Originally posted by sardion2000
Spookyvince,
People said the same thing about the X-Prize when it first started. They said things like "Oh but you can't do that it would require billions for a
company to reach sub-orbit" etc etc. When a Prize is set up for this type of endevor and It'll be sooner rather then later, you and every skeptic
will be proven wrong. We do have the technology, all we need is the financial will to do it and it seems that this could be the starting catalyst.
These are the types of challenges that Humanity usually excels at. These things have been a long time in coming and I say its about fricken time. I do
agree that thier timetable is optimistic, but with enough money I see no reason why it can't be done by 2015 at the earliest but I do not see it
coming any later then 2025 as by then the Private Space Industry will be in full swing. If you want to look at historical parrellels look at the
Aviation Prizes that took place at the beggining of the 20th century. It spawned an Industry in record time. This time it's not gonna take as long,
at least thats my feeling. One last quote I'll leave you with as I believe it affects this area of technology as well.
"From now till 2025 we will see a huge increasing in our technological capabilities, more so then in the entire 20th century combined"
I believe K. Erik Drexler said that particular quote. Another thing he mentioned was that most people will be caught off guard as we as humans tend to
think in linear terms when dealing with technology(ie Assuming its gonna progress the same rate it has in the past) when its not. Technological
progress is increasing exponentially, going faster and faster towards....what? I have no idea.
[edit on 27-12-2004 by sardion2000]
Well I absolutely agree with you on the fact that technology is progressing in a more than linear way, probably even up to exponential. I even posted
something about that in
this thread.
Even though, I remain highly skeptical for several reasons.
First, because you mention it, it took 8 years for the X-Prize to be won. It was started in May 1996. It was won in October 2004. The technology
required to win it was known for decades.
Second, because even if money is there and people are there, there is still a need to actually do it, and it takes years. We're talking now of 10
years delay, according to the project. What is required now is:
- build a spacecraft capable of going to the moon and return on earth
- actually go there and build a base: just a few persons on board of the ship have a mission to build a permanent base, fully equipped, provided with
food and oxygen for several persons during several months...
- of course, full financial support for all those persons, all the hardware involved, supplies, insurances (yeah, they won't do it without an
insurance I guess, it is a commercial thing...)
This seems to me a bit unrealistic... Given the best of fortune, I can picture a scenario:
1. in the next few years (2007-2008), they will have actually build a spacecraft that is capable of doing the return trip, and have it tested
thoroughly to ensure that all of their wealth and future won't just crash or explode
2. starting 2009-2010, they will be able to gather the necessary amount of money to actually buy the materials needed for a moon base: structures for
the housing, telecoms, computers to manage the base and the telecoms...
3. 2010: the launch! They start to go over there and actually build the base. It takes weeks. Only a few persons, and only a part of the material...
They won't just at first do a spacecraft able to carry 40 persons and all they need to build a base in 4 days!
4. 2013-2015: the base is about ready. The original spacecraft is under question: the technology now allow to build a better one. Either they build a
better one, able to carry more, and more safely, or they go on using that old space van. Btw, they need now to equip the base with something that can
last more than a few weeks or just a few months. There is absolutely nothing on the moon to keep the people alive: they need oxygen (and nitrogen, ...
so on: they need air) and they need food, other than tube contained chemical foods...
5. 2016-2018: it is now possible to let 10-12 persons over there for two or three months without resupplying.
6. 2020-2030: huge works of improving the base, the supply stocks,...
7. 2040: the base is now a little city, with about 500 persons.
See my point of view? I am very skeptical. To be honest, I would more easily accept the idea of a permanent colony on Mars, because Mars could be
terraformed (even if not before centuries...). The moon is a rock, it is dead, there is nothing over there to live on. It is nonetheless interesting,
but I don't think a permanent colony over there is anytime soon, and to be honest, I don't even think it would be interesting.
Just my opinions, but that Kennedy Project seems to me to be more like a kid's dream than a human aim. What would be benefit it from? Mars would be
more interesting: it is a planet, it has an atmosphere, and it could (just could...) be made suitable for living.