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Doubt the record breaking jobs figures? So does the ABS.
You've no doubt seen reports that 121,000 jobs were created in August. That's the Bureau of Statistics' best guess anyway.
No doubt it's a very educated guess - the bureau interviews around 60,000 people a month to ensure that's the case - but it's still a statistical estimate based on that survey.
What you may not have seen in most reports is that the ABS is only 95 per cent sure that the actual number of jobs created in Australia last month was somewhere between 63,400 and 178,600.
That's right, the magical number of 121,000 is just the midpoint of a range of estimates the bureau constructs from its survey, and seasonally adjusts based on historical experience.
The revered unemployment rate is no different - the ABS says there's a 95 per cent likelihood it's somewhere between 5.7 and 6.5 per cent.
originally posted by: khnum
In June the unemployment rate was 6 per cent.
In July it rose to 6.4 percent the highest in a decade.
Now in August we have 121 000 new jobs the highest ever recorded in this current series which has been running since 1978.
The rate is now back to 6.1 per cent some states like Victoria reduced their rate around 1 per cent,South Australia whose government is a basket case miraculously lost 2.5 per cent.
These numbers have had incredulous responses from many experts Warren Hogan the ANZ Banks' chief economist puts it bluntly,"there is no way this economy created 121 000 jobs in the month"
Recently the government has been under a lot of pressure with the loss of the motor vehicle industry,Ford,Toyota and GM are pulling out,the loss of much manufacturing and massive retrenchment in mining and construction,I cant help but think maybe they got to the Bureau of Statistics and demanded they produce some good news,even if it means providing spurious results.
originally posted by: mortex
This very issue was even discussed in the MAIN STREAM NEWS MEDIA not that long ago.
Have you been paying attention?