Cause of global warming hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean

Following rapid warming in the late 20th century, this century has so far seen surprisingly little increase in the average temperature at the Earth’s surface. At first this was a blip, then a trend, then a puzzle for the climate science community.

“There are recurrent cycles that are salinity-driven that can store heat deep in the Atlantic and Southern oceans,” Tung said. “After 30 years of rapid warming in the warm phase, now it’s time for the cool phase.”

The oscillations have a natural switch. During the warm period, faster currents cause more tropical water to travel to the North Atlantic, warming both the surface and the deep water. At the surface this warming melts ice. This slowly makes the surface water there less dense and after a few decades puts the brakes on the circulation, setting off a 30-year cooling phase.

link to article.

So, I guess I should wait for this scientist to be discredited before I read anymore. But it sure does seem as if his findings are of a natural cycle, which seems to fit the data much better than previous ideas. Since we have not slowed down our pollution much at all over the last 10 years, our CO2 output is still happening, yet the Global temps are not rising as expected, perhaps it's time to start looking at other reasons for these events. Maybe this is just normal Earth climate taking place.

oh...but no no...

They are stating that it's just...well...a pause...

For some reason, global warming trends which are due to human CO2 output...apparently....are taking a pause.

The nature simply can't keep up with us.

But, it will be back...and worst than ever....buahahahhaha (with deep booming voice).


Anyway...never mind the setbacks...man made GW is here to stay. It's just resting a bit...for the final push.

edit:

The oscillations have a natural switch. During the warm period, faster currents cause more tropical water to travel to the North Atlantic, warming both the surface and the deep water. At the surface this warming melts ice. This slowly makes the surface water there less dense and after a few decades puts the brakes on the circulation, setting off a 30-year cooling phase.

I like it how they know exactly what is happening and why. Makes me proud to be human. Universe holds no secrets from us...

a reply to: network dude

the current state of Climate Science:

- There is a theory that increased CO2 in the atmosphere will cause warming. Therefore, any period of warming (eg. late 1970s to late 1990s) is PROOF our theory is correct

- There is a theory that the warming will cause all manner of extreme weather events. Therefore, any extreme weather event (regardless of how often they occurred in the past) are proof our theory is correct.

- The warming has taken a hiatus. This does not contradict our theory, but we have many more theories regarding what is causing it:

We have hypothesised that everything from volcanic eruptions and sulphur from Chinese power stations to heat being trapped deep in the oceans could be the cause.

or perhaps

A shift in the salinity of the north Atlantic triggered the effect around the turn of the century, the study says, as surface water there became saltier and more dense, sinking and taking surface heat down to depths of more than 300 metres.

or

The hiatus really is a patchwork problem of lots of different things, volcanoes, the Pacific, the Atlantic."

or

There is evidence that the hiatus is a northern hemisphere winter phenomenon,

I'd rather they just say they dont really know.

But either way the end of the world is still on its way. Unless we pay more tax

Most importantly, this paper is another a nail in the coffin of the idea that the hiatus is evidence that our projections of long term climate change need revising down. Variability in the ocean will not affect long-term climate trends but may mean we have a period of accelerated warming to look forward to.

So don't breath out just yet. We're still all doomed its just going to take a little longer. At least 15 years apparently.

But the finding suggests that a naturally occurring ocean cycle burying the heat will flip in around 15 years’ time, causing global temperature rises to accelerate again.

So while, the period of correlation between CO2 concentration rise and temperature lasted just 20 years (late 70s to late 90s) and the hiatus could now last over 15 years, the theory of disastrous climate change lives on!

If temperatures rise, if ice melts, if extreme weather occurs: that's evidence for climate change.

But If temperatures don't rise, if ice grows, if weather is just normal, well we will make sure we have another explanation for that, of course still related to climate change.

This, is my take on the current state of Climate Science!! We just dont know!

All I know is, climate change or no climate change. We are damaging the planet. Reducing waste and pollution and stopping the destruction of natural habitats is hardly going to do us any harm is it.

a reply to: Silicis n Volvo

I'd rather they just say they dont really know.

