Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

originally posted by: clenz

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: clenz

Yes, joho99 is right - it's a worst case scenario and argument FOR additional support. You're right too - the 500,000 to 1.4 million end-January projection assumes no additional support, and also, recalculates under/missing case counts.

Any which way, it pretty much sucks.

Agreed, it sucks. Hopefully though we can do something to fix those numbers.

Hopefully. It will take a huge influx of manpower, coordination, medical personnel.... And it will take using existent structures instead of wasting resources to build new treatment clinics.

Any chance you think that will really happen? Especially as the world is dealing with "multiple crises"?

You may want to check this site out:

www.chron.com...

A lot of upto date info and predictions with charts! I don't have the patience at the moment to save the photos, convert them if needed and upload to this page... sorry but it won't take long to check out the page!

Just some facts & figures from the page:

1.4 million: The number of Ebola cases expected by Jan. 20, 2015, if nothing changes in the way patients are treated.

71%: The death rate of this epidemic: The percentage of people who, after becoming infected with Ebola, die as a direct result of the virus.
718: Number of new Ebola cases between Sept. 8 and Sept. 14 in Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone, as reported by the WHO.

14,607: The approximate number undetected Ebola cases.

The official case count is 5,843, including 2,803 deaths (according to the WHO), but the CDC predicts the actual number of cases is 2.5 times higher than the official figure.
15 days: The time it takes for Ebola cases to double in Liberia, according to CDC estimates. In Sierra Leone, cases are doubling every 30 days.
82%: The percentage of Ebola patients in Liberia who are being cared for outside hospitals or other isolated settings necessary to reduce the risk of transmission. To stop the epidemic from spreading further, this number needs to be 30% or lower.

49 days: The number of days after recovery that a man previously infected with Ebola can still transmit the virus through his semen.
14x: The number of times larger the current Ebola eruption is than the last largest outbreak, which hit 425 cases in Uganda in 2000.

As of March 2014, the current flare-up was already eight times the size of that outbreak. As of Sept. 2014, more people have been infected and died of Ebola than as a result of all the previous outbreaks combined.

20x: The number of times more health personnel needed to beat back the epidemic, according to the WHO. That's 20,000 national and 1,000 international staff.
54.2%: The percentage of health care workers who have died after becoming infected with the virus, despite being well-informed and having full access to treatment.

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

Yes, it's bad and getting worse, fast. Now at over 3000 reported deaths out of over 6500 reported cases.

West Africa Ebola death toll passes 3,000 -WHO
DAKAR, Sept 26 Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:07pm EDT

The death toll from an outbreak of Ebola in West Africa has risen to at least 3,091 out of 6,574 probable, suspected and confirmed cases, the World Health Organisation said on Friday.

What about all of the money,

Here in Liberia, everyone is excited about the millions of US dollars being poured in to “fight Ebola,” and everyone wants a piece of the pie.  A certain NGO out in rural Liberia quarantined a village, claiming they’d tested and found three cases. They applied for and received US$ 250,000 to fight Ebola in this village.  They brought in a few sacks of rice and some chlorine.  The villagers mobbed the trucks and carried off the plunder. 

[1]

material,

NGO’s spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to level earth with heavy equipment over a month in order to build tent cities capable of isolating and treating Ebola, but then not even giving them IV fluids or food, so that the Ebola patients sneak out of the tents and cross the street looking for food.

Dozens if not hundreds of US$70,000 Land Cruisers are taking foreigners around town to hotels, bars, clubs, and fancy guest houses so they can feel comfortable while they fight Ebola, and yet they can’t even collect the dead bodies that could expose so many more!

[1]

and manpower

ABIDJAN – The United States Embassy today announced that two health experts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), based in the United States, arrived in Côte d’Ivoire this week to assist the government with efforts to prevent the spread of Ebola into the country.

...

The U.S. currently has approximately 100 specialists throughout the affected countries working on activities such as the distribution of health equipment and emergency supplies, support for public health messaging, and technical expertise to assist with issues such as airport screening and contact tracing.

