Could the Ebola Outbreak Last Forever?

a reply to: openminded2011

right,,,they can't just pop down to the local grocery

the "Skin so Soft truck",, in the background is doing business,,but pizza place is out of the question,,???

ohh and just to keep up to date,,

Biological Hazard in Switzerland on Wednesday, 24 September, 2014

paraphrasing,,

"Ebola could have arrived in Switzerland.
A suspected case is currently being treated in Geneva.
But for the Swiss population, "there is no danger," .
Since yesterday, Switzerland has its first suspected case.
The patient is treated in Geneva."

scary part,,

"The foreign nurse was bitten in Sierra Leone from an infected child."


"bitten from an infected child"

need i say anymore???

a reply to: BobAthome

Bob - Have you not read the H2H thread? ...Genetic sequencing says this Ebola epidemic is just passing human-to-human. It's not coming from bushmeat now.

a reply to: BobAthome

Speaking of biting, check this out (please): Why Quarantine Won't Stop the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

well more drugs they will MAKE you take!
most of us sit at computers any way.
so we all just stay at home.
if you go out put on your Bio suit.
still got some from the last scear

a reply to: buddha

My focus is on protecting the environment from further contamination, cleaning it up and slowing down virus and microbial evolution. We can't keep up! and PS. Hiding out might help at first but not in the long run.

a reply to: soficrow

Others chiming in:

An idea long viewed as an unlikely possibility is now becoming increasingly real: Ebola might not go away for a very long time.

And just why might this happen?

The obvious comes to mind:

Unlike past outbreaks, in which Ebola emerged in the sparsely populated countryside of Central Africa, this outbreak has become an exponentially spreading urban menace.

But oddly enough, it's not this aspect of the outbreak which would keep it going. After all, while the bigger, faster outbreak in a densely populated city will result in huge numbers of cases, deaths, and the aftermath thereof, there is another aspect of the outbreak which most do not consider.

In some parts of West Africa, such as the rural area in southwestern Guinea near where the outbreak began, there are troubling indications that infections are continuing at relatively low but steady level from week-to-week.

That suggests a simmering, steady-state rate of transmission that is just as troubling as the exponential growth observed in the outbreak as a whole, according to Christopher Dye, the World Health Organization's director of strategy. 

This type of infection chain could continue on long after a large and flashy outbreak would appear to be contained; resulting in the ongoing potential for another flare up after everyone's guard is let down.

"The question we're raising is to put in people's minds that the epidemic might not be eliminated from the human population completely for a very long time," Dye said this week in an interview from Geneva. Unless global intervention begins to kick in soon, "at the moment we see no reason why that steady state will not continue to go on and on," he said.

But here comes the researcher from Tulane to assuage our concerns.

"I actually don't buy it; I don't see how this disease could become endemic," Bausch said. "It would have to become much less deadly so you would have something where this can be maintained in a human population independently, long-term -- independently of its maintenance in the wild. You would have to have drastic mutations of the virus."

Not quite sure I buy what Bausch is selling...

Terrifying new normal? An Ebola outbreak that never really goes away.

a reply to: L.A.B

haha. ...."Forever" meaning endemic in the environment - seasonal like the flu, or like malaria. Meaning isolated outbreaks in isolated villages are a thing of the past - Ebola is always around.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

EXCELLENT article. Thank you.

PS. Not sure I buy what Bausch is selling either.



PPS. Comments? Why Quarantine Won't Stop the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa

a reply to: soficrow

The problem with saying quarantine will not contain the problem is like saying a hose will not put out a fire, so why bother?

It most certainly will not be contained if people are allowed to travel willy nilly with no quarantine. At least if we quarantine the region the chance of a global pandemic is much reduced.

I ask: how much of a chance for human to human transfer of ebola, compared to the chance of fruit bat to human transfer?

We either take the steps we know that will help reduce the spread...or we just throw up our hands and wait for infection...

I think it is a stupid argument. Do what you can...otherwise not doing anything would not help at all. I am 60 years old...should I throw up my hands and declare I am about to die and then not take appropriate steps (common sense health practices) to prolong my life, or should I eat well, get some exercise and hope I get a few extra years?

a reply to: bbracken677

fyi - water causes oil based fires to flare and spread. Absolutely NEVER get the hose out. Similarly, epidemiologists know quarantine can't contain animal-borne diseases - and also know the protocols involving early diagnosis, contact tracing etc. absolutely DO work - provided there is adequate manpower. ...The point is not just to do something, but to do the right thing quickly.

im not really too worried about it becoming an issue world wide.
it is for sure going to take out tons of people in africa. i dont think so much in other parts of the world.

we heard the same song and dance years back with the bird flu. we were all supposed to be dead already.

dont you remember when they were pumping us up with that fear? people all over the world walking around with respirators....

im sure this ebola thing is going to be nasty. im sure it will spread to the us and other places on a small scale.

i dont see ebola turning into this pandemic and wiping out most of the population.

people in africa are looking at tough times ahead but when are they not.

they need to get with the program a little bit and start burning these bodies. forget about the religious beliefs.

i think obama and other world leaders should make sure that is happening before citizens of other countries are shipped in to help.
fact is theyre not doing everything they can be doing.

