Kim Jong-un Coup Attempt: North Korean Leader may have Fled Pyongyang Amid Threats to Life

originally posted by: Max_TO
If the news is correct I would guess that the planning for this coup started when little Kim did away with his Uncle . If we remember, when Kim first took over as the new leader it was really his Aunt and Uncle that would hold the true power until he was older, or done away with.

Very interesting...

What confuses me is that Kim's uncle was a moderate, the sort of person you would want as a political ally. Kim having him executed not only severed that tie but broke the national taboo that all members of the Kim family are politically untouchable.

It seems to me like I don't understand their political structure enough because that's a move that seems crazy to me, and Kim Jong Un strikes me as being rather intelligent, he would have to be if he wanted to be prepared to take over a country where things are only stable due to the loyalty of your generals.

a reply to: Aazadan

Here's a thought i was kicking around...it's probably crap, but still, i'll put it out there...

What if he didn't have his uncle killed?

What if he's not actually running NK?

For the purposes of this post, i'll call these shadowy behind-the-curtain showrunners the "KPTB", or the "Korean powers that be"

So let's say the ACTUAL people running the show in NK are actually chinese, assigned by Beijing to "handle" NK...So these KPTB are pulling the strings of the puppet North Korean government, and Kim Jong Un is just a figurehead.

Let's suppose that after Kim Jong Il dies, the Chinese move in, take control of the NK government, "for the sake of the party". They do this because they don't believe Un can be like his father, and that given his western education, and affinity for the trappings, and excesses of western life, that he may not be a true communist, and might want to try reunification. The Chinese, of course cannot allow this, as it would remove their "buffer"....because let's face it, that's all they've ever seen North Korea as; a buffer to keep the filthy imperialist, capitalist, western and American swines away.

So they come in, take over, and they tell him(Un) that it's gonna be like this, and like that, inform him that he's not actually in charge of anything, and that it will be business as usual, only nobody will have any real power, except the Chinese handlers. The uncle starts to make a stink, so he's bumped off, before he can say anything too damaging. This does two things: it serves as a demonstration of Chinese authority, a sort of rewriting of the pecking order. It also is basically a smack-down to the Kim family, with China saying "you're going to do as your told, or you're going to die. None of you are untouchable." Un is told to shut his mouth, sit down, and follow orders.

The child king attempts to subvert Chinese authority, by working behind their backs with loyalists, is found out, arrested, imprisoned by the Chinese, and a lame story is issued, implying that he's ill, or whatever.

Meanwhile, his sister, who is either operating under duress, or has demonstrated her ability and willingness to follow the orders of the party, is installed, to run things for now.

The officials visiting the south is odd, as it could either be them going to ask for help, or following party orders(with the understanding that if they don't that "dear leader" will be executed) to tell the south how it is now.

And so we have defectors with sources in the north telling us what's actually going on, and we have official press releases from NK saying "everything's cool, nothing to see here"


Like i said, maybe this is all crap, but i figured i'd toss it out there anyway. what do y'all think?

I commented on the last thread regarding a possible coup, and even though I have not delved into the possibility from a factual point of view, from a strictly logical and militaristic point of view I still do not think such a coup is likely. I think that if some group is trying to overthrow the government then the lockdown is just a precautionary measure, rather than an act that is indicative of the threat level or the success of a rebel force. In fact, I think it is quite possible that what has been going on is due to something completely different altogether. Any coup would originate in Pyongyang, which incidentally would be the most difficult place for such a coup to succeed.

The people who may secretly harbor ill will towards Jong-Un in any significant numbers are going to be those who are starving, which basically means those living outside of the capital city, as those within Pyongyang are doing quite well in comparison. Granted that there would still be opposition within that city to some degree, but considering the indoctrination policies of most countries with a single, all-powerful leader, few would be willing to rise up against him for fear they will lose their own lives. Of course there are historical precedents for such rebellions, but usually a mass movement must take place before a large portion of the population rises up against the government. Usually there are protests or other forms of disobedience to the state. That is partly why outlawing protests can make unification of the population more difficult, especially in NK where the internet is not utilized or even available like it is in western or more advanced nations.