Ah...but alas...they can not. The funding could be withdrawn...it's best to speculate wildly and call it science.

originally posted by: Silicis n Volvo
All I know is, climate change or no climate change. We are damaging the planet and reducing waste and pollution and stopping the destruction of natural habitats is hardly going to do us any harm is it.

On that, we agree fully. I just wish it could be accomplished without being beaten with the fear stick.

I'll just be happy that they are admitting that there is a hiatus.

Baby steps. It takes the pressure off of them so that they don't have to push falsified data.

originally posted by: Silicis n Volvo
a reply to: network dude



This, is my take on the current state of Climate Science!! We just dont know!

All I know is, climate change or no climate change. We are damaging the planet and reducing waste and pollution and stopping the destruction of natural habitats is hardly going to do us any harm is it.

Brilliant and yes I agree.

Not sure what's wrong with saying "we don't know."

Lol... who's in denial about climate change now.

Can't be true because it can't be taxed.

You still need to be carbon taxed.

This will obviously make everything better just like all other taxes do.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

You still need to be carbon taxed.

This will obviously make everything better just like all other taxes do.

Taxes fix everything.
They are also preventative. They prevent my wallet from becoming overfilled.

What's being described in this article has a very good exhibit at one of the Smithsonians in DC.

It was very cool to see the path the water takes in its trek around the globe.

This article also goes well with the thread that was showing volcanos under the glaciers. I can't find it, it was just posted yesterday though.

a reply to: network dude

I find this helpful in evaluating AGW models.


BTW, don't trust a climate model that won't run forward and backward. And lastly, don't trust a climate model covering 100 years when the weather models diverge after no more that 72 hours.

Models are not reality. It's pure Sophistry. They need to be treated with a large dose of skepticism.

originally posted by: butcherguy
They are also preventative. They prevent my wallet from becoming overfilled.

Well, maybe if you were not a greedy, polluting slob we would not have to tax you into oblivion.

Now, excuse me, I have to call Mr. Gore, there has been another Manbearpig sighting.

I'm cereal.

originally posted by: network dude
So, I guess I should wait for this scientist to be discredited before I read anymore. But it sure does seem as if his findings are of a natural cycle, which seems to fit the data much better than previous ideas. Since we have not slowed down our pollution much at all over the last 10 years, our CO2 output is still happening, yet the Global temps are not rising as expected, perhaps it's time to start looking at other reasons for these events. Maybe this is just normal Earth climate taking place.

It is all normal Earth climate taking place plus added human warming.

What this science is actually about (and not snarky BS like I read here): there are decadal-long oscillations and fluctuations in global ocean circulation. At some points of this process more heat from the SURFACE is taken into the ocean, which, all else being equal, cools the surface. Because energy is conserved, at some point that heat has to go somewhere (oceans have an enormous heat capacity), and in later parts of that cycle that heat comes back up and, all else being equal, warms the climate on the SURFACE.

Here's the deal: the temperature measurements which have 'paused' (gone up less than a naive model predicts) measure the SURFACE temperature. But that's not all of the physics, it's the heat in the deep ocean which matters very much---and when you measure that (this is starting to be done), you find no pause whatsoever---it's going up and up, and obviously will cause sea level rise.

Without human changes to the atmosphere, this cycle now would be putting us into a cold spell for a few dozen years. But because of increased radiation from the atmosphere, it's warmer than it would be.

Now, when the cycle reverses and the ocean heat comes out, in addition to all the excess from human greenhouse, it's going to get even hotter much more rapidly. And yes it will be a "natural cycle" PLUS all the extra from human influence.

Add an upwards trend to an oscillating cycle (and there is the famous El Nino in the pacific)

So the evidence for anthropogenic global warming is still there, and not in any way disproven.

What this shows is that actual scientists do look at all the different 'natural cycles' which affect climate in addition to unnatural influences.

Ocean heat content:

www.nodc.noaa.gov...

No pause whatsoever, going up. Since oceans have a much bigger heat capacity than the atmosphere, this is a better (if delayed) measure of net warming.

I always thought warm/hot water rises the same as warm/hot air does, so how can warm water stay at the bottom of an ocean?

a reply to: pikestaff

It doesn't have to be warmer than the water at top, just warmer than what it would otherwise normally be. So if you get climate processes encouraging more turnover of surface heat into the ocean, then that heat can be transported by conduction or bulk movement deeper down.