Read my post again.All I can add is:With a stick.It looked like it was drawn in the sand with a stick.a reply to: TheLaughingGod

a reply to: soficrow

Good answer and thankyou

I get the feeling the country this pathogen has started in, we shall not see it's shadow for a while.

Hopefully it doesn't mutate and remains transmissable, but avoidable like HIV.


watch the void.

a reply to: Raxoxane

I see.. just sounded a little weird, this part: "That's the Ebola virus", like it was a symbol of the virus or something, and if "Ebola virus" was written, saying "That's the Ebola virus" seems kind of redundant..

Not being skeptical, just a little confused.

a reply to: soficrow

In West Africa, pigs commonly dig up Ebola victims' graves. Thing is, pigs catch Ebola and worst of all - Ebola transmission in pigs is airborne.

F--- me!

Talk about vectoring.

Mmm, pork anyone?

I can't even imagine what other scenarios like this might be undiscovered as yet. Since Ebola loves red blood in general animals can get it and give it back to humans.

Birds fly a long ways on migrations, for instance. I wonder if the vultures can get it from carrion like dead pigs that get it from like dead humans?

Vultures soar for miles and land on red meat whenever they can. Then flies land on the same meat and zip into town for some human blood…

a reply to: bbracken677

It most certainly will not be contained if people are allowed to travel willy nilly with no quarantine.

Interesting point. So add Ebola to preflight screening. Not only will you take off your shoes and be bombarded with X-rays, we'll need you to get to the airport three weeks before your flight for quarantine.

originally posted by: intrptr
a reply to: soficrow

In West Africa, pigs commonly dig up Ebola victims' graves. Thing is, pigs catch Ebola and worst of all - Ebola transmission in pigs is airborne.

F--- me!

Talk about vectoring.

Mmm, pork anyone?

I can't even imagine what other scenarios like this that might be undiscovered as yet. Since Ebola loves red blood in general animal can get it and give it back to humans.

Birds fly a long ways on migrations, for instance. I wonder if the vultures there can get it from carrion like dead pigs that get it from like dead humans?

I would be worried if fish were able to contract it. It seems that all mammals and possibly birds can be infected with ebola, which has always been airborne contrary to what the propaganda says. I would have expected outbreaks to already have started in the US by now. There must be some reason why they have not. Either the animals are not getting to the US or the population has been vaccinated somehow without their knowing or there are outbreaks we don't know about. I don't know how these outbreaks of enterovirus are connected with the situation, but I suspect that they are. I just hope we don't see outbreaks of the genetically engineered Ebolapox.

originally posted by: intrptr
a reply to: soficrow

In West Africa, pigs commonly dig up Ebola victims' graves. Thing is, pigs catch Ebola and worst of all - Ebola transmission in pigs is airborne.

F--- me!

Talk about vectoring.

Mmm, pork anyone?

I can't even imagine what other scenarios like this that might be undiscovered as yet. Since Ebola loves red blood in general animal can get it and give it back to humans.

Birds fly a long ways on migrations, for instance. I wonder if the vultures there can get it from carrion like dead pigs that get it from like dead humans?

One very possible scenario are ebola martyrs. Boko Haram operates in areas with ebola infections. Al Shabab is not far away from these areas. It would be easy for jihadis to infect themselves and get on an airplane to Chicago. Currently there are thousands of jihadis in the US from different organizations. I'm sure they have thought of this. Ebola has an incubation period of up to 21 days. It has been detected in semen 82 days after infection. Ebola has been transmitted through semen 7 weeks after the guy had recovered. You really wouldn't need a person anyway. Ebola can survive on surfaces for several days, especially at colder temperatures. All you would have to do is mail it to someone.

a reply to: Adaluncatif

Yah, it seems it is still being contained in Africa. I'm with you I don't understand why it hasn't been reported elsewhere yet either.

You would think that if it "bounces around" in the region between countries there, that it would "bounce around" the world by now.

Then again you could be right, they aren't telling us. They didn't tell us about the effects of radiation during development, testing and deployment of nuclear weapons. The didn't tell us about Love Canal, or dangers of Fracking, they aren't telling us anything about Fukushima anymore… i expect if Ebola goes world wide, they will try and hide that too.

Fishes might get it somehow? They migrate everywhere. I was wondering if mosquitos or some other biting insect could carry abroad a shipping container of fruit, maybe. Insects migrate all the time that way. Blood suckers could carry it with them and go undetected. Maybe even infect the crew. Rats helped spread the Bubonic plague that way into Europe.

a reply to: Adaluncatif


I forgot the intentional spread. Bio weapons are poor mans nukes. now with Ebola racing around in Africa, it would be a lot easier to spread it by intentionally getting infected and boarding a plane or…

I could even imagine a scenario where a ship is used to travel around to different ports, releasing a few freshly exposed members to wander the towns, shaking hands with everyone and coughing in their face.

Excuse me hello, could you tell me where the nearest train depot, bus station and hospital is?