I just feel that Jong-Un would have too much military support for a coup to succeed. One may definitely start, but I don't feel it would last very long. Perhaps one of the methods they could use to increase their chances of success is eliminating Jong-Un beforehand, making a takeover of the rest of the government easier to a certain degree. I do not doubt that there are people who want change, but most of these people are not suffering like the rest of the population, and they know that failure will mean certain death. There are of course many variables, as well as multiple ways to interpret the information coming out of NK. Heck, we don't even know which information is accurate. So I will stick to my guns and maintain that an internal coup is not going to succeed, even if it is happening. But with that said, a western-backed coup is a possibility. While some may not believe it, I think there is the possibility that China would actually help the US to eliminate Jong-Un.

China and NK are allies for sure, but I think China is changing and that they are not so keen on North Korea's actions, nor are they ready to defend the potential whims of Jong-Un. There is certainly not the same rapport with Jong-Un and China as there was with Jong-Il and China. And any western plot to take Jong-Un would have to go through China, as they are one of the only countries who can actually get assets inside the nation; assets who can blend in and go unnoticed. Not saying this is a given by any means, but it makes a certain amount of sense. China has become more sensible as time has gone on, at least in my opinion, and they are opening up their country more and more to various western ideals, including a broader sense of personal freedom. They are changing and I think that they must realize that North Korea is likely to do them more harm than good, at least from an economic and political perspective. From a purely military perspective North Korea is quite useful for a variety of reasons, but military actions or a nation's armed forces in general do not function independent of politics and government.

a reply to: Daedalus

It's something to think about but I don't think it's correct at all. Not only did Kim's uncle push for closer relations with China (China being a major stabilizing force with NK) but China supports reunification. If the two Koreas become one, or even set aside their differences the US loses all pretenses of keeping a massive military base in Asia. China has no need for a buffer state if they're able to get the US out of the area.

a reply to: Aazadan

i dunno about all that..

i've never heard that China supports reunification. it seems that would be counter to their goals.

if the two koreas become one, china would probably lose all ability to control a unified Korea, as the country would now be in no way, communist. they would have a land border with a western-influenced country...everything i've seen says they don't want that.

if the Korea was to unify, it would probably be business as usual, by southern standards, with them lifting the north's quality of living, and bringing them into the 21st century.

He many not have left the country, he could be imprisoned, or already executed. North Korea's second and third man suddenly visiting South Korea, that wouldn't be allowed if Kim was in charge. Now they just wait for the right moment to announce Kim Jong Un as traitor, incompetent or just dead. He is obviously no longer in charge, he was removed from office by military, there is coup going on.

a reply to: AnteBellum
I know you were joking because a tranny would never go topless...

www.horsecollaborative.com...

a reply to: daaskapital

Please refer to my predictions about North Korea.

I predicted that China will arrange a re-unification of North Korea and South Korea; and a unified Korea will leave USA orbit.

The Korea will revert back to its tradition of paying tribute to the Chinese emperor.

USA will face a collapse of its East Asia strategy.

a reply to: Aloysius the Gaul

Not to mention a flood of refugees into China and South Korea.

originally posted by: Daedalus
a reply to: Aazadan

i dunno about all that..

i've never heard that China supports reunification. it seems that would be counter to their goals.

if the two koreas become one, china would probably lose all ability to control a unified Korea, as the country would now be in no way, communist. they would have a land border with a western-influenced country...everything i've seen says they don't want that.

if the Korea was to unify, it would probably be business as usual, by southern standards, with them lifting the north's quality of living, and bringing them into the 21st century.

I'll explain. NK is to China what Israel is to the US. They are both completely crazy but we have taken it upon ourselves to support them. At this point that support is what keeps them stable. In the case of China they support NK for a few reasons:
1. They want more nations following their system of government. It's a prestige thing.
2. China cannot handle the immigrants from NK should the country collapse. It's better and cheaper for them to keep a power structure in NK that keeps the people there.
3. Due to the Korean War there is a large contingent of US troops in SK. China wisely wants a buffer state between rival powers.

