Major Winter Storm for Dec 22nd & Dec 23

Originally posted by Thug69
There has to be something here for us new jersey people.

Monday morning update...
High pressure building into the Ohio Valley brought us the strong winds and falling temperatures yesterday. Now, as the high moves away, the process will be reversed - southerly winds will start us on a warming trend. The big question mark for the week will be a storm coming northward out of the Gulf Coastal states. This storm will be a big rain- and snow-maker for parts of the Ohio Valley. It is still too early to tell how much snow it will bring our area.

Kentucky to get slammed by major winter storm!

We have been talking about this as a possibility for the past week and it looks like ol' man winter is going to deliver. For some areas of the state, this could be the biggest snow since the "dusting" of 1998. Let me caution you here that this will NOT be as widespread with the heavy snow as that one was. Probably not even close.
The midday models continue to trend toward the eastward scenario I outlined yesterday. I have been on board for the low travelling from Louisiana into eastern Tennessee to near Pittsburgh by Thursday. I can still find now reason to deviate from that. The models are heading in that direction and the major puch of arctic air heading down the plains is likely being underplayed by the models. That underplaying is likely leading to a slightly more westward track. The depth of the cold and the track of the low are always important in forecasting winter storms. That importance is amplified this go around because of the holiday travel period and because of the overall amount precipitation expected. Not to mention the bitter cold that follows the storm.

What is my call? Well it is still a bit early. Here is a quick look at what I am expecting to happen across the state. Let's start with the east. East of a line from Mt. Sterling to London seem to be predominately rain. That said, a quick heavy snowfall is possible before the event ends on Thursday.

In the counties along and just west of I-75, including the Lexington Metro, a wintry mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain and maybe some snow will develop on Wednesday. This will then likely make a quick transition to heavy snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning with several inches possible. This is the area that could also see some significant icing.
From E-Town to Augusta and points north and west, a snowstorm looks to be in the cards. Someone in this area could get a foot or more of snow into Thursday. THIS IS ONLY A PRELIMINARY CALL ON MY PART. Until I become certain of the lows exact track, that is as specific as I can get. You are urged to continue to check back in for the latest forecasts on this developing winter storm.

You may actually see some watches going up for parts of the state this afternoon. Those would likely be from the NWS offices in Paducah and Louisville. One particular forecaster (Mr. Funk) at Louisville has had an excellent handle on this storm for a few days now. By the way, thanks for reading the blog! This could also be the coldest Christmas since 1989 for much of Kentucky as below zero temps are looking more and more like a possibility.

Originally posted by UM_Gazz
We had wind chills here in the single digits this morning.. that just ain't right!

Originally posted by Jonna
It took me 25 minutes this morning just to de-ice the cardoor lock. Gf's car would not even start. Welcome to winter!

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADRIAN...ANN ARBOR...DOWNTOWN DETROIT...
MONROE...MOUNT CLEMENS...PONTIAC AND PORT HURON
430 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO IN ST CLAIR COUNTY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...
BRINGING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY FROM ANN ARBOR TO PORT HURON.

Originally posted by DontTreadOnMe
Here's SE Michigan:

link

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OFF AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW IN THE CARBONDALE... MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS AREA... AND RAIN IN THE HOPKINSVILLE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A MAYFIELD KENTUCKY TO CALHOUN KENTUCKY LINE... WHERE SLEET... SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

THE PRECIPITATION... HEAVY AT TIMES... WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS... OVER 8 INCHES IN SOME AREAS... WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING CONDITIONS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ALONG A LINE FROM SIKESTON MISSOURI TO EVANSVILLE INDIANA. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF POPLAR BLUFF... CAPE GIRARDEAU... PADUCAH... HARRISBURG... AND HENDERSON.

Originally posted by Indy
Im thinking if you drew a line that connected Evansville, IN, Cincinnati, OH, Columbus, OH and Cleveland, OH you'd find the bad stuff to the north and west of that line. I'd guess there would be a heavy snow belt in the range of 75 to 125 miles from that line. There will be much more snow covering a much larger area but this path is where you may see well inexcess of a foot of snow. Some places may see locally two feet.

Keep in mind that forecast models are known to change. But since you have basicall 2-1/2 days notice there isn't much room for error.