Murder rates dropping as more states allow concealed weapons

originally posted by: NonsensicalUserName
a reply to: ArnoldNonymous

what about something like a national/standardized conceal carry permit?

No need for a standardized/federal permit (that just opens up a huge can of worms) depending on your home state just adding UT or AZ or FL to your home state permit and your covered in all the states.

Supposedly David Letterman read these 10 reasons on his show ... I did not watch the broadcast but was sent the list via an email.



Top Ten Reasons Why Men Prefer Guns Over Women

And here we go...

#10 - You can trade an old 44 for a new 22.

#9 - You can keep one gun at home and have another for when you're on the road.

#8 - If you admire a friend's gun and tell him so, he will probably let you try it out a few times.

#7 - Your primary gun doesn't mind if you keep another gun for a backup.

#6 - Your gun will stay with you even if you run out of ammo.

#5 - A gun doesn't take up a lot of closet space.

#4 - Guns function normally every day of the month.

#3 - A gun doesn't ask , "Do these new grips make me look fat?"

#2 - A gun doesn't mind if you go to sleep after you use it.

And the Number One reason
Why Men Prefer Guns over women.....

#1 - You can buy a silencer

Every statistic I have seen over the last 5 years has shown crime drops once concealed carry is permitted. Gun haters hate that and so do bad guys for they never know if someone will turn from being a victim into a self defense expert..

So I guess we won't see a lot of the usual suspects spouting their nonsense in this thread? At last we have some peace and quite

a reply to: wulff

Got my CCW this year, smartest move I made in years. Carry my glock 17 with me everywhere concealed of course. I would like to thank the gun grabbing fringe for inspiring me to become a responsible gun owner despite them.

Violent criminals beware people like me are everywhere

I see the deterrent value in it, but not so much concealed carry. I can't think of a better deterrent to potential criminals than seeing citizens walking around with pistols. Police can't be everywhere at all times. I believe Texas has an open-carry policy.

Correlation =/= Causation

Take a course in statistics before you start firing your guns into the air.

Here in Arizona we can legally open carry OR conceal carry.

We also do not need a permit to conceal carry here.

You see a lot of people open carrying their sidearm but just because you don't "see" one don't mean we don't have one.

Isn't it supposedly legal to open carry in some if not most states anyway?.

How bout we go back there and eliminate the middle man.

Can't people see that it's only about developing a market for something we can get for free?.

Open carry works the best, no guesswork required.

a reply to: TKDRL

I dont know about most states, but Tennessee only had open carry as an option. I have since moved to Texas and there is cc but no open carry.

There is limited open carry in certain places and conditions, but that is limited to rifles and shotguns. Open carry of pistols is not permitted or licensed.

While I personally don't doubt that the sharp spikes in legal gun ownership and concealed carry have had a positive effect on homicide rates and violent crime in recent years, I also think you have to be careful in making a definitive statement to that effect. As others have said, correlation does not necessarily mean causation. It may be true, and I think it probably is, but it can't be proven.

The only thing we can say with a degree of certainty is that the statistical evidence contradicts the assertion of the anti-2A crowd that more firearms results in more firearm related crime. That hasn't proven true. It may be true that firearm-related violent crime would have dropped at a faster rate in the absence of concealed carry laws and with fewer firearms, but looking at the numbers from the 1970s and 1980s, I think that's a difficult sell.

I've said it for decades:
(and no I didn't coin it)

"An armed society is a polite one"

a reply to: wulff

I appreciate the fact that you didn't explicitly note a causation between the increase in CCDW permits to the drop in violent crime. While I believe that is a contributing factor, I don't give the average criminal enough credit to believe that they are researching the rise/fall of CCDW permits and molding their actions around that.

I would say that there are other factors contributing, like police forces making a comeback after many downsized due to budget issues during the economic downturn--stronger police presence in crime-ridden neighborhoods does way more for crime deterrence than does a statistic that maybe a handful of violent criminals are cognizant about.

Now, I DO believe that this goes against the narrative that an increase in the amount of law-abiding citizens that carry firearms brings with it more wild-west types of violent crimes, so that is the best part about this type of statistic (which is pretty well-known by those of us who actually argue our 'side' with statistics and facts).

Good post!

The decline in murder rates was already in affect and the rise of mass shootings and death by gun from suicide and accident are on the rise.

Though their might be a slight correlation (it does not appear to be statistically significant to me), it is certainly not evidence of causation.

Also, from the footnotes

To estimate this we ran a couple simple regressions on the murder rate on the percentage of adult population with permits as well as without state and year fixed effects. There is a lot of noise in the estimates both because their permit number come from many different years as well as the estimated number of murders in 2013. These estimates have a great deal of measurement error and should only be taken as suggestive. That said, the simplest estimate regressing the murder rate on the percentage of the adult population with permits produces a coefficient and absolute statistics of -12.68 (1.66). With fixed effects, the estimate was 6.8 (0.82).

It doesn't include their p-value so I don't know how good the coefficient really is.

With 30,000 deaths per year due to guns we need to consider their overall impact even if murder rates slightly decline (which they are quite low anyway, over all) so the gain probably does not exceed the cost.

I don't know

Until more independent work is done, I will reserve some judgment.

mediamatters.org...

These kinds of things don't bode well for his data though.

originally posted by: underduck
With 30,000 deaths per year due to guns...

Not sure if you are aware but the majority of those are attributed to suicide.

What nobody wants to blame the cold weather for the drop, just like the Chicago thread?

originally posted by: wulff
A dramatic spike in the number of Americans with permits to carry concealed weapons coincides with an equally stark drop in violent crime, according to a new study, which Second Amendment advocates say makes the case that more guns can mean safer streets.

The study by the Crime Prevention Research Center found that 11.1 million Americans now have permits to carry concealed weapons, up from 4.5 million in 2007. The 146 percent increase has come even as both murder and violent crime rates have dropped by 22 percent.

Between 2007 and the preliminary estimates for 2013, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.4 per 100,000.
When criminals think THEY may become the victims they go after the 'softer targets'.
As much as anti-gun people want to admit, the statistics are showing drop in murder since states tired of the left attacking the constitution fight back!

Source PDF File ( Direct Download)

so, how do you account for this.....
247wallst.com...

a reply to: wulff

As much as anti-gun people want to admit, the statistics are showing drop in murder since states tired of the left attacking the constitution fight back!

im glad the murder rates are dropping but as any scientist will tell you correlation does not imply causation.

originally posted by: BlackboxInquiry
I've said it for decades:
(and no I didn't coin it)

"An armed society is a polite one"

just like in Somalia, Sudan, Congo, Iberia, Sierra leone, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya...wonderful places to live in

originally posted by: PhoenixOD
a reply to: wulff

As much as anti-gun people want to admit, the statistics are showing drop in murder since states tired of the left attacking the constitution fight back!

im glad the murder rates are dropping but as any scientist will tell you correlation does not imply causation.

hey, hey...we don't use science here....geez, we use catch phrases, groupspeak, innuendo, misdirection, religious beliefs and misinformation....

originally posted by: thisguyrighthere
a reply to: wulff

There is not enough to show that permits are contributing much if anything to the reduction of crime.

Doesnt mean the stat is worthless.

At the very least we can say that more permits and more people carrying has not lead to an increase in crime as so many anti's have promised us would be the case.

I'm still waiting for the streets to run with blood. Been waiting 30 years now. Got my hip waders and everything.

The rates mentioned are for the whole USA and not for the fools still living in the no gun zone cities.