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originally posted by: TruthxIsxInxThexMist
He warned that the death rate from the current outbreak has now risen to 70%. It was previously estimated at about 50%.
it seems the Mortality rate is rising now, so it could be mutating faster than expected or it could just be more people infected.
If we are seeing such a logarithmic uptick in cases, we need the same rapid increase in trained health care workers and supplies to take care of the sick, and that isn't happening
originally posted by: Olivine
The videos from this morning's symposium and panel discussion are available here.
The 1st video has all of the presenters and runs over 3 hours. The second video is the panel question and answer session.
If you want to skip to the brutally honest talk given by Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, director at CIDRAP, skip forward to the 02:21:00 mark in the 1st video to begin at his introduction.
originally posted by: Olivine
Here is my transcription (any inaccuracies are mine, taken from the 02:55:06 mark):
"Well, you know what? I was one of those people early on, explaining why HIV was never going to be a respiritory pathogen. Because we understood the physiology of the lung, we understood which cells the virus was in, and we understood that that was not going to be an issue.
That is different than this.
Number 1, we've had examples of sub-human primates, were transmission of ebola virus has occured via the respiritory
issuetract. We had one, where pigs transmitted to sub-human primates. And it was interesting, because one of the bioinformatics people commented a lot on this said, " well, you see that's not a problem, because that is just from cleaning up the litter on the floor that did it."
Which is even worse, if they had thought through it. The virus was deposited on the floor and then re-aerosolized. Literally, that even makes it worse. Okay.
But I think the point being here, is that some people are concerned because we don't understand why that virus passed the 1st time, in the sub-human primates.
Today, I've been given permission, something I've known about for a few weeks, when I wrote the piece, I knew this, and it concerned me greatly.
Gary Kobinger and colleagues, at Winnipeg, the Canadian National Lab, actually took one of the strains from Guinea, and put it into macaques a little over a month and a half ago. What they saw was remarkable. It was unlike any of the ebola viruses they had seen in monkeys. It was much, much more severe. The pathology of the lungs was remarkable. And as Gary said, he is one of the most prominent ebola virologists in the world, "It is very worrisome to me, about what I saw there."
Maybe this is a different virus? Maybe there is that possibility, because that much virus in the lungs means maybe somebody might cough it up and maybe you might hit a cycle (I'm unclear on that last phrase).
Now, I'm not saying that here to scare people. Plan "B"? What the hell are we going to do if suddenly see the potential for transmission that could be respiratory in nature? Do we have a plan? I don't know if it is a 1 in a million chance, a 1 in 100,000 chance. The point of it is, if we can't talk about that, because someone says, "you're scaring people". And you know, the blowback has been substantial. You know, I guess I'm getting old because it doesn't me so much any more."
He concludes by saying he hopes someone has a plan B.
I know this was long, so thanks for reading.
“Ebola got a head start on us,” he said. “It is far ahead of us, it is running faster than us, and it is winning the race. If Ebola wins, we the peoples of the United Nations lose so very much…,” he said. “We either stop Ebola now or we face an entirely unprecedented situation for which we do not have a plan,” Mr. Banbury told the Council via video link from the operation’s headquarters in Ghana.
A Paris-bound Air France was grounded in Madrid on Thursday after passenger fell ill. The sick man, who had just returned from Africa has been isolated while tests are carried out.
A United Nations trust fund, seeking $1 billion to fight Ebola in West Africa, has received a deposit of just $100,000 nearly a month after it was set up to allow for rapid, flexible funding of the most urgent needs on the ground.
Erin Hohlfelder, policy director for global health for international campaign and advocacy group ONE, said the response to the U.N. appeal was "pretty disappointing" and that it was important to coordinate contributions so "we don't let aid resources go to waste." "We have enough speeches and enough rhetoric that it starts to feel the case is solved," she said. "We're really concerned that until those speeches and that rhetoric translate into real services on the ground, we're not doing much to ebb the flow of this crisis."
WHO is alarmed by media reports of suspected Ebola cases imported into new countries that are said, by government officials or ministries of health, to be discarded as “negative” within hours after the suspected case enters the country.
Such rapid determination of infection status is impossible, casting grave doubts on some of the official information that is being communicated to the public and the media.
(Reuters) - At least 4,877 people have died in the world's worst recorded outbreak of Ebola, and at least 9,936 cases of the disease had been recorded as of Oct. 19, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday, but the true toll may be three times as much. The WHO has said real numbers of cases are believed to be much higher than reported: by a factor of 1.5 in Guinea, 2 in Sierra Leone and 2.5 in Liberia, while the death rate is thought to be about 70 percent of all cases. That would suggest a toll of almost 15,000.
Among the thousands of cases are 443 health care workers, 244 of whom have died. The WHO said it was undertaking extensive investigations to determine why so many had caught the disease. "Early indications are that a substantial proportion of infections occurred outside the context of Ebola treatment and care," it said.
A U.N. plan to stop the epidemic, known as 70-70-60, involves isolating at least 70 percent of cases and safely burying at least 70 percent of those who die by Dec. 1, a 60-day deadline from the start of the plan. That is supposed to rise to 100 percent by the 90-day deadline on Jan. 1. The number of isolation beds had increased substantially to 1,126 but remained only 25 percent of the 4,388 expected to be needed in 50 Ebola treatment units. There were also firm commitments from foreign medical teams to staff only 30 units. Without those beds in those units, families have to care for sick relatives at home and risk infection. The WHO also estimates 28 laboratories are needed in the three worst-hit countries, with 12 now in place, and 20,000 staff will be needed to keep track of people who have had contact with Ebola patients and may be at risk. The three worst-hit countries will also need 230 dead-body-management teams by Dec. 1, it said. They have 140.
turns out to be accurate.
"Early indications are that a substantial proportion of infections occurred outside the context of Ebola treatment and care,"