don't know if anyone here watches the TV show The Strain, but last night they had an episode that further detailed the backstory of one of the show's villains, a former Nazi SS who was turned to vampire.
Some of the dialogue in the episode from his time during the rise of the third reich had my husband I looking at each other and raising our eyes. I don't know if it was intentional, but it mirrored some of the rhetoric we hear in society and politics today out of some campaign quarters.