Modernizing NK solves many of these issues. In the first case the nation becomes able to provide for it's people. No more famines, electricity, actual cities, and so on. An improved North Korea (under a new leader... Un fits this bill) shows the world that Communism can work. It also removes the danger of the country collapsing. Over time NK learns job skills and gets educated, this lets them act between the Chinese and the SK as equals.

When those gaps have closed there will be little separating NK from SK anymore which is cause to end the war. From that point they can reunify. When that happens the US bases are moved out of NK which China, SK, NK, and the US would all support.

China wants people in NK who can modernize and improve things. It makes things much better for them if so. It could also lead to their nuclear disarmament one day (something China also supports).

a reply to: daaskapital

I heard he left north Korea to go somewhere that has legalized gay marriage so he could finally marry his gay lover. He's not just a power bottom he's a powerful bottom. He wants to redistribute the wealth of his fat #ing ample bosom.

There are a lot of people in South Korea who support re-unification despite "communism" in North. Maybe communism is not such a big issue.

I think South Korea can pay for North Korea's development. South has an export focused economy and North's labor force can be easily absorbed by South's large companies.

Yes the combined entity will be "democratic". Maybe China feels comfortable with that. Today's China is different. It is no longer insecure about its own position in the world.

a reply to: safetymeeting

Lmao, imagine if the entire world had an Ebola pandemic and NK were the only country left that wasn't infected...

If the health rumor is a lie then it was made by Kim. I saw a video of his first appearance in a month in the news and he was limping quite noticeably.I dunno how to embed but you should check it out on youtube.
Not a biased video by the way, it's official footage from North Korean cameras.

Just in case.

I've been somewhat following this. We can only hope it is true. Hopefully that stupid Fat Kid is overthrown and the people in that country who have suffering for decades can finally be helped. Maybe his sister is more of a reasonable human being.

originally posted by: Aazadan

originally posted by: Daedalus
a reply to: Aazadan

i dunno about all that..

i've never heard that China supports reunification. it seems that would be counter to their goals.

if the two koreas become one, china would probably lose all ability to control a unified Korea, as the country would now be in no way, communist. they would have a land border with a western-influenced country...everything i've seen says they don't want that.

if the Korea was to unify, it would probably be business as usual, by southern standards, with them lifting the north's quality of living, and bringing them into the 21st century.

I'll explain. NK is to China what Israel is to the US. They are both completely crazy but we have taken it upon ourselves to support them. At this point that support is what keeps them stable. In the case of China they support NK for a few reasons:
1. They want more nations following their system of government. It's a prestige thing.
2. China cannot handle the immigrants from NK should the country collapse. It's better and cheaper for them to keep a power structure in NK that keeps the people there.
3. Due to the Korean War there is a large contingent of US troops in SK. China wisely wants a buffer state between rival powers.

Modernizing NK solves many of these issues. In the first case the nation becomes able to provide for it's people. No more famines, electricity, actual cities, and so on. An improved North Korea (under a new leader... Un fits this bill) shows the world that Communism can work. It also removes the danger of the country collapsing. Over time NK learns job skills and gets educated, this lets them act between the Chinese and the SK as equals.

When those gaps have closed there will be little separating NK from SK anymore which is cause to end the war. From that point they can reunify. When that happens the US bases are moved out of NK which China, SK, NK, and the US would all support.

China wants people in NK who can modernize and improve things. It makes things much better for them if so. It could also lead to their nuclear disarmament one day (something China also supports).

Assume for a moment the fat kid is overthrown and unification is imminent.

We could logically, and safely integrate them into the world. I understand there would be an attempted HUGE influx into South Korea.
However, if we see this problem before it begins, we can contain these people, similar to how Nazi prisoners were kept in the concentration camps after they were liberated, to keep them and the surrounding people safe. I understand a concentration camp is much more manageable than an entire country, but I think with international support this could be the same. China does not want the influx, Russia would not want it, and there is a huge zone on their border with South Korea. This leaves only the sea. The implements are already in place, the people already isolated. If this coup is true and the North Korean Army can be disarmed peacefully, this may be the most significant development in World politics since Vietnam.