And on the large scale there is very little frictional dissipation (viscocity) so there is plenty of currents of various forms to advect the water and its heat from here to there, as well as thermohaline circulation (salinity is very important).

a reply to: pikestaff

It doesn't have to be warmer than the water at top, just warmer than what it would otherwise normally be. So if you get climate processes encouraging more turnover of surface heat into the ocean, then that heat can be transported by conduction or bulk movement deeper down.

And on the large scale there is very little frictional dissipation (viscocity) so there is plenty of currents of various forms to advect the water and its heat from here to there, as well as thermohaline circulation (salinity is very important).

originally posted by: Silicis n Volvo
a reply to: network dude

the current state of Climate Science:

- There is a theory that increased CO2 in the atmosphere will cause warming. Therefore, any period of warming (eg. late 1970s to late 1990s) is PROOF our theory is correct

- There is a theory that the warming will cause all manner of extreme weather events. Therefore, any extreme weather event (regardless of how often they occurred in the past) are proof our theory is correct.

- The warming has taken a hiatus. This does not contradict our theory, but we have many more theories regarding what is causing it:

We have hypothesised that everything from volcanic eruptions and sulphur from Chinese power stations to heat being trapped deep in the oceans could be the cause.

or perhaps

A shift in the salinity of the north Atlantic triggered the effect around the turn of the century, the study says, as surface water there became saltier and more dense, sinking and taking surface heat down to depths of more than 300 metres.

or

The hiatus really is a patchwork problem of lots of different things, volcanoes, the Pacific, the Atlantic."

or

There is evidence that the hiatus is a northern hemisphere winter phenomenon,

I'd rather they just say they dont really know.

But either way the end of the world is still on its way. Unless we pay more tax

Most importantly, this paper is another a nail in the coffin of the idea that the hiatus is evidence that our projections of long term climate change need revising down. Variability in the ocean will not affect long-term climate trends but may mean we have a period of accelerated warming to look forward to.

So don't breath out just yet. We're still all doomed its just going to take a little longer. At least 15 years apparently.

But the finding suggests that a naturally occurring ocean cycle burying the heat will flip in around 15 years’ time, causing global temperature rises to accelerate again.

So while, the period of correlation between CO2 concentration rise and temperature lasted just 20 years (late 70s to late 90s) and the hiatus could now last over 15 years, the theory of disastrous climate change lives on!

If temperatures rise, if ice melts, if extreme weather occurs: that's evidence for climate change.

But If temperatures don't rise, if ice grows, if weather is just normal, well we will make sure we have another explanation for that, of course still related to climate change.

This, is my take on the current state of Climate Science!! We just dont know!

All I know is, climate change or no climate change. We are damaging the planet. Reducing waste and pollution and stopping the destruction of natural habitats is hardly going to do us any harm is it.

That was all fantastic well said.
I find it narrow minded that the IPCC never even considers that fluctuations on that million mile wide furnace in the sky can reap huge effects on earth.

Critical thinking time...

This 'theory' about the warm water pooling in the bottom of the Atlantic and southern oceans causing a temporary cooling-off period:

Has this just occurred recently?
Has it occurred before?
Do we even have records of these deep ocean temperatures that we can compare to records of climate changes in the past?
How far back do these records go?
Are they referenced with other natural events (i.e. volcanic eruptions, solar cycles) to eliminate other factors contributing to the warmer pools in the lower depths of the oceans?

I suggest that we didn't even have the technology to substantiate that this is a new occurence, therefore no proof that this is not a part of a different cycle (earth, solar, whatever). Without that first leg, this three-legged dog just falls flat.

And if that is the case (no records of deep-ocean temperatures going back till most recently) - the rest of this theory is worth as much as they can tax for it, and NOTHING MORE.

Some people buy whatever they are taught, and accept whatever they read if it looks like it comes from someone smarter than them, and do no analysis of what they present here. That is simply politics but not real science.

And...as the saying goes...garbage in, garbage out. I suspect garbage input into these theories, therefore...