In addition, the CDC now has more than 70 staff deployed in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone assisting with various response efforts, including assistance with Ebola incident control and management, laboratory testing, surveillance, contact tracing, database management, and health education. All these efforts are expected to help prevent, detect, and stop the spread of Ebola in affected countries.

[2]

?

In the face of

These are the latest Ebola outbreak charts updated with the newest data from WHO that covered through September 21, 2014. I'm splitting the charts over four posts since there are a lot of different charts now. This is post 1 of 4. 

According to WHO (counting confirmed, probable, and suspected Ebola cases and deaths), as of the end of 21 September 2014 there are: 

6263 reported cases 
2917 reported deaths 

[3]

1 - “EVERYONE IS EXCITED ABOUT THE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS” — Adventist Mission Doctor Speaks Out on the Ebola Crisis and Foreign Aid–Monrovia, Liberia, September 15, 2014.

2 - Two American Experts Arrive in Côte d’Ivoire this Week for Ebola Prevention

3 - ikonoklast update to his excellent thread, Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

If this virus is the one that does us in, it will be because of the inept and corrupt who are in charge of seeing to the problem and really should know better.

Not sure if we are still updating this Thread wuth latest news but I will post here anyway:



Sierra Leone has seen one of the most deadly days since the start of the Ebola outbreak after 121 people died and scores of new infections were diagnosed yesterday.

The figures, which covered the period through Saturday, put the total number of deaths at 678, up from 557 the day before. The daily statistics compiled by Sierra Leone's Emergency Operations Centre also showed 81 new cases of the hemorrhagic fever.


From Oct 6th. www.itv.com...

And from the same link, Spanish nurse who treated the Priest a Month ago has the virus! This is a Month after she treated him...

A Spanish nurse who has tested positive for Ebola after treating a patient with the virus, is thought to be the first person to have contracted the disease outside of Africa.

The nurse had treated a priest who was repatriated to Madrid with Ebola last month.

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

That's interesting about the nurse who treated the priest. I hadn't realised that is what happened. I'd assumed she had been brought into the country. So, could it be 'airborne' or very difficult to destroy or even live a lot longer than expected? Or is it 'something else'?

a reply to: jadedANDcynical
That is a very interesting post 'jadedandcynical'. Could it be 'profitable' to have ebola in your country ..... for some? Would it be worth talking up the figures?

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Here's the one that broke my heart.

Ebola Help for Sierra Leone Is Nearby, but Delayed on the Docks

FREETOWN, Sierra Leone — It has been sitting idly on the docks for nearly two months: a shipping container packed with protective gowns, gloves, stretchers, mattresses and other medical supplies needed to help fight Sierra Leone’s exploding Ebola epidemic.

There are 100 bags and boxes of hospital linens, 100 cases of protective suits, 80 cases of face masks and other items — in all, more than $140,000 worth of medical equipment locked inside a dented container at the port since Aug. 9.

Hundreds of people have died of Ebola in Sierra Leone since then, and health workers have endured grave shortages of lifesaving supplies, putting them at even greater risk in a country reeling from the virus.

……Mr. Bah said he thought the equipment would be welcomed by the struggling authorities, and he said he expected the shipping fee of $6,500 would be a small detail for Sierra Leone. According to the official, the government has already received well over $40 million in cash from international donors to fight Ebola.

The shipping company, as a good-will gesture in a moment of crisis, had agreed to send the goods without being paid first, Mr. Bah said. But no more. Three other containers of similar value await shipment from the United States, he said, halted by the government’s long refusal to pay.

“We will appreciate if the payment is made quickly so that the medical supplies will be sent directly to the affected or targeted areas,” Mr. Bah wrote to the government on Aug. 16.

Instead, top government officials argued over the fee, said that the proper procedures had not been followed, and finally brushed aside the official urging that the supplies be let in, saying they wanted to hear nothing more about it.

“They are blaming us for shipping in without authorization,” Mr. Bah said. “It appears all they are interested in is cash donations. And all we have are supplies.”