If there is a coup it better be of youngsters without out delusions of grandeur,and boy if they missed this up look for hardliners to go bunkers , not a good thing if they tried and failed they better win .

A palace coup under the direction of The Chinese? As another poster has pointed out a unified Korea doesn't serve their interests as long as the US base is there in SK.We should know more by the 10th if Kim Jong Un shows up then it's business as usual down there if it's his sister then we may very well be entering a new era.

I Totally disagree with both Aloysius the Gaul and daaskcapital!! A coup is good news for the people of North Korea because the dictatorship that exists there could hardly be worse. Therefore the more changes of North Korean leadership there are, the higher the probability or a 1989 style implosion of totalitarianism (that is otherwise at least rationally, militarily undefeatable).

In Addition The Signs Are Extremely Good…

04/10/14 North and South Korea have agreed to resume formal high-level talks that had effectively been suspended since February, reports from South Korea say.
The agreement came during a surprise visit to South Korea by North Korean officials for the closing ceremony of the Asian Games.
The visit was led by two top-ranking North Korean officials seen as close aides to leader Kim Jong-un.

Meanwhile, North Korea's ambassador to the UN, So Se Pyong, said on Friday that the country was ready to resume talks on its nuclear programme.
In an interview with Reuters news agency, Mr So also said the North was not planning any missile or nuclear tests. www.bbc.co.uk...

North Korea’s eternal state of war, does not personally serve even the Generals in North Korea (because even these people are now suffering shortages of certain goods) this has long been the case but there are reasons why they may be challenging Kim-Jung now…
1. He is even less interested in rational economic reforms than his daddy –something that must be making the powerful question their path.
2. The economic ideas he does have, seem to be further wrecking the country…
North Korea Ski Resort: www.bbc.co.uk...
3. He seems exceptionally brutal to those around him –perhaps too brutal.
4. He likes spending his free time picking pretty girls for music concerts, rather than running the country –this potentially makes him vulnerable to those around him.

Kim made his last public appearance on 3 September, when he attended a concert given by the Moranbong Band - an all-girl musical troupe reputedly hand-picked by the leader himself.
State newspaper Rodong Sinmun showed Mr Kim sitting in comfortable front-row seats, alongside his wife Ri Sol-ju. www.bbc.co.uk...

It seems those around him have (metaphorically) simply given him enough chocolate to drown himself in it. Let’s hope this will be good news, for one of the world’s both most suppressed people, and political systems.

Personally…
I have long thought the way to make North Korea a democracy is to offer those who run it immunity for their crimes against humanity, and more money than they could ever spend.
This is the way to do it, because at the end of the day there’s a lot of powerful people in North Korea who don’t have everything they need. In addition to lacking material goods they live under fear, but fear only works if the person behind giving the fear is focussed on his job of both causing fear and competently delivering it.
It seems Kim Jung-un has been more focussed on pleasure, and that

War would be stupid (because with their WMD’s war could easily kill more people, than there actually are North Koreans).
Meanwhile I understand NK is unlikely to want immunity for their crimes against humanity, given this involves trust, and they already possess a far more stable guarantee of criminal immunity simply by remaining within NK (and keeping it a dictatorship).

However there is no harm in South Korea ensuring that (if NK’s leaders did want to give up the insecurities of wondering which want to be despot, is going to stab their despotic back… In exchange for the less stressful life a multi-millionaire lifestyle) then both the offer, and immunity in law, would be there.

He sprained his ankle in a one on one with Dennis Rodman...
He still won...

Seriously though...
Any coup against Kim will fail...

I like the guy so I'm biased, but I say good luck to him...
Things have improved in the DPRK because of him...
& Rome wasn't built in a day...

Give the young Jedi time to prove he isn't part of the Darkside!!!