The Ebola epidemic could cost African countries over $30 billion by the end of 2015

Do they actually have 30 billion spare?

Sierra Leone is even struggling to pay the grave diggers.
Ebola Outbreak: Sierra Leone Grave Diggers Strike over Demand for 'Danger Money'

Expect a surge in numbers if they continue to strike.

Considering

Grave diggers, who cover the capital Freetown, have been burying between 17 and 35 bodies each day.

More updates on the numbers:

The worst Ebola outbreak on record has killed 3,879 people out of 8,033 cases by the end of Oct. 5, with no evidence that the epidemic was being brought under control in West Africa, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday.

The situation in Liberia continued to deteriorate, with a recorded death toll of 2,210 so far and 200 suspected or probable new cases in Monrovia in each of the past three weeks, and the reappearance of Ebola in Grand Cape Mount District for the first time in three weeks, it said.

A reported fall in the number of new cases in Liberia was unlikely to be genuine, rather caused by overwhelmed staff failing to record accurate data.

in.news.yahoo.com...

It's certainly going to get worse... last death toll I read (which was only a few days ago was 3,459. It's now at 3,879 and that's not including the one's which havn't been found yet or other family members are hiding in their homes.

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

I was just reading about Liberia on globalhealth and what i found worrying is that as of mid September ebola has become the leading cause of death in Liberia.

What’s the Relative Impact Compared to Other Diseases? The available numbers also indicate that Ebola had, as of mid-September, already become the leading cause of death in Liberia. The WHO has estimated a case fatality rate of 70% for the West Africa Ebola outbreak; applying this rate to the officially reported cases from Liberia for the last 7 weeks, we find Ebola caused, on average, 263 deaths per week in the country. By comparison, the top three leading causes of deaths in the country – malaria, lower respiratory infections, and diarrheal diseases (using data from the global burden of disease study for 2010) – caused an estimated 140, 89, and 88 deaths per week, respectively. This means at its current rate, Ebola is killing people in Liberia at approximately twice the rate of the country’s previously biggest cause of death and, ominously, this rate is likely to increase for the foreseeable future as the epidemic continues to expand.

www.globalhealth.org...


To think it literally did that in months is not a good sign.

Ebola crisis: global response has ‘failed miserably’, says World Bank chief Jim Kim demands $20bn fund and says ‘we failed miserably’ as cases in Spain and US fuel fear of western pandemic


Good luck with getting 20 billion considering we could not even scrape together 1 billion.

a reply to: joho99

www.buenosairesherald.com...

"The man, who was being kept isolated, had arrived in Brazil on September 19 travelling from Guinea, and on Wednesday he informed he had a fever."

if he has ebola, that was an 19 incubation (from the day he left) (if it is ebola) and if so, did he catch it the day before he left??? a few days before he left.

Its up over 4,000 deaths now.

The number of people known to have died amid the worst Ebola outbreak on record has topped 4,000, the World Health Organization said Friday. The Geneva-based United Nations agency said the virus had killed 4,033 people out of 8,399 cases over seven months in seven countries by Oct. 8.

They also say this:

"In Guinea and Sierra Leone, the number of infections is projected to double every month. In Liberia, infections are projected to double every two weeks,"


www.nbcnews.com...

Hello to everyone. Now my frien is trapped int the hotel in Karlsbad, Czech Republic. Right now the area near karsbad plasa hotel is closed because of the new Ebola accident. He records video from the hotel window. Watch please.

www.youtube.com...
www.youtube.com...
www.youtube.com...

a reply to: 111moroz111

thanks for the vids,, here's a screen for u.

new video coming right now

a reply to: 111moroz111
Thanks for keeping us up to date!

a reply to: 111moroz111

So... that case was confirmed to be ebola?

just goes to show what happens when they don't stop passengers from flying from those infected area's.

originally posted by: TruthxIsxInxThexMist
a reply to: 111moroz111

So... that case was confirmed to be ebola?

just goes to show what happens when they don't stop passengers from flying from those infected area's.

This case is happening right now. Not confirmed.